December 2023: In the shadows of election, a PM is deified 

By holding the 7 January national polls, Bangladesh became the first country in the world to elect a new government in 2024, which appeared to be the biggest election year in history as more than 2 billion voters were set to go to the polls in at least 64 countries throughout the year. However, Bangladesh failed to set an example of a good election. Its election went down in the history of the election year with a remarkable dark spot on its face, potentially tainting the beginning of the election year.

In the eyes of global media, it had already become an example of a flawed election. For instance, on 14 December, The Economist in a report titled "Sheikh Hasina's party is set to be re-elected in January: The Bangladeshi leader has hounded her opponents" stated, "the 76-year-old prime minister has assailed Bangladeshi democracy with impunity." A BBC report summarized the situation in its headline: "Bangladesh: The election that has turned into a one-woman show."

Why were global eyes so critical of the Bangladesh election?

Sheikh Hasina's four consecutive 'thumping' wins in national elections went down in the history of Bangladesh as an unprecedented record. Such a feat, which Bangladesh had never seen before, marked a triumph of her political acumen. However, in a democracy, such an achievement is always questionable, as three of the four elections — including the 7 January one — were evidently stage-managed, widely recognized as sham elections.

Already recognized as the world's longest-serving female prime minister, Hasina, the elder daughter of Bangladesh's founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who was brutally murdered along with most of his family members in a military coup in 1975, was poised to be sworn in as premier for another term of five years anytime in the second week of January 2024. Her 'biggest win' was all but certain, as the 7 January election appeared to be nothing more than a formality in the absence of her party's main challenger, the BNP, in the electoral race. Thus, the outcomes seemed inevitable long before the Election Commission's announcement of the polling schedule.

How did it look?

For the three weeks since the campaign formally began on 18 December, the capital, major cities, and small towns in rural Bangladesh wore a festive look due to massive electioneering by both Awami League (AL)-nominated and independent candidates who used posters and banners to seek votes in a one-sided election. They did their part following the instructions of the party chief, Hasina, who wanted to make the election "festive" and "competitive." She aimed to give a "befitting reply" to those who continued to criticize her regime and called for a free and fair election.

From mid-December, Hasina herself toured different parts of the country, addressing her party's election rallies, urging people to visit polling stations and vote for her party. Her strategy seemed to have worked. The election appeared somewhat competitive, thanks to her party's independent candidates, who emerged as challengers to AL candidates in more than 100 constituencies. She allowed her party leaders to run as independent candidates, defying the party charter, which does not permit this.

This tactic was also aimed at increasing voter turnout, which had been one of the major challenges for both the ruling party and the Election Commission. These new tactics differentiated the 7 January election from those in 2014 and 2018.

In December, Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibual Awal and four other election commissioners traveled across the country and held a series of meetings with election officials and the field administration. They delivered a consistent message: make the election "free and fair." They also issued a warning, stating that free and fair elections were essential to avoid further crises.

Around two weeks after the election schedule was announced, on 27 November, CEC Awal stated that the upcoming national election had to be free, fair, and credible to salvage Bangladesh's democracy, safeguard the nation's economy, and secure its future. "It is unfortunate that outside forces are trying to influence our election. If we want to protect our economy and our future, the election must be fair, acceptable, and credible. That is why we want a free, fair, and credible election," he said.

A month later, on 31 December, his colleague, election commissioner Md Anisur Rahman, echoed the same concern, warning that the country might become isolated from the rest of the world without fair elections, potentially leading to stagnation in all sectors, including business and commerce. "Simply conducting an election that is free, fair, and acceptable in our view is not enough. The whole world is watching us. If we fail to conduct a fair and acceptable election, the future will be uncertain," Rahman said at the inauguration of a training program for executive magistrates in the capital.

"Everything in Bangladesh, especially the financial, social, business, and commerce sectors, may come to a halt. Bangladesh might even become isolated from the rest of the world," he added.

Their repeated warnings raised an important question in the public mind: were they apprehending something disastrous after 7 January?

Despite all efforts by the Election Commission and the government to make the election festive and competitive, as envisioned by PM Hasina, an uneasy calm settled over the country. The street agitation launched by the BNP, Jamaat, and other opposition parties calling for Hasina to step down in favor of a non-partisan election-time government seemed to have died down, largely due to the government's ruthless crackdown on its opponents.

Opposition leaders and activists, critics said, were not treated as citizens with fundamental rights guaranteed by the constitution. Rather, they were targeted. Many were detained, jailed, and denied bail, keeping them off the streets until the election was over. Thousands had been hurriedly sentenced to prison in recent months in decades-old political cases.

