Where eagles dare not: Does a multipolar world signal the end of US hegemony?

Illustration: TBS

The American eagle, once the undisputed sovereign of the global skies, today finds itself staring at a fast-changing landscape. From new rising powers like China and India, and resurgent ones like Russia to the collective murmur of the Global South, a chorus of voices is demanding a share of the world's microphone.

This shift in power dynamics is reshaping the international chessboard, leaving the once-almighty American eagle perched precariously on the edge.

China: The Dragon at the Helm

At the forefront of this tectonic shift stands China, its economic and diplomatic muscles rippling with newfound confidence. President Xi Jinping's whirlwind diplomatic spree in 2023, cementing ties with a record 162 countries, was not mere coincidence.

It was a masterfully orchestrated power play, forging a united front with the often-marginalised Global South. China's economy might offer an alternate development model, a siren song for resource-rich, debt-burdened nations seeking a path beyond Washington's shadow. 

The Belt and Road Initiative, a web of infrastructure projects snaking across the developing world, serves as a tangible embodiment of this alternative, its tendrils weaving a new silk route of opportunity.

"China's rise is not just about economics," wrote Brahma Chellaney, an Indian strategic analyst, on Project Syndicate. "It's about challenging the existing global order, one built on American primacy." This sentiment resonates across the Global South, where countries like Argentina and Pakistan have embraced Beijing's embrace, eager to escape the shackles of IMF loan conditionalities and embrace a development model that prioritises infrastructure and industrialization.

BRICS: A Five-Headed Challenge

Not just China, the entirety of the BRICS alliance serves as a bold opposing force. This diverse quintet – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – may have distinct national interests, but their shared frustration with Washington's policies on trade, climate change and global governance fosters a potent synergy. Their unified condemnation of US sanctions on Russia was a clear message that the age of unquestioning American diktats is up.

"The BRICS represent a rising alternative to the G7," explains Yun Sun, director of the China Programme at the Stimson Center, in a World Bank publication. "Their focus on development, South-South cooperation, and a multipolar world order resonates with many developing countries, offering a counterweight to the traditional Western-led system."

This resonates in initiatives like the New Development Bank, established by the BRICS as a rival to the World Bank, and the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement, a safety net for member states facing financial difficulties, initiatives that offer alternatives to the Washington-controlled Bretton Woods institutions.

Europe: Cracks in the Alliance

Even within the seemingly monolithic walls of the European Union, cracks are appearing in the façade of transatlantic unity. While the war in Ukraine has momentarily pushed some European nations closer to the US, others like France and Germany are increasingly advocating for a more independent European foreign policy, less tethered to Washington's wings.

The Macron Doctrine, for instance, calls for a more assertive European role in global affairs, reflecting a growing desire to break free from the American orbit.

As Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies in Rome, wrote in an International Crisis Group report. "Europe is waking up to the reality of a multipolar world. While the US remains a vital security partner, Europe needs to be able to speak with its own voice on issues like trade, climate change and the Middle East."

This sentiment seems evident in recent European efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal and promote a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, areas where Europe has found itself at odds with US policy.

The Middle East: A Shift in the Sands

The Middle East, long considered an American backyard patrolled by US boots, is also witnessing a fascinating recalibration of power dynamics.

Saudi Arabia, once a stalwart US ally, has embarked on a delicate courtship with China, culminating in a recent joint statement emphasising closer bilateral ties. Similarly, the United Arab Emirates is playing a game of strategic realignment, balancing its traditional security guarantees from the US with burgeoning economic partnerships with Beijing.

This trend manifests in areas like energy, where China has become a major oil importer for the region, and infrastructure, where Chinese companies are playing a key role in developing mega-projects across the Gulf.

But perhaps the most transformative aspect of this reshaping world order is the newfound voice of the Global South. No longer content with being relegated to the sidelines, these nations are demanding a seat at the decision-making table, their voices rising in a chorus that cannot be easily silenced.

"The key reason as to why many of these countries have a positive view of China is not just because China doesn't interfere in their affairs, it's because they have not seen China conduct itself in a way that would be threatening to them, or that has the potential of being threatening," Trita Parsi, the co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington-based think tank told Al Jazeera in a recent interview.

The US does not enjoy that reputation, even among some of its traditional partners — and the sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine have added to the unease in the region's capitals.

The Global South finds its voice

The African continent, long burdened by the shackles of colonialism and neocolonialism, is finally flexing its muscles. The African Union, a once-fragmented body, is finding its unity, speaking with a collective voice on issues like climate change, resource exploitation and global governance. Initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) showcase a commitment to economic integration and self-reliance, breaking free from dependence on Western markets and aid.

Latin America, a region steeped in a history of US intervention and exploitation, is also witnessing a resurgence of regional identity. The Pink Tide, a wave of left-wing governments sweeping across the continent, is prioritising social welfare, environmental protection, and regional cooperation. Initiatives like the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our Americas (ALBA) and the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) offer alternatives to Washington-led institutions like the Organisation of American States (OAS).

Bangladesh's recent election, held on 7 January 2024, serves as a powerful microcosm of the shifting power dynamics discussed above. The ruling Awami League, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, secured a landslide victory, and the US alleged that the elections were not 'free and fair'. 

However, its claims were overwhelmingly drowned by the response from the Global South that congratulated PM Hasina. Both Indian PM Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping personally congratulated Sheikh Hasina. Even the responses of the EU and the UK were not in line with the US views. This also shows how the US hegemony in world politics has waned over the months, especially after the Israeli genocide in Gaza and the role that the US played there.

This trend transcends traditional East-West divides. Brazil, for instance, prioritised a visit from China's Xi Jinping over US President Biden, underscoring the pragmatism driving the Global South's engagement with rising powers. 

Bangladesh's case suggests that even countries ideologically aligned with the West are no longer willing to blindly follow Washington's lead, prioritising their own economic and strategic interests. New poles are forming, sands are shifting and the Global South is rising. The tune to which the world dances is changing; is Washington listening?