Foreign jobs hit again by pandemic 

The second wave of Covid-19 has hit the gradually improving trend of overseas employment amid the pandemic, though the Gulf economies' recovery is on track. 

The country's manpower export fell by around 56% in April and May compared to the previous two months of this year, available data show.  

Manpower recruiters now fear that the fresh lockdown from July 1 may worsen the situation as around 50,000 newly recruited workers could plunge into uncertainty about going to Middle Eastern destinations.

The slower process of passport and visa issuance, high quarantine bill in destination countries and high ticket prices, added to a shortage of international flights amid the lockdown, has slowed down the whole recruitment process.  

As the Gulf countries gained access to vaccines earlier than most nations, their mass vaccination campaigns are expected to speed up their economic recovery in the current situation. 

The World Bank has forecast that the Gulf region's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.2% this year, revising its earlier forecast of 1.6% released in January this year.

The development lender, in its flagship publication "Global Economic Prospects", also said the growth is projected to reach 3.4% in 2022. The projection was released on 8 June.

The recovery trend of the Gulf economy and a resumption of  flights to Middle Eastern countries had a positive impact on the overseas employment of Bangladeshi workers till March this year. 

Around 61,000 Bangladeshis were employed in different countries in March this year, up from 49,510 in February and 35,732 in January, according to the Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training (BMET).

However, total overseas employment fell to 34,000 in April and 14,000 in May this year.

Thousands of migrants faced uncertainty after the government cancelled all international flights on 14 April amid a strict Covid-19 lockdown. Later, the authorities decided to operate special flights for migrants bound for five countries.

In such a situation, a group of recruiters have called for keeping the manpower export sector out of the purview of the nationwide weeklong fresh lockdown starting on July 1. 

"The future of migrants who have obtained visas and those spending their vacation here will become uncertain if the manpower sector remains closed during the fresh lockdown.

More than Tk150 crore have been paid for non-refundable tickets and quarantine hotel bookings in the destination countries for thousands of migrants", said M Tipu Sultan, President,

Recruiting Agency Oikya Parishad, an association of private recruiting agencies. 

He requested that international flights be operated for as long as destination countries recruit migrants amid the pandemic.

On average, around 60,000 Bangladeshis obtained jobs in different countries, mostly in the Middle East, every month before the pandemic. Covid-19 brought the normal trend of overseas employment to a halt last year. There was no migration during April-June. In August 2020, the Middle East job markets reopened.

More than 2.17 lakh Bangladeshi migrants flew to different destinations last year, according to BMET. Among them, 36,451 were employed from July to December.

The countries that have reopened their labour markets for Bangladeshis are Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Jordan and Singapore. 

Saudi Arabia is the top destination for Bangladeshi migrants, generating 74% of all overseas employment for them between January and May this year. The oil-rich country recruited 10,512 Bangladeshis in May, 23879 in April, 44,957 in March, 38,396 in February and 26,650 in January.

"The Saudi embassy in Dhaka is now releasing 10-12 thousand passports with visa stamping per week while it was more than that in before Covid. But the process may come to a stop in the fresh lockdown," said Shamim Ahmed Chowdhury Noman, former secretary general of Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agencies (Baira).

"We from Baira met with the Saudi ambassador in mid-June, urging him to make the recruitment process faster and include in the embassy listing all registered recruiting agencies working in Bangladesh. The ambassador assured us of strengthening the process," he added.   

After KSA, Oman recruited 19,042 Bangladeshis this year, the second-highest number of foreign jobs. 

Although the UAE labour market has remained closed for Bangladeshi migrants since 2012, migrant workers can find employment after going there on visit visas.

"There is an opportunity for workers from some countries to go to the UAE for three months on visit visas. They can then convert those into work visas and stay there for a certain period according to the job contracts," said Shamim Ahmed Chowdhury Noman.

"However, the UAE is offering to recruit workers through direct employment visas. But we cannot respond as getting passports has become a much delayed process amid the pandemic. As such, people interested in going abroad cannot do so," he added.  

"Around 600 UAE-bound workers are in the process of going there through my agency, but the lockdown has delayed the process," he added.   

The UAE is recruiting Bangladeshi migrants as construction workers, security guards and cleaners with a salary of 1,000 dirhams (Tk23,090), according to recruiters.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh's remittance inflow is to hit a record high this fiscal year as migrants have already sent around $21.71 billion in the first 11 months from July to May, which was the highest since the financial year 1991-92.

High ticket prices yet to reach pre-pandemic level

All local and foreign airlines operating international flights have doubled or tripled ticket prices amid the pandemic, resulting in a rise in migration costs from Bangladesh, according to manpower recruiters.

They said migration costs would have been less if ticket prices were normal.

A Saudi Arabia-bound worker has to pay around Tk70,000-80,000 for a ticket, which was Tk25,000-30,000 in the pre-Covid-19 period. The situation is the same for workers migrating to other Middle Eastern countries. 

Recruiting agency owners said there is no rational ground for increasing ticket prices as migrants from other countries, like Nepal, India, and Pakistan, are not facing this problem.

Gulf economies' recovery is on track

The World Bank has forecast in its publication, "Global Economic Prospects", that Saudi Arabia – the world's biggest oil exporter and the biggest remittance hotspot for Bangladesh – expects a 2.4% GDP growth in 2021, recovering from a deep 4.1% contraction last year. In January this year, there was a projection of a 5.4% drop in 2020 and a forecast of a 2% growth this year.

The bank said an instant payment system has been launched in Saudi Arabia, guarantees and forbearance measures have been extended, and working rules for expatriates loosened.

Despite being the slowest vaccinator in the Gulf, Oman saw the biggest positive revision among Gulf economies, from expectations of only a 0.5% growth this year to a forecast of 2.5%.

Following a spike in Covid-19 cases, Oman reimposed a curfew from 20 June and suspended all commercial activities from 8 p.m. until 4 a.m, reports Reuters.

Following the highest growth revision for Oman, Kuwait is now expected to grow by 2.4% this year as against a forecast of 0.5% in January this year.

The economy of Bahrain, the highest growth driver of the region, is estimated to grow by 3.3% this year, higher than the previous forecast of 2.2%.

In Qatar and the UAE, significant progress of vaccination campaigns helped boost activity in early 2021, as highlighted by the bank.

Forecasts for Qatar were kept unchanged for this year, with the country expected to post a 3% growth. But the economy is to grow further to 4.1% in 2022 versus the previous forecast of 3%.

With a vaccination rate of 97 per 100 people and along with its pace of growth Qatar will enjoy the crown of the highest economic growth of 4.5% in the region by 2023. 

The UAE – the Gulf's second-largest economy and the world's top vaccinated country– will see a 1.2% growth this year and the figure will grow further to 2.5% in 2022, rebounding from a 6.1% contraction in 2020. The growth figures for the UAE are slightly revised from the January projections.

It is noted that in Qatar and the UAE, significant progress in their vaccination campaigns helped boost activity in early 2021.