Sentencing opposition figures in such cases contradicted the Hasina government's earlier stance. Thousands of cases filed against AL leaders and activists by the previous BNP government (2001–2006) in connection with street violence during anti-government protests were withdrawn after Hasina formed the government in 2009. Even individuals accused of murder and rape were acquitted as the AL-led government dismissed those cases as "politically motivated."

The BNP's street agitations since 2011, after the cancellation of the election-time non-partisan caretaker government, had resulted in political cases against its leaders and activists. Now, those figures were paying the price.

The BNP, once active on the streets, had grown silent. Throughout 2023, the party organized regular protests, with high hopes of ousting the incumbent AL-led government and returning to power after 17 years through a free and fair election. The US-led diplomatic push for a fair election also emboldened the opposition. However, their hopes faded as their strategy faced defeat against Hasina's masterstroke.

In addition to using law enforcement agencies and other institutions for partisan purposes, Hasina's government weaponized the judiciary to crush the opposition this time. Reports circulated that the government pressured BNP leaders to join the election. AL senior leader and Agriculture Minister Abdur Razzak, in an interview with a private television channel on 17 December, acknowledged this: "BNP leaders were offered release from prisons to contest the elections, but they did not agree. The government had no alternative but to detain them behind bars to avert unrest in the country."

Media reports in late December indicated that the BNP and its ally Jamaat-e-Islami were planning fresh agitation from 3 to 8 January to prevent the elections, similar to their efforts in 2014. However, their ability to mobilize was limited, given the increased presence of law enforcement and the armed forces to guard the election.

After the election schedule was announced in mid-November, the opposition failed to disrupt the administration with street agitations. Incidents of violence reported by the media mainly involved rival groups within the ruling party.

The diplomatic push by the US and other Western countries for a fair election also seemed to have fizzled out. The US announcement to impose restrictions on individuals undermining the democratic election process and sanctions on businesses violating labor rights was no longer a concern for PM Hasina by the end of the year.

India, China, and Russia extended their support to the Hasina government for the 7 January election. India's role was particularly significant, as it repeatedly stated that it did not wish to interfere in the election, calling it an internal matter of Bangladesh. Public perception held that India disagreed with the US's intervention in Bangladesh's political crisis. This perception also suggested that the US's lack of action on the Bangladesh election might not be appreciated by India, despite being the US's biggest ally in the region to counter China. Thus, the competition between global powers turned Bangladesh into a proxy battleground ahead of the election.

The Chinese ambassador in Dhaka announced that relations with the Hasina government would be further strengthened after the 7 January election.

On 7 December, Russian Ambassador in Dhaka, Alexander Mantytskiy, stated that Russia would stand with Dhaka against any potential US or Western sanctions on Bangladesh.

"We are against any illegal actions here (Bangladesh). We will be against any sanctions or steps which can be taken by America or Western countries here," he told a group of journalists at Jatiya Press Club.

By 8 January 2024, Hasina reached new heights, adding another feather to her cap. The 76-year-old led her party, the Awami League, to victory in four consecutive polls, and five in total, surpassing the records of Indira Gandhi, Margaret Thatcher, Angela Merkel, and Chandrika Kumaratunga—four other globally recognized female leaders.

By holding the 7 January election, Sheikh Hasina proved herself 'unbeaten' and 'unstoppable,' as her party's General Secretary, Obaidul Quader, had declared on 26 September that Hasina could not be stopped by issuing visa policies and sanctions.

"Bangladesh will run in line with the Constitution. It does not abide by any country's sanctions. We could not be defeated in 1971, and Sheikh Hasina cannot be stopped even today by issuing sanctions. We don't care about anyone's sanctions," he said at a rally in the capital.

Hasina, along with senior colleagues in her cabinet and party, consistently claimed that they would not deviate from the Constitution, and the election would be held according to constitutional provisions, allowing Hasina to stay in power during the election.

Amid mounting diplomatic pressure for a free and fair election, Hasina promised multiple times that the election would be transparent. Her party leaders echoed this promise, also stating that no one could stop the election within the constitutional timeframe.

After the 7 January election, Hasina and her party could claim that the Constitution had been upheld in a "free and fair" election. According to a report from Samakal, Western diplomats labeled it as "a special election operation" in their dispatches to their foreign ministries. In her party's election manifesto, Hasina promised to build a "smart and prosperous Bangladesh."

7 January Polls: A numbers game

The 7 January election was seen as a numbers game where PM Hasina had absolute control over the situation, demonstrating her political acumen.

However, the election was neither free nor fair. Hasina and her party were accused of using, and often abusing, state machinery to secure partisan gains and cling to power by claiming "the people's mandate" through the election.

Bangladesh, with its turbulent political history, had already witnessed four sham elections. Another one was in the making, as per the blueprint designed by PM Hasina, which her party claimed was to uphold the Constitution and strengthen the country's democracy.

