Trump's relationship with Europe may be very different this time: BBC report

"It's insane! We're heading for a general election. The country feels broken. Our economy is stagnant... But most German news outlets just seem obsessed with Trump, Trump, Trump!" 

Iris Mühler, a teacher in engineering in north-east Germany, is among several voters a BBC journalist spoke to ahead of the snap elections on 23 February. She isn't alone in her perception. 

Despite facing a host of domestic challenges—not least in leading EU countries, Germany and France—Europe has been very Trump-focused since he won the US presidential election in November.

The continent had a bumpy ride during his previous term in the White House. Many fear that Trump 2.0 could be much worse. And Europe's traditional powers are already grappling with their own problems.

France and Germany are mired in political and economic woes; the EU as a whole lags behind China and the US in terms of competitiveness; while in the UK, public services are in a woeful state.

So, is the continent prepared for Donald Trump, or has it been caught napping at the wheel (again)?

A businessman who dismisses alliances 

When it comes to trade and defence, Trump acts more like a transactional businessman than a US statesman who values transatlantic alliances dating back to World War Two.

"He simply doesn't believe in win-win partnerships," former German Chancellor Angela Merkel told me. She experienced Trump during his previous term and concluded he views the world through the prism of winners and losers.

He's convinced that Europe has taken advantage of the US for years, and that's got to stop.

Leaders in Europe have watched open-mouthed these last weeks since Trump won the US presidential election for the second time. He's chosen to publicly lambast allies in Europe and Canada, rather than focus his ire on those he recognises as strategic threats, like China.

Trump dangles the possibility of abandoning NATO—the transatlantic military alliance that Europe has relied on for its security for decades. He has said he'd "encourage" Russia to do "whatever the hell they want" with European allies if they "don't pay" their way more and boost their defence spending.

When it comes to trade, Trump is clearly as livid with the EU now as he was during his first term in office. The bloc sells far more to the United States than it imports from the US. In January 2022, the trade surplus was €15.4 billion (£13 billion).

Donald Trump's answer? He says he'll impose blanket tariffs on all foreign imports of 10-20%, with even higher tariffs on certain goods like cars, reports BBC.

That's a disaster scenario for Germany, which relies on exports and the automobile industry in particular. Its economy is already spluttering—last year it shrunk by 0.2%.

As the biggest economy in the eurozone, financial difficulties in Germany risk affecting the currency as a whole.

Germany is 'top of Trump's hit list' 

Merkel has said that during his previous presidency, Trump appeared to have it in for Germany.

Ian Bond, the deputy director for the Centre for European Reform, believes the country will remain "top of Trump's (European) hit list."

"What he said in the past is things like, he doesn't want to see any Mercedes-Benz on the streets of New York. Now, this is kind of nuts, because, actually, most of the Mercedes-Benz that you see on the streets of New York are made in Alabama, where Mercedes has a big plant.

"He has often been more hostile to Germany than any other country in Europe. It might be slightly easier for Germany with a new and more conservative government (after the upcoming general election), but I wouldn't be holding my breath."

The UK hopes to avoid Trump tariffs as it doesn't have such a trade imbalance with the US, but it may well get lashed by tailwinds if it comes to an EU-US trade war.

How prepared is Europe?  

Trump's bullish style can come as no surprise to allies after his first term in the White House. The real conundrum for Europe now is his unpredictability: How much is bluster and intimidation, and how much is a promise of action?

Ian Lesser, vice president at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank, believes Trump's tariff threats are real and that Europe is far from ready.

"They're not prepared, no one really is. This very different approach to global trade upsets many cornerstones of the international economy, which has evolved over decades."

The European Commission claims to be ready for any number of moves by Trump when he returns to the White House. It is a huge trade power on the world stage. But Mr Lesser says the biggest impact on Europe could come if Trump launches an aggressive trade war against China. That could result in supply chain disruptions for Europe and Beijing dumping even more cheap products on European markets, to the detriment of local businesses.

"For Europe it's double exposure: exposure to what America might do and then what China will do in response."

Trade, defence and the Musk factor 

What complicates things further is that trade and defence aren't separate issues for Trump and his administration. He recently refused to rule out economic and/or military action against EU and NATO member Denmark if it didn't hand over the autonomous territory Greenland to the US.

And Trump's incoming vice president appeared, this autumn, to make US defence of Europe conditional on EU regulatory bodies stepping away from the social platform X.

JD Vance warned the US could pull its support for NATO if the EU continued a longstanding investigation into X, which is owned by Trump's Golden Boy, Elon Musk.

Recently, Mr Musk also displayed a keenness for taking sides in European politics. He launched repeated online attacks against centre-left European leaders Sir Keir Starmer in the UK and outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Musk posted on X that the extreme anti-migration AfD party was Germany's only hope.

This shocked many in Europe, but pollsters suggest Mr Musk's controversial posts have little actual influence on European public opinion.