Bangladesh is fighting disasters on many fronts. But how ready is it?

On a stormy October night, Dhaka collapsed as city dwellers were toiling through long commutes amid the continuous drizzle, which had caused massive traffic congestion on roads.

Later that night, many homes braved through darkness as the city encountered a mass power outage due to the rain, lasting till the strike of dawn.

This was but a taste of what may come, except perhaps more magnified.

The climate pattern was unpredictable last year. Even now, at the height of winter, the chills can barely be felt.

In 2023, four consecutive cyclones washed over Bangladesh. 

Earlier in May, the country first got wind of Cyclone Mocha. 

Cyclone Hamoon, hit Bangladesh on 23-25 October and lastly, Cyclone Midhili made landfall between 16-17 November. The country faced another setback when Cyclone Michaung arrived just twenty days later.

City dwellers, residents of coastal areas, tourists and especially farmers suffered a great deal.

The country also recorded six incidents of earthquakes over the magnitude of 5 since January.

This was topped off by a drenching heatwave.

If this year's weather forecast were a movie, earthquakes would stand as the antagonist as experts drew a grim picture of what the future might be like, insinuating that the small tremors just might lead to a catastrophe.

So the story goes and the burning question arises – are we armed to fight the country's next great natural disaster?

Combatting cyclones

The US and European weather forecast models first predicted Cyclone Mocha forming over the Bay of Bengal bewteen 12-13 May. 

"It would hit the Bangladesh coast at a speed of 150-180 km," said weather expert Mostafa Kamal Palash, a PhD researcher on weather and climate at Saskatchewan University in Canada.

The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) directed farmers to harvest 80% of the paddy, mango and other crops to avoid damages.

As the cyclone turned into a very severe cyclonic storm, weather experts warned the country's only coral island, Saint Martin, would become the worst sufferer. 

Nearly 1,500 tourists left St Martin for shelter.

Meanwhile, observing the situation, the secondary school certification (SSC) and equivalent examination slated for 14 May was postponed under five education boards.

Landslides, floods and even electrocution resulting from the storms ended up injuring and killing people.

Electricity production fell drastically resulting in countrywide load shedding.

Various shelters were opened in Cox's Bazar, Saint Martin, Teknaf and adjacent areas.

The government launched National Helpline 333 to provide crucial support and information regarding the cyclone.

To cope with this, Director General of the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) Prof Dr Abul Bashar Mohammad Khurshid Alam instructed to keep the control room operation going 24/7, while keeping in touch with the health department at all times and ensuring uninterrupted mobile communications. 

He also asked to keep the buffer stock of essential medicines ready and to take all necessary steps to respond to any emergency call made by hospitals in coastal areas.

About 2,000 homes were destroyed while over 10,000 houses partially damaged during tropical cyclone Mocha in the Saint Martin's island and Teknaf upazila of Cox's Bazar district, said State Minister for Disaster Management and Relief Dr Enamur Rahman.

Bangladesh sent relief items for Rakhine. The EU released €2.5 million and the US provided $250,000 as emergency assistance for Cyclone Mocha recovery.

All told, Bangladesh had braced for and braved the first cyclone of the year.

Cameos from Cyclone Hamoon, Midhili, Michaung

Followed by Mocha, Cyclone Hamoon was far less intense, as authorities even brought down danger signals in coastal areas.

Though it had turned into a severe cyclonic storm, the impact was not too intense, as predicted by Shah Alam, former director of the BMD.

Cyclones are always unpredictable, though, he had said.

At least three people died in Cox's Bazar by being crushed under walls and trees due to the impacts of cyclonic storm Hamoon as it crossed the coastal districts of Cox's Bazar and Chattogram around Tuesday (24 October).

At least 15,000 houses have been damaged in Cox's Bazar municipality, Cox's Bazar Municipality Mayor Mahabubur Rahman Chowdhury said.

Despite the district administration giving directives not to go to the beach amid a danger signal 6 in Cox's Bazar, many tourists gathered at the beaches.

Then a deep depression formed over the northwest bay intensified into a cyclone Midhili and hit the Bangladesh coast on 16-17 November.