Despite the boycott by the BNP, Hasina's strategy ensured the participation of 27 parties, more than half of the registered political parties, in the election. Small parties were allegedly lured into participating, with some leaders being promised opportunities to win seats.

While the election appeared "participatory," it was not competitive in the true sense. Around two dozen of the participating parties had little public support, and none could win a single seat without the ruling party's blessing.

Well before the 7 January polling day, Hasina's party was set to secure a resounding victory in more than three-fourths of the parliamentary seats. Only 32 out of 300 seats were left to other parties, mostly small ones, in an effort to make the election appear competitive amid the BNP's boycott.

As former election commissioner Brig Gen (retd) M Sakahwat Hossain noted, the election had essentially become a search for the main opposition in the new parliament, given the structure of the contest, where an opposition is always needed.

While the election was essentially decided long before polling day, challenges remained, as the BNP and other opposition parties, agitating since 2011 for the reinstatement of a non-partisan caretaker government, announced plans to resist the polls through protests.

Back in 2014, Hasina's party had won the election without a contest due to the BNP's boycott, with 153 MPs elected without a single vote being cast. In 2018, when the BNP joined the election, widespread allegations of ballot stuffing on the night before election day ensured another landslide victory for Hasina's party.

Both incidents—uncontested elections in 2014 and alleged ballot stuffing in 2018—triggered widespread outcry and a credibility crisis. This time, Hasina was determined to avoid a recurrence of these incidents. Her party's victory was already assured before election day, but efforts were made to ensure a peaceful polling day and allow voters to exercise their franchise, thereby presenting a "credible election" to silence critics.

In more than 100 constituencies, Hasina allowed independent candidates from her own party to challenge AL-nominated candidates in order to make the election appear competitive.

By December 2023, the situation was firmly under her control. The opposition's agitation failed to gain momentum. Her administration had effectively turned into an election administration under the supervision of the Election Commission. Over the past decade and a half, the civil administration had become heavily politicized, and Hasina successfully used it to win previous controversial elections.

Nonetheless, electioneering was not without violence. Although the opposition's protests were largely ineffective, clashes occurred between grassroots members of the ruling AL, who were divided over the party's nominated candidates and independent candidates from within AL. Both sides vied for control ahead of polling day.

These clashes led to at least four deaths and dozens of injuries by December. Widespread violations of the electoral code of conduct demonstrated the Election Commission's inability to enforce the rules. The law enforcement agencies, which had been tough on opposition protesters, were less stringent in addressing election-related violence. In most cases, supporters of AL-nominated candidates attacked those of independent candidates.

Signs pointed to a potentially violent polling day. Despite efforts by the government and Election Commission to ensure peace, the situation remained tense.

Throughout December, election commissioners traveled the country, urging people to support the election and meet with local administrations to ensure a free and fair process. However, their calls went largely unheeded.

On 28 December, AL General Secretary Obaidul Quader downplayed the incidents of violence, calling them sporadic.

Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen made an intriguing statement on 27 December after meeting with a team of European Union (EU) experts. "We want people from across the world to come and see, and learn from us," he said, adding that the EU team had listened but did not comment on the election.

Momen also emphasized the government's commitment to a "free, fair, non-violent, and transparent" election, aligning with the goal of building a "Smart Bangladesh" based on peace and stability.

In election rallies, Hasina led the campaign either in person or through virtual platforms. On 28 December, she urged her party members to ensure a peaceful and competitive election atmosphere.

"Since various types of local and international conspiracies against the election are there this time, it should be held amid a peaceful environment," she said.

PM Hasina sought votes for the "boat", the Awami League's electoral symbol. 

"If the Awami League stays in power, the emancipation of all the people of this country, including the poor, would come and this country would be developed and prosperous," she said.

Hasina said she did not believe that the election won't be a participatory one without the participation of BNP and Jamaat.

Mountain of wealth

The upcoming 7 January election in Bangladesh, although largely uncontested, has brought to light widespread concerns about governance, corruption, and financial irregularities. According to election laws, all candidates are required to submit wealth statements as part of their affidavits, revealing significant increases in wealth, particularly among those who have been elected multiple times. This trend suggests a correlation between repeated election wins and exponential wealth growth.

For example, Md Enamul Haque, a sitting MP from Rajshahi, reported a staggering 243,513% increase in his movable wealth over the past 15 years. He tops a list of MPs with unusually high wealth gains, with the next candidate, Zunaid Ahmed Palak, reporting a 16,742% increase in his movable assets. Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) has analyzed the wealth statements submitted by candidates ahead of the January election, uncovering alarming trends of wealth accumulation. The prevalence of candidates with immovable assets worth at least Tk1 crore (approximately $91,500) has surged, with 552 candidates in 2018 compared to 202 in 2014 and 274 in 2008.

