Gaza ceasefire: A goodbye, or see you again?

After 15 challenging months of intense conflict in Gaza, Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement for a ceasefire that is scheduled to begin on 19 January 2025. The agreement, brokered through Qatari mediation, provides a vital respite from one of the most brutal chapters in the region's history. 

The plan encompasses the release of hostages, the establishment of humanitarian corridors, and a gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops. Although the agreement offers a glimmer of hope for short-term relief, the underlying issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict loom large, raising questions about how lasting it will be.

This ceasefire marks yet another effort to broker peace in a region where conflict has long been rooted. Past agreements — made under different international frameworks — act as both examples and cautionary tales of the challenges in securing enduring peace.

A temporary respite?

The ceasefire outlines several measures aimed at de-escalating violence and addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. According to reports from AP News, Hamas will release 33 hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. 

Additionally, aid corridors will allow the flow of essential supplies into Gaza, and Israeli forces will begin a phased withdrawal, establishing a buffer zone to curtail arms smuggling.

Although the agreement is a much-needed lifeline for Gaza, where over 46,000 Palestinians have reportedly died during the conflict, skepticism abounds.  

"This agreement is not a solution; it's a pause," said Dr Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. "Without a commitment to address systemic issues like occupation, displacement, and the blockade of Gaza, such truces are doomed to fail," he told Al Jazeera.

Lessons from past peace agreements

To understand the challenges facing this ceasefire, it is essential to examine the history of peace efforts in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 

Several landmark agreements have aimed to bridge the divide, each leaving a legacy of lessons and unfulfilled promises.

Camp David Accords (1978)

The Camp David Accords, signed on 17 September 1978, were brokered by the US President Jimmy Carter between Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat. 

This groundbreaking agreement resulted in the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, marking the first recognition of Israel by an Arab state and a withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Sinai Peninsula. While the accords did not directly address the Palestinian issue, they included a framework for autonomy in the West Bank and Gaza.

"Camp David showed that peace is possible when leaders take bold political risks," said Ambassador Dennis Ross, a veteran Middle East peace negotiator, in an interview with The New York Times. However, critics argue that the failure to implement Palestinian autonomy laid the groundwork for future discontent.

Oslo accords (1993 and 1995)

The Oslo Accords were a series of agreements negotiated secretly in Norway and signed in Washington, DC, in 1993, followed by a subsequent agreement in 1995. Brokered by Norway and mediated by US President Bill Clinton, the accords established mutual recognition between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), leading to the creation of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and limited self-rule in parts of the West Bank and Gaza.

Despite initial optimism, Oslo's promise of a two-state solution within five years remains unfulfilled. Settlement expansions, political fragmentation, and mutual distrust derailed progress. "Oslo's failure was not just about broken promises — it was about ignoring the realities on the ground," said Diana Buttu, a former legal advisor to the PLO, speaking to The Guardian. "Palestinians gained autonomy in name but not in practice."

The roadmap for peace (2003)

In 2003, the United States led the Roadmap for Peace, which received support from the United Nations, European Union, and Russia. It outlined a three-phase plan leading to a two-state solution. The initiative called for an end to violence, Palestinian political reform, and a freeze on Israeli settlement activity.

However, the roadmap failed to gain traction. "Neither side had the trust or the political will to implement the roadmap," said Aaron David Miller, a former US negotiator, in an interview with CNN. "It became just another unrealised vision in a long line of stalled efforts."

The Abraham Accords (2020)

The Abraham Accords, brokered by the Trump administration, normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE and Bahrain. While hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough, the accords largely bypassed the Palestinian issue. 

"The Abraham Accords shifted regional dynamics, but they sidelined the core conflict," said Tamara Cofman Wittes, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, in an interview with BBC News. "Palestinians saw it as a betrayal by the Arab world."

The humanitarian crisis and scepticism

The current ceasefire offers some hope for addressing the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. The enclave's infrastructure lies in ruins, with hospitals, schools, and homes destroyed. Access to clean water and electricity is severely limited, creating conditions described by the UN as "catastrophic."

Mariola Urrea, a professor of international law, captured the grim reality, stating, "This truce appears to be born out of necessity rather than goodwill. The scale of destruction and loss of life has left few options," she told El País.

Despite these measures, experts warn that the ceasefire's temporary nature could lead to renewed hostilities. "Ceasefires like this one are short-term fixes," said Ghassan Khatib, a former Palestinian minister, in an interview with Reuters. "Without addressing core issues like the blockade and Israeli settlements, the situation will remain volatile."

Governance and political fragmentation

A critical issue is the future governance of Gaza. Israel's demand for the dismantling of Hamas raises questions about who will govern the territory. The Palestinian Authority, which controls parts of the West Bank, lacks authority in Gaza, creating a fractured political landscape.

"This is a governance crisis as much as it is a humanitarian one," said Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, in an interview with Foreign Policy. "Without a unified Palestinian leadership, any long-term agreement is unlikely to succeed."

A new hope?

The Israel-Hamas ceasefire offers a brief respite in a region that has known little peace. However, history warns against undue optimism. Past agreements like Camp David and Oslo demonstrate that achieving peace requires bold leadership, mutual trust, and a willingness to address the deep-seated issues that fuel conflict.

As the ceasefire takes effect, the international community faces a critical question: Will this agreement be the beginning of a meaningful peace process, or merely a pause before the next cycle of violence? 

Afterall, when it comes to Palestine and bloodshed, it is never goodbye, always see you again.