Water vessels were suspended amid continuous rainfall and warning signals were raised. There were widespread power outages in Barishal amid record 221mm rainfall.

Cyclone Midhili claimed 3 lives as it crossed the coast.

In the deep sea, communication was lost with 200 fishermen. Loading, unloading of containers were halted in Chattogram port. Dried fish worth Tk1 crore was damaged due to the rain and 8.29% Aman paddy was damaged in five coastal districts.

According to information from the DAE and insights from farmers and traders within the marketing system, the effects of the rainfall induced by Cyclone Midhili are being felt in the supply of winter vegetables.

The cyclone's impact led to the damage of 3.97 lakh tonnes of crops, with potatoes and vegetables being the most affected in 15 districts across the country.

DAE data further reveals that Cyclone Michaung resulted in the damage of 1.92 lakh tonnes of vegetables and 1.92 tonnes of potatoes.

In the three to four days preceding Cyclone Michaung, the prices of quality brinjals had dropped to Tk40-Tk50 per kg, potatoes to Tk50-Tk60 per kg, beans to Tk40-Tk35 per kg, and small-sized cauliflower to Tk25 per piece.

Main event: Earthquakes

With the latest earthquake on 2 December, a 5.5 magnitude tremor which shook Dhaka and nearby areas, Bangladesh recorded six incidents of earthquakes over magnitude 5 since January this year.

According to the USGS, the epicentre of the earthquake was located 8km east-northeast of Lakshmipur's Ramganj upazila.

Earlier on 2 October, the country experienced a 5.4 magnitude earthquake originating from Sherpur at around 6:45pm.

This followed the one on 11 September, when Sylhet was struck by another earthquake measuring 5 in magnitude. 

Another seismic event of 5.3 magnitude had shaken Sylhet on 14 August.

The country felt the impact of a 5.0 magnitude earthquake originating from Golapganj in Sylhet, affecting Dhaka and other districts on 16 June.

The first seismic activity recorded this year was on 23 January with a 5.1 magnitude earthquake originating in Sylhet.

Earlier in 2022, Bangladesh encountered three earthquakes surpassing a magnitude of 5 on the Richter scale.

According to earthquakelist.org, the strongest recent earthquake of the past 10 years near Bangladesh occurred on 4 January 2016 5:05am with a magnitude of 6.7 and struck 180 kilometres (112 mi) east of Sylhet, at a depth of 55 km.

These small tremors were a wake-up call for impending mega quakes in the country.

The recent spate of small-scale earthquakes could be a precursor to a powerful 8.2-9 magnitude earthquake that could cause widespread destruction, experts warned.

They say mega cities such as Dhaka and Chattogram could become significant disaster zones in the event of powerful earthquakes, given their high population density and unplanned development.

To mitigate potential damages, they recommend that the government take preemptive actions, including raising awareness and enforcing stringent building codes.

Around 200 garment workers in Chauddagram, Cumilla, sustained injuries this month as they hurriedly exited a factory in panic during the earthquake. Additionally, a student from Dhaka University's Masterda Surja Sen Hall was injured while jumping from his first-floor room window.

Besides, cracks appeared in three halls at the Cumilla University, and the plaster of a hall at Dhaka University collapsed due to the tremor.

Many Dhaka residents came out on the streets in fear during the tremor. People took to social media to report the jolt in parts of Bangladesh.

The region of Bangladesh experiencing recent earthquakes, stretching from Sylhet to Chattogram to Cox's Bazar and surrounding areas, is known as a "subduction zone." 

This region has accumulated significant strain energy due to the absence of major earthquakes for around a thousand of years, said Dhaka University's geology department chairman Dr Syed Humayun Akhter.

"Our research indicates that the accumulated energy in this region could trigger an earthquake of magnitude 8.2 to 9, which could occur at any time, ranging from today to 50 years from now. This earthquake could happen either as a single, massive event or as a series of tremors," he said.

Dr Syed Humayun Akhter said if a magnitude 8 earthquake occurs in any part of this subduction zone, the potential for greater damage in Dhaka compared to the epicentre vicinity is significant. This heightened risk in Dhaka is attributed to its dense population, poor urban planning, and the government's inadequate preparedness.