The TIB report also highlights that most of these wealthy candidates are affiliated with the ruling Awami League (AL). Among them, 235 candidates belong to the AL, while 163 independent candidates report assets worth at least Tk1 crore. Sultana Kamal, Chairperson of the TIB Board of Trustees, expressed shock at the wealth estimates, questioning the legality of such rapid accumulation. She remarked, "The mountain of wealth we are seeing is now the new normal in our country. Some people will have crores of taka while others will worry about how to make ends meet."

On the same day the TIB released its findings, they also revealed that a senior government minister had concealed an investment of over Tk 2,000 crore abroad. TIB claims to have concrete evidence that one cabinet minister owns multiple companies abroad, none of which were disclosed in the minister's election affidavit. According to the report, the minister and his wife actively manage six companies abroad with a combined asset value exceeding Tk2,312 crore (around £16.64 million). TIB refrained from naming the minister, citing confidentiality, but said they would provide the details and documents if requested by the Election Commission or the Anti-Corruption Commission.

Despite the gravity of these allegations, the Election Commission has shown little interest in investigating the matter. When questioned, Election Commission Secretary Jahangir Alam stated that the Commission's role is limited to publishing candidates' affidavits and that it lacks the authority to investigate or prosecute such cases. Alam added that individuals who feel aggrieved by a candidate's false affidavits can file cases against them.

Although the Election Commission avoided taking action, the media later identified the minister involved as Land Minister Saifuzzaman Chowdhury Javed. Reports show that Javed owns at least 260 properties in the United Kingdom, valued at GBP 134.76 million or Tk 1,888 crore. This information is publicly available on the UK government's website, yet the Election Commission continues to ignore the issue.

The revelations about concealed wealth have raised questions about how such vast amounts of money were acquired and whether they were laundered. Concealing wealth in election affidavits is a punishable offense under Bangladesh law and can lead to disqualification. Nevertheless, no action has been taken by the Election Commission, sparking criticism and public outcry. These disclosures have intensified scrutiny at a time when the country is already facing high inflation, with many people struggling to survive.

The latest Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) for 2022, published on 26 December by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), revealed a growing income inequality problem. The report shows that the richest 5% of the population now control 30.4% of the country's wealth. Despite official claims of poverty reduction, this concentration of wealth has led to increased regional and social disparities.

Sultana Kamal commented on these disparities, stating, "We are surprised by this information. The number of landless people in our country is so high, we have not yet been able to raise the level of poverty. We have repeatedly expressed our regret about this. This was not the vision of the country. We dreamed of equality." She further questioned how candidates have managed to acquire so much wealth in such a short time, especially when laws limit the amount of land a family can own to 100 bighas.

Sultana Kamal's concerns echo the sentiments of British politician Will Crooks, who said in 1908, "Here in a country rich beyond description, there are people poor beyond description." The situation in Bangladesh reflects this disparity, with high levels of poverty and inequality threatening to undermine social stability and economic progress. According to the BBS, 21.91% of Bangladeshi households faced moderate food insecurity between January 2022 and December 2023, with Rangpur, a northern district previously celebrated for overcoming extreme poverty, now seeing 30% of its population facing moderate to severe food insecurity.

In response to the public outcry over these wealth anomalies, AL General Secretary Obaidul Quader promised on 28 December that the government would investigate the matter and take action if anyone's wealth showed an abnormal increase. However, the ruling party's track record has made many skeptical of these assurances.

In the 2008 election manifesto titled "Charter for Change," the AL made several promises aimed at improving governance, fighting corruption, and ensuring judicial independence. The manifesto pledged to stop extrajudicial killings, improve the rule of law, and depoliticize the administration. It also promised to implement strict measures against bribery, extortion, and rent-seeking, and to require annual wealth statements from powerful individuals. However, despite these promises, the situation has deteriorated over the last 15 years, with corruption and wealth concentration becoming more entrenched.

For the January 7 election, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina unveiled the AL's latest manifesto on 27 December. She claimed that her government had successfully transformed Bangladesh over the past 15 years, overcoming various challenges and making the country economically strong. "Today's Bangladesh is by no means poverty-stricken or economically fragile. I can unequivocally say that today's Bangladesh is now a 'Changed Bangladesh.' Bangladesh is now a fast-paced country moving forward with its potential," she said.

The new manifesto repeats many of the promises made in 2008, pledging to strengthen transparency, accountability, good governance, and democratic values. It also promises to eradicate social inequality and ensure the rule of law, human rights, and judicial independence. However, the manifestos from smaller parties have received little attention, as the election itself has lost its appeal due to the boycott by the ruling party's main opposition.

