FY24 inflation soars to 13-year high

Infographic: TBS

The country's average inflation exceeded the target for the just-ended fiscal year by a significant margin, fuelled by persistently elevated prices of goods and services influenced by economic factors both at home and abroad.

In the fiscal 2023-24, inflation rose to 9.73%, surpassing the government's original target of 6% and the revised target of 7.5%, according to data released yesterday by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

The average food price inflation reached double digits, growing to 10.65% in the last fiscal year, as per BSS data.

In the just-concluded fiscal year, both headline inflation and food inflation have reached a 13-year high.

In FY23, food inflation stood at 8.71%, which was 14.11% in FY12.

BSS data shows that average inflation rose to 9.02% during the fiscal 2022-23, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The average inflation rate was less than 6% from FY16 to FY21, but it rose to 6.15% in FY22, marking the highest since FY11, when inflation reached 10.92% 13 years ago.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, a private think tank, said inflation has been increasing for the past two years.

Initially, the government did not take proactive measures to control inflation, such as implementing necessary economic tools like monetary policy. These measures were only implemented much later. Steps in monetary policy have been taken since last July to curb inflation, but these measures do not have an immediate impact on inflation, she added.

"Inflation control using only monetary policy is not possible in our country. Monetary policy alone does not work where market mismanagement is rampant. In our country, market manipulation and oligopoly behaviour disrupt the natural tendency of price reduction through demand and supply in the market," said the economist.

"An example of this is the artificially inflated prices of domestically produced goods even when there is ample supply. That means there is a syndicate involved."

Fahmida Khatun also mentioned that to control inflation, authorities need to coordinate fiscal policy with monetary policy. In the last financial year, monetary policy was not contractionary; instead, expansionary monetary policy was implemented.

"The government's expenditure has not decreased. The administrative expenses of the government were very high. These expenses remain high in the current financial year as well. In such a situation, inflation cannot be controlled by tightening monetary policy alone," she added.

Zaid Bakht, an economist and former research director at the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, said inflation could not be controlled for two reasons.

One reason is the currency exchange rate; the dollar has increased from Tk110 to Tk117, which is a significant jump. The second reason is the interest rate, he said.

"Although we have increased the interest rate, we have not yet seen its full effect. The money supply is still not under control. Due to these reasons, the target of inflation control has not been achieved," he added.

Inflation slightly eases in June

However, inflation eased slightly to 9.72% in June, the final month of the last fiscal year, marking a decrease of 0.17 percentage points from the previous month, according to BBS data.

Headline inflation also declined marginally in June due to lower food and non-food inflation. On a point-to-point basis, inflation stood at 9.72%, down from 9.89% the previous month, according to BBS data.

Food inflation during this period decreased to 10.42% from 10.76% in May, while non-food inflation eased to 9.15% from 9.19% in the previous month.

When asked, M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, a think tank, said that although some measures were implemented late to control inflation over the last six to nine months, they have now begun to show effectiveness.

One measure is contractionary monetary policy, which has restrained private credit growth and fully liberalised interest rates, likely contributing to a slight reduction in inflation, he explained.

The economist also said, "In addition, to enhance the supply chain, the opening of letters of credit has been increased. As a result, the supply of imported goods has improved compared to before, and there have been some changes in the delivery system. Due to these factors, price inflation decreased slightly in June, but it still remains high."

"The dollar rate has increased in the past one-and-a-half months. However, its effect has yet to be felt. We will see its impact after two to three months," he added.

According to BBS data, rural inflation on a point-to-point basis was 9.81% in June, compared to 9.99% in May. In June, food inflation was 10.39% and non-food inflation was 9.26%, while in May, these figures were 10.73% and 9.31%, respectively.

Inflation in urban areas was 9.58% in June, down from 9.72% in May. In June, food inflation was 10.54%, and non-food inflation was 8.98%, compared to 10.86% and 9.03% in May, respectively.

Meanwhile, the national wage rate (general) increased to 7.95% in June from 7.88% in May. Wage growth has been below inflation for the past 29 months.