What is the Dissanayake magic? A seismic shift in Sri Lanka's politics

Sri Lanka's political landscape is undergoing a dramatic shift as Marxist-leaning leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake surged into an early lead on Sunday in his bid to become the next president of the crisis-hit nation. 

With Sri Lanka seeking leadership to stabilise its fragile economic recovery, Dissanayake captured around 53% of the first million votes counted. Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa trailed with 22%, while incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe fell to third place.

The results have sparked several questions: What is exactly Dissanayake's magic? And why is Ranil, the man credited with saving Sri Lanka, facing such a humiliating defeat? 

Even Rajapaksa's son, whom many thought could help the dynasty crawl back into power, contested the election but finished far behind. Is this the final nail in the coffin for the Rajapaksa dynasty? Could this be the end of their political road? 

The poll body reported a voter turnout of approximately 75% among the 17 million eligible voters in Saturday's election across the Indian Ocean island nation.

The country still reeling from an unprecedented economic crisis that brought it to its knees in 2022, is witnessing what could be the twilight of its political dynasties and the dawn of a new era in its democratic journey.

At the forefront of this political upheaval is Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the 55-year-old leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a Marxist-leaning party. 

Despite the JVP holding just three seats in parliament, Dissanayake has an early lead in the presidential polls, a development that has sent shockwaves through the political establishment.

Why Dissanayake?

Dissanayake presented himself as the candidate of change, pledging to dissolve parliament within 45 days of taking office in order to secure a fresh mandate for his policies in the upcoming general elections.

His platform, built on promises of stringent anti-corruption measures and pro-poor policies, has struck a chord with a populace weary of economic hardship and political malfeasance. 

In a country where political dynasties have long held sway, Dissanayake represents a fresh face, unburdened by the baggage of past administrations.

The India or China division also comes into play. Out of the four candidates, Dissanayake and Premadasa are the frontrunners. New Delhi is reportedly backing Sajith Premadasa of the SJB, a party that is more pro-India and committed to implementing the 13th Amendment. 

Meanwhile, China is expected to support Anura Kumara Dissanayake due to his centre-left political stance, aligning with Beijing's historical preference for backing left-leaning governments in Sri Lanka. 

Throughout post-independence history, China has consistently provided more aid, loans, and political support when Sri Lanka has been led by centre-left parties or coalitions. 

Dissanayake's National People's Power (NPP) is rooted in this tradition, with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) — a key component of the NPP alliance — emerging from the pro-China wing of the Sri Lankan Communist Party in the 1960s. 

Given this background, a Dissanayake presidency would likely reignite stronger ties with China, similar to those seen under previous left-leaning administrations, in contrast to the more cautious approach Beijing has taken toward right-leaning governments like the current UNP-led administration

On the other hand, despite a high-profile visit to India, the NPP maintains its stance against India's influence in Sri Lanka, particularly opposing Adani Group's control over key sectors like ports, energy, and airports. 

Dissanayake recently threatened to cancel an energy deal with Adani, criticising it for undermining Sri Lanka's economy by charging double the market rate for renewable energy. 

While supporting regional energy cooperation, Dissanayake opposes agreements that harm national interests and has vowed to protect Sri Lankan waters from Indian fishermen. 

Therefore, his strong voice in the India question brought him more people to support him. 

Ranil Wickremesinghe's fall 

Meanwhile, the old guard of Sri Lankan politics finds himself on increasingly shaky ground. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the current president who steered the country through the worst of its recent economic crisis, faces the prospect of a humiliating defeat. 

Once hailed as a steady hand in turbulent times, Wickremesinghe now grapples with public perception of his alleged ties to the Rajapaksa dynasty, a family name that has become synonymous with the country's recent troubles.

The Rajapaksa family, once seemingly invincible in Sri Lankan politics, is witnessing a precipitous fall from grace. 

The dynasty that gave Sri Lanka two presidents and several key political figures is now fighting for relevance. Gotabaya Rajapaksa's flight from the country amid widespread protests in 2022 marked a low point for the family. 

His return after a year in exile has done little to resurrect their political fortunes. The poor showing of Namal Rajapaksa, once touted as the family's political heir, in current polls seems to signal the end of an era in Sri Lankan politics. 

"It seems to me that Namal Rajapaksa thinks, not incorrectly, that representing the legacy of his father will enable him to protect his father's vote base and benefit from it," said political scientist Jayadeva Uyangoda to BBC in a recent report. "It is one way to rebuild the shattered electoral bases of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP)."

The seeds of this political transformation were sown during the massive protests of 2022. As Sri Lankans took to the streets in unprecedented numbers, they were not just protesting against economic mismanagement but also expressing a deep-seated desire for systemic change. 

Notably, the Rajapaksa government's response to these protests—refraining from using lethal force, with only nine people killed and several hundred injured—may have inadvertently paved the way for a more robust democratic discourse.

The potential move away from dynastic politics towards a more issue-based political landscape could redefine governance in the country. However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. 

The new political forces will need to balance the imperative of economic recovery with the demand for popular reforms, all while rebuilding trust in political institutions.

In many ways, the current political climate in Sri Lanka is a testament to the resilience of its democratic institutions. Despite economic turmoil and political upheaval, the country is witnessing a peaceful transition of power through the ballot box. 

As the election draws near, all eyes will be on this island nation, watching to see if this moment truly marks the beginning of a new chapter in Sri Lanka's political history.