In summary, the upcoming election has laid bare serious governance issues in Bangladesh, including rampant corruption, unexplained wealth accumulation, and a widening gap between the rich and poor. While the ruling party continues to promise reforms, the lack of meaningful action on these issues has left many disillusioned with the political process and concerned about the future direction of the country.

Politics of elections boycott  

In Bangladesh the 1986 election has become the first election to have faced boycott by one of the two The 1986 election in Bangladesh became the first to face a boycott by one of the two major opposition alliances, led by BNP chief Khaleda Zia. She was adamant about not joining any election held under the military ruler Gen HM Ershad, who had seized power in 1981 by overthrowing the BNP government, led by Justice Abdus Sattar, in a bloodless coup.

Initially, Awami League President Sheikh Hasina, who was leading another opposition alliance's street agitation against the Ershad regime, agreed with Khaleda Zia to boycott all elections held under martial law rule. However, after the election schedule was announced, Sheikh Hasina changed her mind and decided to join the polls, held amid a boycott by the BNP-led opposition alliance, with the hope of winning.

With the participation of the Awami League, 1,124 candidates and 28 political parties contested for 300 seats. Gen Ershad's Jatiya Party won the election, which was marred by widespread allegations of irregularities. Despite the allegations, the election helped Ershad shed his military uniform and rebrand himself as a "politician." The parliament formed through this rigged election amended the constitution to validate Ershad's takeover of power and his actions while in office. The constitutional amendments also blocked the courts' jurisdiction to question the legality of any actions taken during Ershad's rule, up to November 1986, when the constitution was amended. By then, Ershad had already been controversially elected president.

After the election, the Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina, emerged as the main opposition party in parliament. However, it resigned two years later, and in another one-sided election in 1988, only 9 political parties participated, as the Awami League, BNP, and other opposition parties boycotted the polls.

Khaleda Zia, who became the first female prime minister in 1991 after elections were held under a non-partisan caretaker government following the ouster of Gen Ershad, oversaw a staged election in February 1996. In that election, 1,450 candidates and 42 parties participated, but Jatiya Party, Jamaat-e-Islami, and other opposition parties joined with the Awami League to boycott the polls, demanding a non-partisan election-time government. The parliament formed through this one-sided election was short-lived, and its primary achievement was quickly passing a constitutional amendment bill that introduced a non-partisan election-time government.

Another one-sided election was scheduled for 22 January 2007. However, political chaos ensued after the Awami League, Jatiya Party, and other opposition parties withdrew from the race weeks before the polls and launched street protests, accusing the then-election-time government, led by Iajuddin Ahmed, of favoring the BNP. The protests turned violent, prompting the military to intervene, which led to the declaration of a state of emergency, postponing the election, and the installation of a non-partisan, military-backed government.

The stalled ninth parliamentary election was eventually held after almost two years of sweeping electoral reforms. In the 2008 election, the Awami League-led alliance secured a landslide victory. However, the Hasina-led government later relied on the Supreme Court to abolish the non-partisan caretaker government system, creating a political crisis that set the stage for another one-sided election.

The first casualty of the cancellation of the caretaker government system in 2011 was the January 2014 election. The number of participating parties dropped, as by then, registration with the Election Commission had become a prerequisite for contesting parliamentary polls. Only 12 out of 38 registered parties participated in the January 2014 election. As the BNP-led alliance launched intense street protests to resist the election, Hasina introduced an "innovative model," where 153 out of 300 seats were uncontested, and MPs were elected without a single vote being cast. In the remaining 147 seats, only 543 candidates competed.

In the 2024 election, there was no shortage of contesting parties and candidates: 27 parties and 1,896 candidates participated. However, Hasina was set to surpass both Ershad and Khaleda Zia in holding staged elections. Military dictator Gen Ershad had held two stage-managed parliamentary elections during his time in power. Sheikh Hasina's tally reached three, with the 2014 and 2024 elections boycotted by the BNP and other opposition parties, and her manipulation of the 2018 polls.

During the anti-Ershad movement, all the opposition parties, including the Awami League and BNP, had agreed not to form alliances with Ershad and his party. However, Hasina's failure to win the 1991 election and Khaleda Zia's surprise victory changed the dynamics. Hasina first allied with the Jatiya Party to launch street protests against the Khaleda Zia government (1991-1996) to push for the introduction of a non-partisan caretaker government.

In 1986, Hasina had favored Ershad by participating in the parliamentary election, boycotted by the BNP and other opposition parties. Upon her return to power in 1996, she extended further favor to the deposed dictator, who was in jail following his fall on 6 December 1990. Ershad had been imprisoned throughout Khaleda Zia's full term as prime minister (1991-1996). After Ershad's party joined Hasina's "national consensus government" in June 1996, Ershad was moved from the central jail to a makeshift sub-jail within the parliament complex. He later obtained bail in all cases filed against him and was released from prison. Over time, Ershad was rehabilitated in politics as his party maintained good relations with Hasina's Awami League.

