Raisi crashes, will Iran burn?
Raisi's opponents will hail the exit of a hardliner tight with the regime, hoping the end of his rule hastens the end of this regime. But those who backed the late Iranian president still stand strong
17 August 1988.
Bahawalpur, Pakistan.
A plume of black smoke stained the azure sky, a stark counterpoint to the gleaming fuselage of a shattered C-130 Hercules, which moments ago had 29 people, including Pakistan's then President General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq and US Ambassador Arnold Raphel, in its belly.
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The aircraft with the call sign Pak-One, destined for Islamabad, plunged to earth shortly after take-off, leaving no survivors.
Almost instantly, conspiracy theories started circulating. Was it simply a mechanical failure? Was it a disgruntled faction within the military — a possibility that can never be ruled out when it comes to Pakistan? Was it the Soviets who were unhappy with Zia's support for Afghan Mujahideen?
Nearly 36 years after that event, yesterday, the world woke up to similar news. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was found dead Monday, hours after their helicopter crashed in a foggy, mountainous region of the country's northwest, state media reported. Details of the crash have been hard to come by.
The crash coincides with ongoing instability in the Middle East, which includes the war between Israel and Hamas, where Raisi, under the authority of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, authorised a major drone and missile strike on Israel last month.
Moreover, under Raisi, Iran had enriched uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels, raising tensions with the US and its allies.
Iran has also been supplying armed drones capable of carrying bombs to Russia for their war in Ukraine, as well as to militant groups in other parts of the region.
Raisi's rise to the top
Ebrahim Raisi was born in Mashhad, in northeastern Iran. He trained at the seminary in Qom, studying under prominent scholars, including Khamenei.
He built up experience as a prosecutor in multiple jurisdictions before coming to Tehran in 1985. It was in the capital city that he became part of a committee, which Amnesty dubbed the "death commission", that forcibly disappeared and executed thousands of political dissidents in the late 1980s. It was this role that earned him the moniker 'Butcher of Tehran'.
The sudden death of a president is normally a consequential event, but, despite being seen as a potential Supreme Leader, he lacked political support and any clear political vision. But the political operators who got him elected will adjust and advance without him.
He became attorney general in 2014 for two years, when he was appointed by Khamenei to lead the Astan Quds Razavi. The colossal bonyad, or charitable trust, has billions of dollars in assets and is the custodian of the shrine of Imam Reza, the eighth Shia imam.
He first ran for the presidency in 2017 but was defeated. In 2019, he became the Chief Justice. He was sanctioned by the US the same year, which cited his role in human rights violations over many decades.
He was elected to power in 2021 on a record-low turnout in a poll that mostly excluded reformists and veteran politicians. And his rise to the presidency was backed by the highest levels of Iran's religious and military establishment.
The late president was also a longtime member of the Assembly of Experts, the body that is tasked with choosing a replacement for the supreme leader in the event of his death. Raisi was viewed as a protégé of Khamenei, and some analysts had suggested he could replace the 85-year-old leader after Khamenei's death or resignation.
What really happened?
The aircraft carrying the late Iranian president was returning from a trip to the inauguration of a dam on the border with Azerbaijan.
It is being speculated that the foggy weather likely played a significant role. Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said fog and bad weather in the area have already slowed rescuers' responses. However, determining whether it was the sole cause or if other factors contributed remains uncertain.
Helicopter malfunctions, engine failure, or structural problems could be investigated, but definitive proof might be elusive. Human error, misjudgment, or poor decision-making could have led to the crash too and investigating pilot training and experience is crucial.
US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer stated that there is "no evidence of foul play" in the crash, attributing it to the foggy weather in northwest Iran.
But so far, it seems that pinpointing the exact reason behind the crash might be difficult. Given the timing and circumstances of the crash though, conspiracy theories are springing up just as they did when Zia-ul-Haque's plane took the plunge.
The geopolitical implications
The crash comes at a very critical time as far as the Middle East is concerned. Israel has been at war in Gaza for seven months, following an attack by Hamas. Meanwhile Tehran has been repeatedly accused of assisting Hezbollah in opening the Lebanon front against Tel Aviv.
