Debapriya criticises formation of body for re-estimating per capita in ‘same old manner’

Debapriya Bhattacharya, the head of the White Paper committee on the state of the economy, today (17 December) voiced his disappointment over the formation of a new committee tasked with re-estimating per capita income data in "the same old manner."

"Unfortunately, today we see that the planning ministry has formed a committee in the same old manner, which is deeply frustrating," Debapriya, also a distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said during his keynote speech at a roundtable discussion in Dhaka.

"The committee comprises bureaucrats who were previously involved in manipulating data. Now, they are being tasked with overseeing the same data and information. This composition does not reflect the recommendations of the White Paper, which called for an independent committee of qualified and technically competent members," he said.

"We have also recommended formulating a law to prevent political interference in data and to safeguard the accuracy of the information," Debapriya said, emphasising the need for legislative action.

"The Planning Commission's new committee has left me disheartened as it bears no connection to reality," he said.

The roundtable, titled "Bangladesh's Aspiration to be a Middle-Income Country: Trajectory, Reality, and Perils," was organised by Diplomate World, a publication regarding diplomacy.

Regarding the broader issue of per capita income data, Debapriya said if the government decides to re-evaluate GDP growth or estimates, it must appoint a technical committee capable of reviewing the GDP data series and providing a clearer picture. 

The base year for calculations will soon need revision, and whether this should happen is purely a technical matter, he said.

Timing of LDC graduation

Referring to a recent discussion with the chief adviser about LDC graduation, Debapriya said: "When asked for my thoughts, I noted that the final decision will be taken in December 2026 in New York. We still have time."

He cautioned against rushing the process, adding, "If the economy deteriorates significantly by 2025, the decision could be reconsidered — potentially by another government. There's no need to hurry."

Debapriya warned of the political implications of delaying graduation. 

He said, "If we delay, some [previous ruler] will claim the economy was thriving under their leadership, but the subsequent government failed to graduate. Besides, they could argue, 'Everything was fine under us, but it all fell apart within a year.'"

Energy crisis

Debapriya also shared insights into the energy sector, emphasising that the challenges in this area are developmental rather than directly tied to LDC graduation.

Referring to a recent conversation with a businessman, he said, "Energy is not an issue of graduation; it's a developmental problem. It's not because you graduated but because development was not approached correctly."

He criticised the energy sector's inefficiencies, stating, "We've mismanaged our energy sector. Despite having an installed capacity exceeding 30,000 megawatts, we're unable to utilise even half of it. The projections were based on an assumption of 9% annual growth, which envisioned a need for 40,000 megawatts, but we can't even use 1,300 or 1,500 megawatts effectively."

Debapriya pointed out how data manipulation has aggravated these problems, saying, "This is a clear example of how data can be misused to create systemic issues."

Role of democratic accountability

Debapriya also linked Bangladesh's current challenges to a lack of democratic accountability, attributing it to flawed elections.

"Our problems began with the bad elections in 2018. These, along with earlier flawed elections, have undermined democratic accountability."

He explained, "In the absence of democratic accountability, politicians tend to rely on visible indicators of development to compensate for governance deficits. This pattern is evident in many countries facing similar democratic challenges."

Former diplomats, Foreign Service officials and academicians, among others, attended the event.