Ershad had wanted to boycott the 2014 one-sided election and ordered his party members to withdraw their candidacies. However, he was thwarted when senior leaders of his party, who had allied with the Awami League, decided to participate. Ershad was confined to a military hospital until the election was over. After the polls, he was released from the hospital, attended Sheikh Hasina's oath-taking ceremony at Bangabhaban, and was appointed special envoy to Prime Minister Hasina before returning home.

Gladiatorial contest: the story of 'two battling begums'

Politics in Bangladesh has remained a zero-sum game. 

In the 1980s, both Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia joined forces and led two separate alliances of opposition parties with the same goal: toppling military dictator Gen Ershad, who had seized power in a coup in 1982.

Under the leadership of these two women, the entire country united against the Ershad regime. Ershad's downfall in December 1990 ushered in a new era of hope for a fresh start in Bangladesh's democratic journey. Both leaders unanimously agreed to install Chief Justice Shahabuddin Ahmed as the head of a caretaker government to support the Election Commission in holding a free and fair parliamentary election.

In the largely accepted election held on 27 February 1991, Hasina faced a humiliating defeat, while Khaleda Zia unexpectedly emerged victorious. It was Khaleda's first election as the chief of the BNP, and she managed to bring the party back to power after Gen Ershad had ousted the BNP government in his 1982 coup. Khaleda Zia also made history by winning all five seats she contested, whereas Hasina won only one and lost two others. Surprisingly, Gen Ershad, despite his controversial legacy, won all five seats in Parliament that he contested.

Hasina and her party's top brass were overconfident of winning the 1991 polls and even reportedly discussed the distribution of ministerial portfolios before the election. They believed that the BNP was facing a leadership crisis after the assassination of its founder, General Ziaur Rahman, and that it was not organizationally as strong as the Awami League. However, the people's verdict shattered their expectations. Initially, Hasina alleged that the election had been rigged, but her claims held little ground as both domestic and international observers recognized the election as largely free and fair.

After her defeat, Hasina understood that a non-partisan caretaker government was necessary for her party to win power, having witnessed firsthand the unfairness of elections under partisan governments, particularly during the 1986 election under Ershad. The Awami League began to push for a non-partisan caretaker government. Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and her government rejected this demand, calling it unconstitutional.

In response, Hasina devised a master plan, offering alliances to Jatiya Party (led by the fallen dictator Ershad) and Jamaat-e-Islami, an organization branded as an anti-liberation force, to jointly pressure Khaleda Zia to leave office before the next parliamentary election. In December 1995, as many as 147 MPs from the Awami League, Jatiya Party, and Jamaat-e-Islami resigned from parliament, announcing an all-out movement to topple the Khaleda Zia government. With the political crisis intensifying, Khaleda Zia advised the president to dissolve parliament and call for an early election.

The opposition alliance boycotted the polls and intensified their agitation through nationwide hartals (strikes). The one-sided parliament formed through the election of 15 February 1996 was short-lived. Its main achievement was passing a constitutional amendment introducing a non-partisan caretaker government. Khaleda Zia handed over power to a non-partisan caretaker government led by former Chief Justice Mohammad Habibur Rahman in March 1996.

In the elections held under this non-partisan caretaker government in June 1996, Hasina marginally won, but the BNP became the largest-ever opposition party in Bangladesh, securing 116 seats. However, the animosity between Hasina and Khaleda Zia continued to grow as Hasina's opposition movement had forced Khaleda Zia from power.

Khaleda Zia's BNP launched various street protests against what they called the "misrule" of Hasina's government and demanded that she step down. Hasina completed her five-year term, and another non-partisan caretaker government was formed in July 2001. However, in the October 2001 election, the Awami League under Hasina suffered a severe defeat, securing only 62 seats—the lowest score under her leadership. Hasina alleged that the election was rigged and blamed an "international conspiracy" for preventing her party from returning to power. She also accused Khaleda Zia of making a secret deal to sell gas to a foreign country to win the election, although this accusation was never proven, as Bangladesh never sold gas.

In the 2001 election, the Awami League was defeated by the politics of electoral alliances forged by the BNP under Khaleda Zia. Hasina was overconfident about returning to power, but the wrongdoings and alleged criminal activities by some of her party MPs contributed to her party's defeat. After the election, Hasina and her party initially refused to take the oath of office, but they later changed their minds, returning to parliament only after facing the risk of losing their membership due to a constitutional provision about 90-day consecutive absences.