The consequences could worsen by unregulated urbanisation in both Dhaka and Chattogram, leading to the construction of structurally weak buildings that could collapse during an earthquake, he said.

Additionally, the presence of design flaws in some structures increases the likelihood of collapse. Urgent measures should be taken to prepare for and mitigate the potential impact of a major earthquake in these areas, Dr Akhter said.

He emphasised the need for prioritising planned urbanisation to avert significant disasters. The primary objective should be to undertake initiatives aimed at raising awareness, as this represents the most practical and feasible solution.

He highlighted the utmost importance of prioritising building code compliance in the construction of new buildings.

Heat wave appeared in a supporting role

According to the Disaster Forum, heat stroke claimed the lives of at least 20 individuals across the country since April.

Dengue, diarrhoea and viral fever patients increased during the summer.

July is usually known to be the hottest month of the year, but last year it was globally the hottest of them all. It broke all previous records of temperature set in 2019.

Cultivation hampered by severe heat and lack of rain gave rise to concerns about the yield of Aman during the second largest rice production season this year.

Mercury in Dhaka hit a 58-year high. Chuadanga recorded the season's highest temperature at 42.2 degrees Celsius. Jashore's Chougachha reported a spike in diarrhoea cases, which were mostly children.

Several parts of the country experienced intense loadshedding amid record temperature, hurting daily domestic users, industrial output and irrigation work despite a record power generation by the public and private power producers.

The village areas had electricity for only 8-10 hours per day, with loadshedding the rest of the day.

Along with rural areas, people in Dhaka, Chattogram, and other metropolitan cities had been suffering from loadshedding in phases, despite record power generation in the national grid.

Load-shedding had been interrupting irrigation in the paddy fields which affected the paddy production in Boro season.

Industrial production in Chattogram was interrupted largely due to frequent load-shedding while factory owners were trying to keep production running with generators, which they said increased the production cost and made them miss production targets.

People had to grapple with blistering temperatures and record-breaking temperatures hit the commoners hard, especially the working class people.

As the heatwave continued taking its toll on city dwellers, especially children and elderly people became the most vulnerable. 

On 15 April, Dhaka witnessed a temperature at record 40.4 degrees Celsius, the highest since 1965. The next day, the mercury soared to even higher, at record 40.5 degrees Celsius, in the capital.

Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) data showed that Chuadanga registered this season's highest temperature at 42.2 degrees Celsius on 15 April.

Medical experts suggested taking some precautions to avoid heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Those who are outside or working in this temperature are at a higher risk. 

Health officials advised people to avoid going outdoors during the day unless necessary to cope with the severe heatwave sweeping across the country.

Home appliances stores in Dhaka city almost ran out of stocks of air-conditioners as the heatwave drove their summer sales of the room-cooling device much higher than expectations.

As temperature hits record high with scorching heat forecasted to continue, shoppers were seen rushing to showrooms for smaller family size AC units, but few of them could make purchases.

Sales executives of various brands said there were not even enough technicians to install ACs. 

Even factories did not have enough stocks of smaller ACs.

Dhaka got drier as the water crisis reared its head amid heatwave.

Several areas, including Shekertek, Badda, Banasree, Rayerbazar, Shanir Akhra, Dania, Jatrabari, Rampura, Mirpur, and other areas of the capital were feeling more parched than usual amid a water shortage.

During the month of Ramadan, this proved tricky as water is also needed by households after iftar, according to locals.

AKM Shahid Uddin, director (Technical), Dhaka WASA told The Business Standard that due to the intense heat, the demand for water in the capital had increased.

"As far as I know, there is a water shortage in the Shekertek area. We wanted to install deep tubewells there but did not get the space," he said.

He said their pumps are not able to meet the demand as the number of people in the capital is increasing every year.

And hence it went on till the weather began to cool. 

In almost every climate situation, Bangladesh managed to observe some extremes. 

And these extremes may be even more in 2024. While we have learned to fight cyclones, it seems the country is found lacking in other fronts. 

Much more is bubbling beneath the surface. Perhaps it's time to recognise, that is better to be safe than sorry.