COP29: Where is it heading? What Bangladesh & LDCs stand to gain
Developed nations continue to display a disturbing level of apathy, viewing vital climate finance as mere investments, rather than the lifeline that developing countries urgently need. As COP29 reaches its halfway mark, TBS spoke to climate change experts currently in Baku, Azerbaijan
It was late in August. Shefali Begum felt miserable sitting in the crowded shelter. It was not because there was no privacy or the room smelled, but because the flash flood had claimed all her property, including her house.
"We drowned [went underwater] so fast that saving our lives became the priority. We couldn't save anything," Shefali told The Business Standard. She wasn't alone in loss and suffering.
If the magnitude and speed of the flood were not shocking enough, it was also the first time for most people in southeastern Bangladesh that they encountered such a flood. The erratic rainfall caught them off guard and startled them to the core.
This is just one of the many impacts of climate change gripping Bangladesh over the last several years. Increased salinity in coastal areas and sea level rise, erratic rainfalls and flash floods, increased frequency of droughts, cyclones and storm surges… the list goes on.
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The August flood alone claimed over 70 lives and caused a massive loss of properties. Just like climate change is felt through loss and tragedies, it is also palpably felt in prolonged heat or delayed winter.
It has been a week since the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) began in Baku, Azerbaijan, with a strong focus on climate finance as countries like Bangladesh continue to suffer from the impacts of climate change.
Global efforts for adaptation and mitigation need to be scaled up as climate-vulnerable countries face increasing hazards. With the world grappling to stay within the 1.5°C warming threshold, the need for enhanced financial support is more pressing than ever.
This includes funding for technology transfer, compensation for loss and damage, capacity building and actions required to meet the global climate goals outlined in the Paris Agreement.
It was in 2009 when the developed countries pledged that they would collectively mobilise $100 bn per year to support climate action in developing countries. That target was met in 2022, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The COP29 is especially significant because that older target should be replaced by a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). However, the experts and negotiators involved in the COP29 said that halfway into the negotiations, the parties seem far from reaching a reasonable negotiation as it enters a ministerial-level conversation this week.
"Even developed nations now acknowledge that the financial demand has far outpaced the original figure [in 2009 developed countries pledged collectively $100 bn per year to support climate action in developing countries. The target was met in 2022], necessitating a reassessment of the target to align with current economic and climate realities."
What do the LDCs and the world need?
Juel Mahmud, Programme Coordinator at the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), told The Business Standard from Baku that the target this year is $1.3 trillion.
It is a cumulative figure reflecting the combined needs of developing countries, least developed countries and small island nations, and it represents the funding required for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG).
"Over the past week, negotiators deliberated on how the proposed climate finance will be allocated. A larger text of 43 pages was condensed to a 25-page document as of Saturday [16 November]," said Juel, adding, "This text outlines various options for the amount of finance that developed countries might contribute, including figures from $1.3 trillion to $900 billion along with different timeframes such as 2025–31, 2025–30 etc."
However, disagreements persist between developing and developed nations. Developing countries advocate for grants, whereas developed nations prefer multi-layered funding, including private sources and multilateral development banks like the World Bank and ADB, combining grants with loans.
"No resolution has been reached yet, but with ministerial discussions scheduled for next week, the outcomes of these negotiations have been submitted to the COP presidency for further deliberation," Juel said.
Sharif Jamil, coordinator of Waterkeepers Bangladesh and currently in Baku, told TBS that the Philippines proposed the climate fund to be $1.3 trillion [in public finance] a year in the COP-29 and Oil Change International estimated it is possible to be $5.3 trillion a year.
"There is no meaningful negotiation so far [that] we can be optimistic about," said Sharif.
The G77 plus China, a group of developing nations, call for $1.3 trillion annually from developed countries, with specific funds for emissions reductions, adaptation and loss and damage. They also demand more grants than loans to avoid increasing debt.
Similarly, AILAC, representing eight Latin American countries, wants a portion of this financing dedicated to the region. The 39-member Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) also asks for at least $39 billion annually.
A Climate Analytics report highlights the need for $8 trillion for renewables and $4 trillion for grid infrastructure by 2030, stressing the urgency of shifting investment from fossil fuels to renewables.
Why is $100 bn no longer enough?
According to Juel, the $100 billion climate finance target, set at the Copenhagen Conference in 2009, is an old story as we approach 2025.
Over the past 15 years, inflation has significantly increased the cost of goods and services, while the severity and frequency of climate impacts have intensified. These combined factors highlight that the $100 billion commitment is no longer sufficient to address the escalating needs of vulnerable countries.
"Even developed nations now acknowledge that the financial demand has far outpaced the original figure, necessitating a reassessment of the target to align with current economic and climate realities," he said.
Sharif Jamil said that it is a question of existence for many communities in the world.
"Immediate attention to funding is required for the Global South to phase out fossil fuels, build resilience against climate risks and ensure a just and equitable transition to 100% renewable energy, including paying for the costs of loss and damage," he added.
What's ahead for Bangladesh?
The negotiations or decisions of COPs are discussed or taken in groups. Bangladesh is in the group of LDCs. Country-specific decisions don't come here.
However, Bangladesh as a climate-vulnerable country (since this year's COP is heavily focused on climate finance) will focus on how much finance the developed countries promise, how they mobilise it, and in which channel.
"Bangladesh wants meaningful commitment from the rich nations for adequate climate finance as grants instead of loans — which can spiral the economy into a debt burden," Sharif Jamil said.
"As a least developed and vulnerable country," Juel said, "whatever funding comes, Bangladesh will be on the priority list."
Signs, not good
President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan said in his opening remarks at COP29 that oil and gas riches are "a gift of the god." This year marks the third consecutive year that the UN climate change conference is being held in a country dependent on fossil fuel money.
An open letter was recently issued addressing the UNFCCC Secretariat and UN Secretary-General António Guterres asking for significant reforms to the COP framework to address the urgent climate crisis.
The letter which was signed by Ban Ki-moon, former UN Secretary-General, Christiana Figueres, Former Executive Secretary of UNFCCC, Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Executive Chair, Earth4All and others highlighted the inadequacy of the current structure in achieving the required reductions in global emissions.
Among their reform proposals are stricter COP presidency selection criteria, a shift from negotiations to implementation-focused meetings, and enhanced mechanisms for accountability and climate financing.
Climate Activist Harjeet Singh, Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, has been monitoring the developments at COP29. In a comment sent to The Business Standard, he said it was "deeply disturbing" to witness the climate finance negotiations come to a standstill.
He said that the developed nations continue to display a disturbing level of apathy, viewing vital climate finance as mere investments rather than the lifeline that developing countries urgently need.
"Their reluctance to commit to the scale of the new climate finance goal and ensure it is provided in the form of grants rather than loans and investments not only undermines the success of this conference but also casts a shadow over the integrity of these wealthy nations," he wrote, adding, "Their chronic failures underscore a preference for promoting their economic interests at the expense of providing real support to those enduring the most severe effects of climate change."
He continued, "As developing nations strive to implement critical climate actions, they are unfairly coerced into committing to the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy without the necessary financial and technological support, even as developed countries ramp up their own fossil fuel extraction. This situation is not merely unfair but starkly unjust, compelling vulnerable nations to confront monumental climate challenges alone, while their populations remain without basic energy access."
Harjeet concluded, "It's time for developed countries to step up, fulfill their obligations and make a genuine commitment to meeting the climate action needs of developing nations. We cannot afford to let this COP fail—there's far too much at stake."