But a major escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran occurred last month when Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel, the majority of which were intercepted by its Iron Dome aerial defence system. Iran claimed the attack was in retaliation for the bombing of its embassy in Syria by suspected Israeli warplanes. Tel Aviv responded by conducting a limited attack on a missile defence system in Iran's Isfahan province, which also houses a uranium enrichment facility.
The US, a strong ally of Israel, has yet to officially respond to Raisi's death, but earlier reports indicated that President Joe Biden had been briefed on the situation.
The past few years have seen critical developments in US-Iran relations due to Tehran's nuclear push. In 2018, then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an agreement on Iran's nuclear programme, and reinstated harsh sanctions against Tehran. This prompted Iran to violate the agreement's nuclear limitations.
Raisi took a tough negotiating stance after taking over in 2021, seeing a chance to win broad relief from US sanctions in exchange for modest curbs on its increasingly advanced technology, according to Reuters.
Conflict in the Middle East has further heightened tensions.
Despite its close ties with Israel, the US has recently attempted to de-escalate the situation, citing the rising human cost of the Gaza war. Biden even threatened to cut off arms supplies to Israel if it invaded the Gaza city of Rafah, eliciting a sharp response from Israel.
Trouble brewing at home
Internally, the Iranian regime faces some of its most significant challenges since the 1979 revolution. Iran's clerical rulers, who have maintained a firm grip on power for over four decades, are contending with widespread discontent.
Economic hardships exacerbated by international sanctions, public protests, and calls for political reform are putting immense pressure on the leadership. Whoever takes Raisi's mantle inherits a daunting agenda and few levers of power. The Supreme Leader holds the ultimate decision-making authority in the Islamic Republic.
Foreign policy, particularly in the region, is the domain of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). Media reports suggest that it was not the president calling the shots months ago when Iran confronted unprecedented tensions with its arch-enemy Israel over the devastating Israel-Gaza war.
It triggered a dangerous tit-for-tat exchange and raised concerns about the possibility of an even riskier escalation spiral.
However, as he presided over day-to-day operations, Iranians struggled to deal with the deepening financial hardship caused by crippling international sanctions, as well as mismanagement and corruption. Inflation reached more than 40%, and the rial's value plummeted.
On his watch, the Islamic Republic was also shaken by an unprecedented wave of protests sparked by the death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini.
Raisi tightened Iran's "hijab and chastity law" weeks before the unrest, requiring women to behave and dress modestly, including wearing a headscarf. Hundreds were killed in the crackdown, and thousands more detained, according to human rights groups.
Raisi's opponents will hail the exit of a hardliner tight with the regime. They will hope the end of his rule hastens the end of this regime, just like Zia-ul-Haq's death brought democracy back to Pakistan.
"The sudden death of a president is normally a consequential event, but, despite being seen as a potential Supreme Leader, he lacked political support and any clear political vision. But the political operators who got him elected will adjust and advance without him," Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, CEO of the Bourse and Bazaar think tank, told the BBC.
The nuclear question?
Qasem Soleimani, a powerful Iranian major general, was killed in a US drone strike near Baghdad International Airport on 3 January 2020. He was the commander of the Quds Force, an elite unit of the IRGC. In response, Iran announced that it would suspend all its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal.
Raisi, after assuming power, took a tough stance in now-moribund negotiations with six major powers to revive a 2015 nuclear deal, seeing a chance to win broad relief from US sanctions in return for only modest curbs on Iran's increasingly advanced nuclear programme.
The Raisi administration resisted international inspections, in part because of Israel's alleged sabotage campaign against Iran's nuclear programme, even though Raisi claimed he wanted to rejoin the deal. What happens to the controversial nuclear programme remains to be seen now.
Raisi's eventful stay in power, which saw a harsh crackdown on mass protests, stricter enforcement of women's dress codes, increased uranium enrichment following the US withdrawal from a landmark nuclear deal, and heightened military tensions with Israel and the West, has now come to an abrupt end — eerily similar to the events this article started off with.
High-ranking officials, tense times, mysterious crashes tend to raise questions and fuel wild speculation. Gen Ziaul Haq's demise led to significant changes in Pakistan's political and military landscape. Will President Ebrahim Raisi's death bring about similar changes for Iran?
