Argentina expected to bring their A-game against Australia
It's just really, really tough to see Australia have any way through here. Argentina will be wary of the Socceroos, especially after the opening loss to Saudi Arabia which will have the Albiceleste on high alert for underestimating any lesser opponents.
Argentina have shaken off the opening round shocker to Saudi Arabia and are now ready to push through the knockout stage, hoping to provide Lionel Messi with an elusive World Cup title in what is expected to be his swansong tournament.
Still, they'll have to get past a plucky Australia side that shocked Denmark in the group stage finale to secure progression to just their second-ever World Cup knockout game.
The Socceroos will hope it goes better than last time they were here, as they were eliminated in heartbreaking fashion back in 2006 by eventual champions Italy. The Italians were a man down after Marco Materazi was sent off just after halftime, but they hung on until Francesco Totti scored a 96th-minute penalty to send them through to the quarterfinals.
With Aussie fans still on a high from the scenes against Denmark, they'll have to regroup and push forward hoping lightning can indeed strike twice against Argentina to follow in Saudi Arabia's footsteps and ruin Messi's going away party.
Team News
Though surely loath to change a winning team, Lionel Scaloni could feel the need to alter his starting lineup once again, given a rapid turnaround between games.
Lisandro Martinez could therefore come into contention for a place in central defence, while Lyon's Nicolas Tagliafico aims to usurp Marcos Acuna at left-back.
After making a substantial impression as a substitute in both of Argentina's first two matches at the finals, Enzo Fernandez is set to hold off the challenge of Leandro Paredes, who has been consigned to the bench against both Poland and Mexico.
Meanwhile, Lautaro Martinez was among a deep trove of attacking riches starting on the sidelines on Wednesday night, but Julian Alvarez's goal may give him the edge in a battle to join stalwarts Angel Di Maria and Lionel Messi up front.
Australia are expected to have a full squad at their disposal for the historic matchup with Argentina this weekend. Martin Boyle was named in the initial 26-man contingent but had to pull out with a knee injury. However, the Hibernian winger has remained in Qatar - on crutches - as the team's "vibes manager".
Key Stats
- These two nations have met twice previously, with Argentina winning both, including a wild 4-2 result in the group stage of the 2005 Confederations Cup which featured a hat-trick from Luciano Figueroa, three of his nine all-time national team goals.
- Lionel Messi's nine chances created this World Cup are tied for second in the tournament, behind only the 11 for Antoine Griezmann. Of the three players Messi is tied with, only one of them, Theo Hernandez of France, is on a team that made it out of the group stage.
- Australia defender Harry Souttar is tied for second in the World Cup with 20 clearances, behind only Kalidou Koulibaly of Senegal with 25. Souttar is also, consequently, tied for second in the World Cup in aerial duels won with 11, behind three players on 12. Souttar has a better aerial duel win percentage (73.3%) than anyone tied or above him in volume of successful aerial duels.
Prediction
It's just really, really tough to see Australia have any way through here. Argentina will be wary of the Socceroos, especially after the opening loss to Saudi Arabia that will have the Albiceleste on high alert for underestimating any lesser opponents.
Argentina have conceded just 0.74 expected goals through three matches, the second-lowest total of the tournament behind only Brazil, who sit on 0.48 through two group stage matches. Australia, mind you, have scored their three goals on just 1.73 xG, so they're happy to finish difficult chances, but even those will be few and far between here. With Messi pulling the strings, even one goal should be enough to see Argentina advance.