Airspace violation and shelling: Reckless mistakes or acts of provocation?
The Myanmar ambassador reportedly said that the shelling and the airspace violations were unintentional, and that it was not a provocation. Many in Bangladesh are not so convinced
The infighting in Myanmar has got so intense that it is now spilling over to Bangladesh.
In the last three weeks, the Arakan Army (AA) have been fighting with Myanmar's junta across the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. Bullets and several shells fired from inside the Myanmar border landed on Bangladesh territory. Several military aircraft also violated Bangladesh airspace multiple times.
Over the last two weeks, Dhaka summoned the Myanmar ambassador in Dhaka, U Aung Kyaw Moe, three times over their army's mortar shells landing on Bangladesh soil. The Bangladesh Embassy in Yangon also raised the issue with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Myanmar.
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The ambassador reportedly said that the shelling and the airspace violations were unintentional, and that it was not a provocation.
Most of the experts TBS spoke to begged to differ. They said it was an act of provocation intended to further delay Rohingya repatriation.
In either case, Bangladesh is facing a fast evolving reality.
According to reports, since the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, Arakan Army's (AA) political wing, the United League of Arakan, has significantly expanded its own administrative and judicial services across Rakhine State. The story published in The Diplomat says the group is also attempting to involve the state's entire population, including the Rohingya Muslims, in the governance of what it hopes will become an autonomous Rakhine State.
"Bangladesh has shown great patience in dealing with Myanmar ever since the refugee influx started. Despite enormous pressures, the Bangladeshi state and the government has always maintained the diplomatic channel, and has never allowed the situation to escalate. But we have hardly seen any reciprocity from the Myanmar side," Shafqat Munir, head of Bangladesh Centre for Terrorism Research (BCTR) at Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, told The Business Standard to set the context.
Major developments are taking place in Myanmar as a whole and in Rakhine region in particular. We, therefore, have to recalibrate and re-strategise on how we're going to approach Myanmar in the coming years. We have to take note of the new movements, power blocks and new forces which are emerging in Myanmar. A complete reevaluation of our Myanmar strategy is a need of the hour
"Major developments are taking place in Myanmar as a whole and in Rakhine region in particular. We, therefore, have to recalibrate and re-strategise on how we're going to approach Myanmar in the coming years. We have to take note of the new movements, power blocks and new forces which are emerging in Myanmar. A complete reevaluation of our Myanmar strategy is a need of the hour," Shafqat added.
Shafqat says the situation in which shelling and airspace violations are taking place is extremely dangerous and so far Bangladesh has taken the right approach of trying to resolve the matter diplomatically. But he emphasised that we must treat this as a reminder to look at our level of deterrence and overall preparedness to answer any provocations by the Myanmar side.
"I would like to state quite unequivocally that strengthening our military deterrence capability vis-à-vis Myanmar should be a top priority for Bangladesh right now," the security analyst said.
Despite Myanmar ambassador's assurance that the border incidents are mere accidents, Shahab Enam Khan, a professor of International Relations at the Jahangirnagar University also thinks this is a premeditated act of provocation.
"This also shows that the infighting within the Rakhine state has reached an optimal level. This is also premeditated to stop the repatriation process in the future by creating fear among the Rohingyas," the professor told TBS.
Shahab Enam Khan also agrees that the response from the government is adequate, and opines that any military escalation will tarnish the possibility of repatriation.
This also shows that the infighting within the Rakhine state has reached an optimal level. This is also premeditated to stop the repatriation process in the future by creating fear among the Rohingyas. The response from the government was adequate, and any military escalation will tarnish the possibility of repatriation. And that's exactly what Myanmar wants
"And that's exactly what Myanmar wants," the professor said.
Five years into the latest Rohingya influx, there has been little to no progress in the repatriation process. The international relations expert says bypassing Tatmadaw in the question of repatriation is not feasible right now.
"The Arakan Army and National Unity Government (NUG) has to come up with a clear articulated response regarding the Rohingya issue. Otherwise these entities will essentially remain as a threat to the national security of Bangladesh," Shabab said.
He also said that Myanmar is a military state backed by a military-industrial complex, and a military escalation will create unfavourable geo-political repercussions for Bangladesh.
M Humayun Kabir, a former ambassador and the president of Bangladesh Enterprise Institution (BEI), on the other hand, believes that the recent incidents of the border violations were unintentional.
"There is a civil war going on in Myanmar, and it is just spilling over. There is no reason why Myanmar should try to unnecessarily get into trouble with Bangladesh," he told TBS.
Bangladesh's response in this regard, I think, is appropriate. It has lodged strong protests, summoning Myanmar's ambassador in Dhaka. The government has also alerted our border guards and other law enforcement and security agencies. So Myanmar has got the message that we are serious about it and will not allow any such violations in the future
"Bangladesh's response in this regard, I think, is appropriate. It has lodged strong protests, summoning Myanmar's ambassador in Dhaka. The government has also alerted our border guards and other law enforcement and security agencies. So Myanmar has got the message that we are serious about it and will not allow any such violations in the future," the former ambassador said.
Humayun Kabir also noted that the ongoing infighting is Myanmar's internal matter. He opined that entangling in this conflict will create unnecessary complications which Tatmadaw will use as an excuse to further delay the Rohingya repatriation.
