Recognition of the State of Palestine: Is people power finally nudging Europe in the right direction?

Even in the most democratic settings, governments are often seen to ignore public opinion on matters of war and peace.

Take for example the Vietnam War. During the prolonged war, the US decided to throw bodies in the jungles of Vietnam, and the military conscripted approximately 1.9 million youths to fight the war. At least 16,000 people were even imprisoned for evading the draft.

During the height of the war in the late 1960s and early 1970s, San Francisco, New York, Oakland and Berkeley became demonstration hubs, led by university students.

Despite the protests, the war lasted until 1975, ending a 20-year war.

Or maybe it would have lasted far longer had there not been any protest.

The Western support for the Israeli occupation of Palestine is a similar case. 

The West has been lending unequivocal support – both economic, military and political – to the Jewish state's massacres, evictions and repressions of the Palestinian people for more than seven decades.

Just like the protests against the Vietnam War, many people in the West have always supported the cause of the Palestinian people and called for recognition of the Palestinian state.

This time too, people in the US and Europe have organised massive protests as Israel kept levelling Gaza to the ground, killing tens of thousands of innocent civilians (35,000 and counting) since the Israel-Hamas war broke out on 7 October last year.

Nonetheless, 'world leaders' continued supporting Israel's actions which they saw as the latter's 'right to self-defence.'

Lately, however, a series of astounding, new things started happening.

For the first time, thanks to South Africa's unprecedented move, Israel is facing genocide charges at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). And, for the first time, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is seeking an arrest warrant against an Israeli Prime Minister for committing war crimes and crimes against humanity.

And now, Spain, Ireland and Norway have officially announced that they are going to recognise a Palestinian state next week.

"Today, we state clearly our unambiguous support for the equal right to security, dignity, and self-determination for the Palestinian and Israeli peoples," Irish Foreign Minister Micheál Martin said, BBC reports.

Slovenia and Malta also said recently that they were considering a formal recognition.

The Irish PM, Simon Harris, said, "We asked the world to recognise us, now we're recognising Palestine."

This clarifies Ireland's motivations behind the announcement.

But Norway's case has been even more interesting, who had always chosen to refrain from taking sides.

In 1993, Norway hosted the negotiations between Israel and Palestinian leaders along with other world leaders leading up to the signing of the Oslo Accords, a set of agreements between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) that established a peace process for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through a mutually negotiated two-state solution. 

Some see Norway's announcement as a move away from its previous neutral position as a peace broker.

"With this symbolic action which has no real meaning, the government has completely played Norway out of its role as a potential peace broker in this conflict," Sylvi Listhaug, Norwegian politician and leader of the opposition Progress Party, said in reaction.

Others could, of course, argue that Norway just reaffirmed its 30-year-old position to work for a two-state solution.

Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said that his government still wants "close contact" with Israel, and remains "a friend" of the Middle Eastern nation.

Even more intriguing is Germany's pledge to abide by a possible ICC arrest warrant against Netanyahu. Germany had been another staunch supporter of Israel.

Apparently, German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit was asked whether ICC arrest warrants would be implemented. His answer: "Of course. Yes, we abide by the law." Israel's Ambassador to Berlin, Ron Prosor, wrote this on X, formerly Twitter.

Israel reacted angrily, and all these moves and announcements of recognition met with usual threats from Israel of "consequences."

Israel recalls its ambassadors to all three countries. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced the move as a "reward for terrorism" and said it would not bring peace.

This came despite the governments of the three countries repeatedly clarifying that the move was not against Israel, and definitely not in support of Hamas.

The announcements by the three countries did not sit well with the biggest ally of Israel in the west, The US, despite ongoing protests against Israeli attacks in Gaza. Reacting to the news, a White House spokesperson said US President Joe Biden was a "strong supporter" of the two-state solution, and believed "a Palestinian state should be realised through direct negotiations, not through unilateral recognition".

Most members of the UN already recognise the state of Palestine. Earlier this month, 143 of the 193 members voted in favour of Palestine joining the UN.

Before the latest announcements from the three countries, only nine European countries supported Palestinian statehood, but they were a part of the then-Soviet bloc when they recognised Palestine.

The announcements of recognition can be seen as a support to the two-state solution to the protracted conflict.

The quest for establishing a Palestinian state 

Since the conflict over Mandatory Palestine (a geopolitical entity that existed between 1920 and 1948 in the region of Palestine under the terms of the League of Nations Mandate for Palestine) escalated with the formation of Israel in 1948, the quest for an independent Palestine has been there.

The multiple Arab-Israel wars failed to settle the issue by taking back Palestinian land.

In November 1988, under the leadership of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), the establishment of the "State of Palestine" was declared. 

It was quickly recognised by many states, including Egypt and Jordan. 

In 1993, in the aforementioned Oslo Accords, Israel acknowledged the PLO negotiating team as "representing the Palestinian people" in exchange for the PLO recognising Israel's right to exist in peace.

According to the Oslo Accords, Israel allowed the PLO to establish interim administrative institutions in certain Palestinian territories. This was the beginning of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA or PA) territorial administration, which exercises some governmental functions.

But as the state of Palestine was not materialised, frustrations returned. Along came violence as Palestinians declared the second Intifada in 2000.

In 2003, the Quartet (US, EU, Russia and the UN) released a 'Road Map' to a two-state solution. An unofficial Geneva Peace Accord was promulgated by prominent Israelis and Palestinians in 2003.

In 2009, a programme to build State institutions in the Palestinian Authority received wide international support. But a new round of negotiations in 2010 broke down following the expiration of the Israeli settlement moratorium. 

In 2011, President Mahmoud Abbas submitted the application of Palestine for membership in the UN. UNESCO admitted Palestine as a member. 

In the following year, Palestine was granted non-member observer State status in the UN. 

In 2017, the US Administration announced recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and subsequently, the US and certain other embassies were moved to Jerusalem.

With this provocative move from Israel's strongest allies, there hasn't been any progress in the global attempt to establish a Palestinian state.

Except, of course, the latest announcements from the three European states.

The scale of Israeli atrocities in Gaza since October 2023 surely has played a role in the move but the mass protests across the West must be given some due credit.

Ashraful Haque