Why Egypt, Arab countries unwilling to take in Palestinian refugees

The desperate plight of Palestinians in Gaza seeking refuge from the ongoing conflict has brought attention to the reluctance of neighbouring Arab countries, particularly Egypt and Jordan, to provide shelter.

The two countries, which flank Israel on opposite sides and share borders with Gaza and the occupied West Bank, respectively, have replied with a staunch refusal as Gazans try to find refuge from Israel's relentless bombardment in retaliation for Hamas' 7 October attack.

Their refusal is rooted in fear that Israel wants to force a permanent expulsion of Palestinians into their countries and nullify Palestinian demands for statehood. 

Jordan already is host to six million Palestinian refugees, mostly descendants of those displaced during previous Arab-Israeli wars. Meanwhile, Egypt fears a mass exodus risks bringing militants into the Sinai, from where they could cause trouble by launching attacks on Israel.

On Wednesday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi made his toughest remarks, saying the current war was not just aimed at fighting Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, "but also an attempt to push the civilian inhabitants to ... migrate to Egypt." 

He warned this could wreck peace in the region.

Jordan's King Abdullah II gave a similar message a day earlier, saying, "No refugees in Jordan, no refugees in Egypt."

Palestinian history is marked by significant displacement, notably during the 1948 and 1967 wars, leading to a large population of refugees. The Nakba in 1948 saw around 700,000 Palestinians expelled or fleeing from what is now Israel.

In the 1967 Mideast war, when Israel seized the West Bank and Gaza Strip, 300,000 more Palestinians fled, mostly into Jordan.

The refugees and their descendants now number nearly 6 million, most living in camps and communities in the West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. The diaspora has spread further, with many refugees building lives in Gulf Arab countries or the West.

After fighting stopped in the 1948 war, Israel refused to allow refugees to return to their homes. Since then, Israel has rejected Palestinian demands for a return of refugees as part of a peace deal, arguing that it would threaten the country's Jewish majority.

Egypt fears history will repeat itself and a large Palestinian refugee population from Gaza will end up staying for good.

Israel says it intends to destroy Hamas for its bloody rampage in its southern towns. But it has given no indication of what might happen afterwards and who would govern Gaza. That has raised concerns that it will reoccupy the territory for a period, fueling further conflict.

The Israeli military said Palestinians who followed its order to flee northern Gaza to the strip's southern half would be allowed back to their homes after the war ends.

However, Egypt is not reassured.

Arab countries and many Palestinians also suspect Israel might use this opportunity to force permanent demographic changes to wreck Palestinian demands for statehood in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which was also captured by Israel in 1967.

El-Sisi repeated warnings Wednesday that an exodus from Gaza was intended to "eliminate the Palestinian cause … the most important cause of our region." He argued that if a demilitarized Palestinian state had been created long ago in negotiations, there would not be war now.

"All historical precedent points to the fact that when Palestinians are forced to leave Palestinian territory, they are not allowed to return," said HA Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Egypt doesn't want to be complicit in ethnic cleansing in Gaza."

El-Sisi said fighting could last for years if Israel argues it hasn't sufficiently crushed militants. He proposed that Israel house Palestinians in its Negev Desert, which neighbours the Gaza Strip, until it ends its military operations.

"Israel's lack of clarity regarding its intentions in Gaza and the evacuation of the population is in itself problematic," said Riccardo Fabiani, Crisis Group International's North Africa Project Director. "This confusion fuels fears in the neighbourhood."

Arab countries' concerns have heightened due to the increasing influence of hard-right parties under the leadership of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Following the Hamas attack, the discourse has become more unrestrained, with certain right-wing politicians and media figures advocating for military actions to demolish Gaza and force its residents out. One lawmaker even suggested implementing a "new Nakba" in Gaza.

Disclaimer: The content provided was initially sourced from an AP explainer titled 'Why Egypt and other Arab countries are unwilling to take in Palestinian refugees from Gaza' and has undergone minor modifications.