Low fertility to keep Bangladesh population at 20 crore in 2045

Bangladesh's population growth will drop to 0.37% in 2045 from the current 1.11% because of the continuous low fertility rate, taking the number of people to just a little higher than 20 crore in that year, according to a new UN report.

The population number will reach a peak of around 20.69 crore in 2061 before it falls to 17.64 crore by the end of this century as forecasted by the United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs.

The UN's report titled "World Population Prospects 2022" released on 11 July showed that over the last 50 years, fertility rate has fallen markedly in Bangladesh. 

The UN estimated that in 1972, a family used to have seven children per woman on average, which dropped to 1.98 children in 2021 and the number is expected to further decline to 1.76 in 2045, 1.74 in 2061, and 1.7 in 2100.

Falling fertility rate means the country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.

Professor Mohammad Mainul Islam, former chairman of Department of Population Sciences, University of Dhaka, said, "Family planning workers, who worked from the grassroots level of the country, are the key players behind this success story [a lower fertility rate]." 

Media campaigns, female education and employment also played a vital role, he also said.

"We are passing a very good time in terms of achieving the first demographic dividend that will continue until 2035 or 2037. We will benefit from the first demographic dividend, if all policies function together regarding planned age structure, education and health, employment generation and good governance," he continued.

The second demographic dividend will come after 2047-2048 when the country may see an increasing aging population in the labour market and that could be a problem if they do not get proper healthcare and social support from the government, he noted. 

"To capitalise on our current human resources, we need to invest more in quality and market-oriented technical education, health and employment generation," he added.

Bangladesh's Population Policy 2012 that was valid till 2015 needs to be updated. 

Moreover, there is a need for stronger family planning in both urban and rural areas, Mainul Islam said.

In 2021, the average fertility of the world's population stood at 2.3 births per woman over a lifetime, having fallen from about 5 births per woman in 1950. Global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman by 2050.

"Further actions by governments aimed at reducing fertility would have little impact on the pace of population growth between now and mid-century, because of the youthful age structure of today's global population," said John Wilmoth, director of the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Nevertheless, the cumulative effect of lower fertility, if maintained over several decades, could be a more substantial deceleration of global population growth in the second half of the century, he also said.

Even though Bangladesh's population was growing from 6.93 crore in 1972 to 16.94 crore in 2021, the rate of growth has slowed down. The growth was 2.57% in 1972, which dropped to 1.11% in 2021.

With a just 0.37% growth rate, the UN expected that the number of people in Bangladesh will peak at around 20.69 crore in 2061, before falling down to 17.64 crore by the end of the century.

Meanwhile, the UN estimated that with 1,301 residents per square kilometre, population density in Bangladesh was much higher than in some world's most populous countries, such as China, India, United States, Indonesia and Pakistan in 2021.

It is expected to be higher at 1,542 people per square kilometre in 2045, and 1,590 in 2061, before falling down to 1,355 by the end of the century.

India to surpass China as most-populous nation in 2023

India is on course to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023, with each counting more than 1.4 billion population this year.

Meanwhile, the world's population is projected to reach 8 billion by November 15 this year, could grow to 8.5 billion in 2030, and 10.4 billion in 2100, as the pace of mortality slows.

More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.

The 46 least developed countries are among the world's fastest-growing. Many are projected to double in population between 2022 and 2050, putting additional pressure on resources and posing challenges to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, read the report.

However, the population of 61 countries is projected to decrease by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050, driven by a fall in fertility.