Following her defeat, Hasina proposed massive electoral reforms and launched street protests. In 2004, the BNP-led government amended the constitution to increase the retirement age of Supreme Court judges, which made it clear that Justice KM Hassan would become the chief advisor of the next caretaker government. Hasina refused to accept him as the chief advisor.

On 21 August 2004, an assassination attempt was made on Hasina at a rally, in which over 20 people were killed. Hasina accused the Khaleda Zia government of orchestrating the attack. This incident changed the political landscape permanently. As the election approached, the dispute over the chief advisor of the caretaker government was unresolved, and when parliament dissolved, the country was thrown into a political deadlock.

In an unexpected move, President Iajuddin Ahmed announced that he would assume the role of chief advisor of the caretaker government. He was accused of acting in the interests of the BNP. Four advisors resigned in protest against his inability to remain neutral. The Awami League-led opposition launched vigorous protests, leading to widespread violence. The president deployed the armed forces to maintain order.

Initially, the Awami League fielded candidates for the election scheduled for 22 January 2007, but they withdrew weeks before the polls and launched protests to stop the election from happening. The political crisis worsened, prompting the army to intervene. They forced Iajuddin Ahmed to step down as chief advisor, declared a state of emergency, and postponed the election.

A new caretaker government was formed, led by former central bank governor Fakhruddin Ahmed, but the army was effectively in control. The government launched a nationwide anti-corruption drive, forcing many businessmen to flee the country. Both Hasina and Khaleda Zia were detained and faced corruption charges, leading to their imprisonment.

During their detention, their parties faced internal splits. Some senior leaders of the BNP tried to reform the party, removing Khaleda Zia from leadership. Similarly, senior Awami League leaders proposed reforms but did not follow through as aggressively as their BNP counterparts. Hasina and Khaleda Zia were eventually released in 2008, and a general election was held in December that year, in which Hasina's Awami League secured a landslide victory.

After her return to power, Hasina was cleared of all corruption charges filed against her during the emergency government. Meanwhile, Khaleda Zia continued to face legal challenges. New corruption cases were filed against her, and she was convicted in two: the Zia Orphanage Trust and Zia Charitable Trust cases. In February 2018, Khaleda Zia was sentenced to five years in prison in the Zia Orphanage Trust case, a severe blow to the BNP ahead of the national elections held later that year.

Just two months before the December 2018 election, Khaleda Zia was convicted in the Zia Charitable Trust case and sentenced to seven years in prison. She was disqualified from contesting the 2018 election, which became infamous as the "night election," where the BNP faced a crushing defeat.

Tarique Rahman, Khaleda's elder son, was made acting chairman of the BNP after his mother's imprisonment. However, he has remained in exile since mid-2007, living in London, where he was sent during the emergency regime. Tarique has been convicted in absentia and sentenced to prison in several cases, making his return to Bangladesh uncertain. In 2016, he was sentenced to seven years in prison for a money laundering case and fined Tk20 crore. He was also convicted in the Zia Orphanage Trust case in February 2018 and sentenced to 10 years. Seven months later, he was sentenced to life imprisonment for his role in the 21 August grenade attack on Sheikh Hasina, with charges including conspiring with top security officials to assassinate her. In August 2023, he was sentenced to nine years in prison in another case related to amassing wealth illegally and concealing property information.

Khaleda Zia, who was jailed in February 2018, was released in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, her release came with conditions: she has been barred from traveling abroad or engaging in political activities. Her residence in Gulshan has effectively become a sub-jail. Her family's repeated appeals to send her abroad for medical treatment have been denied by the government, despite medical teams recommending advanced care abroad. On 30 September 2023, Prime Minister Hasina introduced a new condition, requiring Khaleda Zia to appear in court as part of the process for further consideration of her appeal. Two days later, Hasina made remarks about Khaleda's age and the potential consequences of her ill health, further escalating the situation.

The 78-year-old former prime minister has been suffering from various ailments, including liver cirrhosis, arthritis, diabetes, kidney, lung, heart, and eye problems. Since her conditional release from prison, she has frequently been shuttled between her home and the hospital as her health continues to

Rise of an all-powerful PM

The situation that gradually prevailed over the years became a fertile ground for the rise of Sheikh Hasina as the most powerful prime minister in the history of Bangladesh. No one could question her leadership within the party and the government.

The chief justice who led the Supreme Court in scrapping the constitutional amendment made by Hasina's government after the 2014 election, which empowered parliament to remove apex court judges, was forced to resign and leave the country. That chief justice, SK Sinha, later faced money laundering charges. In one case, he was sentenced to 11 years in prison in 2021.

In contrast, the other chief justice, ABM Khairul Haque, who cast the deciding vote to declare illegal the constitutional amendment that introduced the non-partisan election-time caretaker government, was awarded the position of chairman at the Bangladesh Law Commission after his retirement. He held the post for more than a decade.

