India face an Afghan spin test in a 'do or die' match

"Every tunnel has light at the end of it. But only those in the tunnel who believe in the light will live to see it."

That's a motivational quote Ravichandran Ashwin lived by during his days away from the Indian white-ball team. The whole team can now draw inspiration from it as they attempt to lift themselves up from what has been an all-round failure during their World Cup campaign.

Having had a couple of nights sleep to digest the implications of their dismal showing, India will resume their campaign against Afghanistan on Tuesday. Technically, they are not out of the tournament yet. But they do need a miracle: three very convincing wins and a New Zealand defeat to Afghanistan could still see them scrape through. 

"We won't be good at maths anyway being cricketers," Vikram Rathour, India's batting coach said. "At this moment the focus is to win the remaining three games. The calculation will come into picture when we go into our last game and the other results are out. At this stage the focus is to sort out our issues and win the game."

The pragmatism in the Indian camp comes from the collective failure of the batting group. Their powerplay returns so far have seen very few runs and too many wickets falling (36-3 and 35-2). The middle order has not been able to pull India out of the quagmire and there has been no launch pad for the death overs. In a format considered unforgiving for bowlers, the Indian batters did not manage a single boundary in the middle-overs against New Zealand. Lost tosses, tougher bat-first conditions are all factors the coach reiterated, but Jos Buttler's hundred against Sri Lanka--structured as a rescue mission after England were reduced to 35 for 3 in the fifth over batting first, proved what it takes to score in all conditions.

India defended their batting order juggle in the last match by saying Ishan Kishan's promotion at the top was to avoid three left-handers in the middle with Rishab Pant and Ravindra Jadeja to follow. But there was very little to explain Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli's batting struggle in the middle overs against the Kiwi spinners, turning the ball away from them. Numbers tell a tale though. Kohli and Sharma's overall record against spin is poor. They score at a strike rate of 124.89 and 116.54 respectively, with the Indian vice-captain also having a high dot ball percentage (35) and low boundary percentage (12.01).

That's not good news against Afghanistan, whose attack is comprised of spin and more spin. If Mujeeb Ur Rahman is fit again, he will combine with Mohammed Nabi and ace spinner Rashid Khan. How India plays those 12 overs at Abu Dhabi, with its long boundaries, will go a long way in deciding the outcome of the match.

"Every team that has batted first has struggled," Rathour said. "But if you want to be a champion team, you should be able to deal with these situations and conditions. You need to still find a way to get runs and rotate strike against the spinners and every batter will have a different way of doing that and you need to find your own way and back your strengths." 

Afghanistan's attack is so spin heavy that they come into the action in the powerplay, without the cushion of boundary riders. Captain Nabi has been bowling clinically with the field in. Mujeeb too bowled throughout the powerplay against Pakistan. Both have been benched frequently by their IPL franchises, and may want to make an impression against the Indian batters. But the biggest threat facing any Afghanistan attack comes after the field opens up, in the form of Rashid Khan. In all T20s, every Indian batter barring Ishan Kishan has managed runs at less than run-a-ball against Khan and been dismissed at least once. KL Rahul has been his victim thrice in IPLS, and has scored just 18 runs off 30 Khan deliveries he has faced in his career. The corresponding number for Hardik Pandya vs Khan is 27 runs off 37 balls and two dismissals. Up or down the order, Indian batters know Khan as the bogeyman.

Khan will fancy his chances with his four overs, whether he comes in to bowl in the second half of the innings or immediately after the powerplay, with India's batters short on confidence.

Veteran fast bowler Hamid Hassan, back in the side and fresh from his 3-wicket exploit in the last match against Namibia, backed his spinners to do the job.

"We have the best spinners in the world in Nabi, Rashid and Mujeeb. It is a complete team," he said.

A third straight loss, that too at the hands of Afghanistan, will send India straight out of the tournament and rock Indian cricket in a distressing way.

Kohli will wish for a little bit of luck going into the match, starting with the toss.