Myanmar coup: Rohingya repatriation now more uncertain

The ousting of the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi and seizure of power by the military in a coup in Myanmar on Monday has pushed the process of repatriation of Rohingya refugees into further uncertainty.

A meeting on the repatriation process was supposed to be held between Myanmar and Bangladesh this week.

In the current situation, Bangladesh has expressed hope that the democratic process and constitutional arrangements will be upheld in Myanmar and the Rohingya repatriation process will continue.

"We have been persistent in developing mutually beneficial relations with Myanmar and have been working with the country for the voluntary, safe and sustained repatriation of the Rohingya people sheltered in Bangladesh. We expect these processes to continue in the right earnest," said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday.

The ministry said Bangladesh firmly adheres to and promotes democratic ethos and as an immediate and friendly neighbor, Bangladesh would like to see peace and stability in Myanmar.

According to international relations analysts, Myanmar has never been sincere in taking the displaced Rohingya people. Meetings at various times have rather delayed the process of their repatriation on various excuses, they observed.

The polarisation of international and regional politics has also been seen as a major factor.

Bangladesh has held a tripartite meeting with China and Myanmar in the latest diplomatic process on this issue. Bangladesh has requested India to assist in the process. Despite positive assurances from all sides, no positive results have been achieved till date.

Professor Delwar Hossain, former chairman of the Department of International Relations at Dhaka University, said the international community has not created enough pressure on the Myanmar authorities to make them repatriate the Rohingya refugees. On top of this, some of the global powers have supported Myanmar.

"Now, Myanmar itself has opened a new front for Bangladesh. The military government will be weak due to a legitimacy crisis. It is possible to create immense pressure on Myanmar to take back the Rohingya refugees, if Bangladesh can show success diplomatically making use of the concerns of the international community."

Former foreign secretary Touhid Hossein thinks it needs a few days to know whether the meeting on the Rohingya repatriation process, which is slated for this week, will take place.

"Was the government led by Aung San Suu Kyi able to make any decision on foreign affairs independently, bypassing the military?

"Actually, there is no qualitative difference between the two governments."

"In this situation, we have to look to the international community. We will try to put pressure on the Myanmar government through them."

Another international relations analyst, Professor Imtiaz Ahmed, argued that there will not be much change in the diplomatic process, as the Rohingya issue is now being discussed internationally.

"The response from the international community is that now there is an opportunity to impose sanctions on Myanmar. In that case, Bangladesh should take advantage of the opportunity We have to be proactive to make sure that the Rohingya issue is there among the conditions of the sanction."

He further added that we cannot afford to sit idle if the emergency situation in Myanmar continues for one year.

"Bangladesh must stick to its previous stance with regard to the repatriation of the refugees. It is time to let the world community know more strongly about Bangladesh's position.

Within a few months of the start of a crackdown by the Army in Rakhine, Myanmar on 25 August 2017, more than 7,00,000 Rohingya people fled to Bangladesh to seek refuge.

In the midst of international pressure, the Myanmar government signed an agreement with Bangladesh at the end of that year to take back the Rohingya, but the repatriation has not started yet.

In 2019, the two-party repatriation initiative was launched, but the security situation in the Rakhine state continued to deteriorate.

As part of the repatriation process, Bangladesh has already handed over a list of 8.3 lakh Rohingya to Myanmar. Of these, only 42,000 have been verified by Myanmar.

This was followed by a trilateral meeting between China, Bangladesh and Myanmar in January this year. A meeting between Bangladesh and Myanmar was supposed to be held in the first week of February.

On Sunday, Foreign Minister Dr AK Abdul Momen said Myanmar responded positively to begin Rohingya repatriation with the next round of talks scheduled for the first week of February.

He said they gave a figure to begin the repatriation and Bangladesh asked them to begin.

In a separate briefing on Sunday after returning from India, Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen said they briefed the Indian side about the recently held tripartite meeting among Bangladesh, Myanmar and China; and the roadmap ahead for repatriation.

He said Bangladesh expressed its hope that India would support in ensuring safety, security and sustainable livelihood of Rohingya once they cross the border through repatriation.