Fire and Oil: what can be consequences of US attack on Iran

With the latest spat between Iran and the US escalating into dangerous territory with the deaths of three US soldiers in a drone strike, calls for a decisive strike on Iran are rising among US politicians. 

But what would be the consequences of a hot war beginning next to one of the most trafficked waterways in the world?

Nothing good.

Iran, with its position near the Strait of Hormuz, could cause global economic shockwaves. The Strait sees 40% of international crude oil trade pass through it, and with such easy access Iran could cause severe disruptions by mining the waterway. 

Even if quickly countered, it would cause oil prices to spike even higher than they already have. That, however, may not be Iran's first move in response to a US attack.

"Traditionally, when faced with this sort of American action, Iran doesn't tend to respond directly and immediately, but they do so asymmetrically and over a period of time," said Ray Takeyh, a former State Department official. 

Iran would ideally also try to avoid a direct, conventional war.

It can, however, destabilise the Middle East further, engaging the US on multiple fronts to wear it down. 

Iran's vast network of proxies and elite units — like Soleimani's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — could be activated to kill American troops, diplomats, and citizens throughout the region.

Experts note that the Islamic Republic likely has sleeper cells in Europe and Latin America, and they could resurface in dramatic and violent ways.

Another aspect of Iran's offence could be in the digital sphere.

Iran is considered a major threat to the US in cyberspace. 

Tehran has also been linked to malware attacks around the world.

If the US does enter Iran, then they are expected to be met with insurgency-like tactics. 

Iran's overall goal is to drive out US forces from the region, and it likely sees 2024 as a year of critical opportunity, with anti-American and pro-Iranian sentiments rising in the context of the war in Gaza. 

Iranian-aligned parties have already pressured the Iraqi government to launch talks with the United States about a potential withdrawal of US troops. 

The Biden administration has reportedly considered withdrawing US forces from Syria, though denied it after the news broke. 

By attacking shipping in the Red Sea, the Houthis have attracted unprecedented support, and are now the target of a US air campaign. 

Tehran likely hopes that increasing violence will result in the US either choosing to retreat from the region or being forced to do so by allies. 

They likely recognise that the year may end with the election of Donald Trump, who has long advocated the withdrawal of US forces from much of the region.

Meanwhile, the US strategy would almost certainly involve using overwhelming air and naval power to beat Iran into submission early on.

The US military would bomb Iranian ships, parked warplanes, missile sites, nuclear facilities, and training grounds, as well as launch cyberattacks on much of the country's military infrastructure.

Thousands of Iranians, mostly innocent civilians, would die in such an attack. 

Meanwhile, countries friendly with Iran – China and Russia – would try to dissuade such an attack by the US. 

A ground invasion by the US, however, will be complicated owing to the geography. 

Entering from Afghanistan would mean having to journey through treacherous mountain ranges and two deserts. 

The West would be blocked by Turkey, a NATO ally. 

The southwest, where the Tigris and Euphrates rivers meet, would be a swampy affair. Besides that, there are also the towering Zagros Mountains to negotiate. 

Most important to any conflict would be what happens next. 

There will be millions of deaths. A broken Iran would mean a power vacuum which Iran's clerical and military circles would try to fill. A civil war like seen in Syria, Iraq and Libya would prompt more rounds of violence and even a refugee crisis.

America's offence would lead to it rendering Iran into a failed state, a consequence the US has meted out to many others.