Illusive climate justice in the time of climate change 

A significant disparity exists in the complex web of international relations. Developed nations, which are the primary producers of greenhouse gas emissions, reap the benefits of industrialization and advancement. Meanwhile, the Global South is disproportionately affected by environmental degradation and its severe aftereffects.

This is, of course, old news. What is new however is the increased intensity at which climate scientists are ringing the alarm bells in recent months. The substantial increase in extreme weather events across the world is proof, once again, that these warnings are not merely statements made by manic climate scientists.   

While the extreme weather events, especially in recent years, continue to cause physical havoc, it was the 2015 Paris Agreement at the 21st UN Climate Change Conference (COP) that brought climate change to the centre of global discourse. By now, nearly all mainstream media outlets have a section dedicated to just climate change documenting more sinister real-life stories with nearly every new edition. 

Recently, a couple of things stood out: A record-breaking increase in CO2 levels in the world's atmosphere in a 12-month period recorded in March 2024 and an exclusive The Guardian survey found 80% of 400 climate experts expect a rise of at least 2.5C in temperature above preindustrial levels in this century. 

Additionally, a study in the journal Nature published on 8 May found climate change will reduce future global income by about 19% in the next 25 years compared to a fictional world that's not warming. By 2049, climate change's economic cost is set at $38 billion – and "the poorest regions and those least responsible for warming the planet will take the biggest hit."

Against this backdrop, the demand for climate justice is loud and clear. 

 'How many more COP meetings do we need to drive home to you this message?'

"The year 2022 has proven to be a very important milestone year as far as climate change is concerned, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 6th Assessment Report made it very clear that human-induced climate change due to over one-degree centigrade rise in global temperature is now unequivocally causing adverse impacts which, in turn, are causing losses and damages in all countries. 

Thus, humanity has now entered the era of 'loss and damage' from human-induced climate change and no country is adequately prepared to address the consequences," wrote the late Saleemul Huq, Bangladesh's most renowned climate scientist, in an earlier article. 

It is critical to recognise that the effects of climate change are not evenly distributed but rather that they exacerbate already-existing disparities and disproportionately affect the Global South.

TBS Illustration

Think about the predicament of countries like Togo –  tucked away on the blue coast of West Africa. Togo's contribution to global emissions is negligible. But the country is on the verge of disappearing due to increasing sea levels brought on by climate change. 

"Togo's former capital city, Aneho, and dozens of surrounding villages are likely to disappear from the map by 2038," according to a 2016 The New Humanitarian report, a non-profit news agency based in Switzerland, "If nothing is done to reverse the erosion that is currently eating away between six and 10 meters of coastal land each year." 

8.8 million-strong Togo's predicament is representative of a wider pattern; other countries in the Global South are facing the catastrophic effects of climate change. 

Tuvalu's Foreign Minister Simon Kofe went viral in 2021 for all the right reasons. He gave a speech at the COP26 standing in knee-deep water. The 11,000-strong independent island nation located halfway between Hawaii and Australia is one at the front line of climate change. It is already sinking due to the rise in sea levels.  

It is also a prime case of climate justice or the lack thereof. According to a 2023 Washington Post story "A sinking nation is offered an escape route. But there's a catch." – Tuvalu has struck a Union deal with Australia, which will allow 280 people per year to move to Australia. 

"At that rate, it would take 40 years for all of Tuvalu's 11,000 current inhabitants to leave the archipelago," wrote WaPo's Michael E Miller, "[but] Predictions about sea level rise caused by global warming suggest Tuvalu could become uninhabitable before that."

In October 2023, Tuvalu amended its constitution "to become the world's first digital nation, with the government last year announcing a plan to create a clone of itself in the metaverse, preserving its history and culture online so that people can use virtual reality to visit the islands long after they're underwater." 

At COP28 last year, Tuvalu's Prime Minister Kausea Natano said, "As a nation, we have come to the shocking realisation that we now exist to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change," and how many more conferences are needed to send the message to the world of its devastating predicament. 

While the Treaty signed with Australia means visas and assistance for the Tuvalu people, it also comes with compromises such as Canberra having to approve any of Tuvalu's security or defence deal with another entity. One can see the diplomatic or geopolitical tug of war at display here rationing off an island nation's vulnerability. 

But perhaps the most frustrating component of all in the Treaty is "it does not require Australia, one of the world's biggest fossil fuel exporters, to take more action on global warming."  

There is clear evidence of climate injustice everywhere one looks, from Bangladesh, where storms and flooding force millions of people to relocate every year, to the Maldives, a group of low-lying atolls threatened by flooding. These countries are victims of a system that puts economic expansion ahead of environmental conservation. Other dire examples include the Marshall Islands and Pacific Island nation Kiribati. 

The problem

Although developed countries – those who are the largest emitters of greenhouse gases – have stepped up in recent years, committing to climate finance and actions to tackle climate change, it may not be enough in speed or merit.  

For instance, at COP28 last year, Australia was one of the nearly 200 countries which agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. But the country which was the largest greenhouse gas emitter per head in G20 in 2021 faces a lot of criticism for its lacklustre approach to tackling climate change. 

Critics are chiefly concerned that the government has refused to outlaw new coal, oil and gas projects, BBC reported. 

While the Australian government has already greenlit three new coal mine projects last year, its new 2030 target of cutting emissions by 43% is not enough to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5C, according to BBC. This target is set by the Albanese administration which banked on its climate goals during the 2022 elections, especially since Australia has been facing more direct impacts of climate change.  

"However Australia's target is also weaker than many of its international peers, such as the US or UK," the report says. 

United States is an interesting case. The largest contributor to global warming turned the strides during the Obama administration by backdoor lobbying to bring China to the Paris Agreement table in 2015, according to a 2023 NPR story. 

But as we all know, with 2016 Trump's election win, the US walked out of the agreement signalling a turn for the worse for climate change. Under Biden's administration, elected in 2020, climate change was put back on the agenda. However, "There's just a trust deficit in particular with the US," Nisha Krishnan, climate director for the World Resources Institute's Africa office in Nairobi, told NPR. 

She says the issue often comes down to money and explains why countries are frustrated with the US. "Rich countries like the US promise to pay hundreds of billions of dollars to help poorer countries transition to clean energy and adapt to climate change," she told NPR, pointing out that Congress hasn't allocated much of the money to make those payments.

The EU, Canada and China are among the others heavily criticised for their slow or inadequate response to climate change. 

What did COP achieve?

The Paris Agreement – the international treaty on climate change adopted by 196 parties at the UN in 2015 – has been COP's latest achievement. Although the COP meetings may appear to be a lot of red tape and bureaucracy, they are actually rather important for combating climate change, particularly in the face of strained political will. There's also mistrust among states which requires a delicate dance. 

Setting objectives is one thing but achieving them is quite another. If we are to understand the significance of the COP conference every year, visualise a large family get-together where everyone attends to discuss the state of our progress toward achieving the climate goals. So the negotiations, the back and forth, the all-time consuming process — while the planet burns – is frustrating but necessary, according to experts. 

The Paris Agreement is also appreciated by many because it's not a one-size-fits-all solution. Rather, each nation is free to determine its own policies and objectives for cutting greenhouse gas emissions. 

Last year, according to UNFCC, the Green Climate Fund (GCF) received a boost to its second replenishment with six countries pledging new funding at COP28, with total pledges now standing at a record $12.8 billion from 31 countries, with further contributions expected.

According to local media reports, in a first in Asia, development partners – spearheaded by IMF –  announced an $8 billion fund to Bangladesh (dubbed as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change) to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change during COP28. 

Time will tell if climate funds can offset the loss and damage caused by climate change.