Some senior leaders of her party, who, under the influence of the army-backed emergency government, attempted to bring reforms to the party to sideline her, were removed from the party's policy making body after the 2008 election. Hasina groomed a new leadership that was blindly loyal to her and would never pose a threat to her leadership.

The electoral reforms before 2008 introduced a provision requiring registered parties to have elected office bearers at every committee level. However, in the first council held in 2009, Hasina managed to gain the council's approval to empower her to pick all members and office bearers for the party. She selected her loyalists, excluding those who had questioned her leadership during the emergency regime. Those leaders were also left out of the cabinet formed after the Awami League won the 2008 election.

By 7 January 2024, she was poised to "win big" in the upcoming election. However, the story behind her 'big win' was one of "assailing democracy by Sheikh Hasina," as The Economist described it, "with impunity."

She had gradually doctored the entire election system, making it easier for her party to win even if the opposition joined the race. Scrapping the non-partisan election-time government allowed her to stay in power and manipulate the electoral process. Weaponizing laws against opponents, weakening institutions, buying loyalty, crushing rivals, and building her own loyal squad became standard tactics in her playbook.

Another tactic that consistently played out was her warning to the public about "anti-liberation forces" of the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. She claimed her party was the only one working for the development of Bangladesh. Hasina often boasted that none of the previous partisan governments, except for the Awami League, had done anything good for the nation and its people. She insisted that there was no alternative to her party to lead the country forward, while her party leaders claimed there was no alternative to Sheikh Hasina for building a "smart and prosperous Bangladesh."

The cost of growth  

Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina presented a contrasting picture. During her one-and-a-half-decade rule since January 2009, Bangladesh was globally praised for what was termed as spectacular economic growth and a reduction in extreme poverty. The quality of this growth was rarely questioned in the eyes of the global community. However, economists at home long questioned the growth data, terming them doctored. They also warned that the growth would not sustain if its quality was not improved.

The dark side of this rosy growth picture depicted bad governance, poor human rights records, rampant corruption, and the amassing of wealth by ministers and MPs, as revealed in their wealth statements. Economic mismanagement was rampant. Over Tk. 92,000 crore was embezzled from the banking sector in the last 15 years, according to an estimate by the Centre for Policy Dialogue. The economy began to face significant setbacks. Bangladesh confronted an economic crisis unlike anything seen before. The challenges that emerged from the adverse impact of Covid-19 and the shock of the Ukraine war, which started during the pandemic recovery period, deepened in 2023. Hasina's new government, formed after 7 January 2024, would face a herculean task in bringing back the derailed economic growth.

Her record of winning elections one after another did not glorify her politics. She won three consecutive staged-managed elections, including the 7 January one. Her regime was globally criticised and branded as authoritarian. In 2023, The Economist dubbed her Asia's Iron Lady.

She emerged as the most powerful prime minister and leader, having a firm grip on everything. Bangladesh had never seen such a powerful leader before. Even her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and the two military dictators, Gen Ziaur Rahman and Gen Ershad, did not enjoy such absolute power.

Though she proclaimed herself as a champion of democracy and people's voting rights, the facts indicated that it was Hasina who presided over the most farcical elections in Bangladesh's history.

She was often portrayed by her party men as a "messiah" for Bangladesh's poor and a leader with no alternative. In every speech, she boasted about the infrastructural developments carried out by her government over the last 15 years, claiming it would not have been possible without the Awami League in power.

However, freedom of the press shrank over the years. Government measures, such as the enactment of the Digital Security Act and later the Cyber Security Act, successfully muzzled the free press. The environment was far from healthy for free media, with journalists applying self-censorship. Journalists working in rural Bangladesh faced even greater challenges, including intimidation by local administration and ruling party men. As a result, the real picture on the ground was not fully reflected in mainstream media. For instance, the news about the land minister concealing an investment of more than $2 billion in the UK in his election affidavit did not receive much attention from the local media, which played it safe, knowing that Hasina was returning to power and more stringent measures against the media were coming.

Following the 1975 bloody changeover, Bangladesh was under direct and indirect military rule for the next 15 years until December 1990. The democratic journey from 1991 remained on bumpy roads.

Elected as the president of the Awami League in 1981, Sheikh Hasina led her party to win the election in 1996, becoming the prime minister and serving until 2001. She returned to power by winning the 2008 election, and things began to take a different shape. Her government, in 2011, cancelled the election-time caretaker government through a constitutional amendment, clearing the way for her to stay in power during elections. That constitutional amendment sowed the seeds for one-sided elections, and the 7 January election was another of its kind.

Catch the next installment in this exciting series on Monday!