Sajeeb Wazed, this is why we are ‘ungrateful’...
Sajeeb Wazed, the son of ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina, recently told several international media outlets that people of Bangladesh are ‘ungrateful’ for the economic development that the Awami League supposedly ushered in during its rule. But does that narrative hold up to scrutiny?
In 2017, a World Bank report styled 'Bangladesh Continues to Reduce Poverty but at Slower Pace' showed, using data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), that the speed at which the country was reducing poverty had slowed down during 2010 to 2016, contrary to 2000 to 2010 period. The rate of extreme poverty reduction slowed down even more.
But no one, from the local and international actors — organisations and media alike — took any hint. For the years to come, they continued praising the supposed growth of Bangladesh's economy, based on government data, riding on the megaprojects implemented mostly with international loans.
This successfully made a false impression, leading many to believe that the country was going to be the next Singapore. When Sajeeb Wazed, the son of ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina recently told several international media that people of Bangladesh are "ungrateful", it shows that he is still using the development narrative that is being now being exposed as a 'house of cards', since the fall of the AL government.
Behind all the PR stunts, what happened is that the country's economy experienced a growth riding on public expenditure, powered by rising foreign debt, which failed to create employment. Private and foreign direct investment remained stagnant, and at the same time, thanks to unusually expensive mega projects, quick rentals and unabated loan defaults, some quarters close to the government amassed wealth beyond imagination, much of which has already been laundered out of the country.
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Thankfully, the student movement that led to the overthrow of the AL rule also created a conducive environment for all — economists, academics and journalists — to speak out, calling out the narrative that Sajeeb is trying to push to the global media.
All the megaprojects implemented by the AL government cost excessive amounts of money. The Padma Bridge Rail Link Project is said to be the most expensive (Tk39,247 crore) compared to similar projects implemented in the Asia-Pacific region. Dhaka's Metro Rail Line-6 project (Tk33,472 crore) ranks first in expenses in entire Asia, and the per-kilometre road construction of Dhaka-Mawa-Bhanga expressway is the most expensive in the world (Tk11,000 crore for 54.7km of road equating to Tk201 crore per kilometre), according to reports.
There have been allegations of mega-theft in mega projects, that has likely caused the super-high project expenses. While some of the corruption has already been unearthed by the media, such as the sensational pillow and curtain procurement scandals, they are believed to be petty graft compared to what is awaiting to be exposed once fair investigations take place.
Experts are now calling for redoing feasibility studies of unfinished megaprojects earlier conducted by the AL government. Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at World Bank Dhaka office, told TBS, "The megaprojects need a reevaluation. A commission can be formed to oversee this.
"The feasibility studies need to be revisited as well, because there are a lot of questions regarding these studies. Then we must decide whether these projects will be redesigned to make them more sustainable or whether they will be completed as is," he added.
Equating these megaprojects to the 'temple strategy of development,' the economist said these 'temples' need to be identified and reevaluated. This strikes right in the heart of Awami development narrative based on megaprojects.
Outside the temple strategy, the country's overall economy is also under renewed scrutiny.
Dr Fahmida Khatun, executive director of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), told TBS that the economy has been in a shattered state for the last few years.
"This is not something that happened all of a sudden; this is a culmination of wrong policies and also a lack of institutional reform and lack of good governance. This is why all the economic strength gradually weakened," she said, adding that the so-called growth could not generate employment.
Also, while poverty reduction slowed down, the average income of the population increased steadily, as per government data, indicating that the wealth gap was increasing.
"All the benefits derived from economic growth were not shared by the common people. During the last 15 years, a strong group of beneficiaries evolved, who were connected to political parties and powerful people," Fahmida said.
"The corrupt politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen — these three groups swindled, or extracted from the economy. Due to the huge wastage and corruption caused by them, the cost of implementing all these big projects — Padma Bridge, Expressway etc — were multiplied by several times," she added.
As a result, the country's foreign debt at the moment stands at around $100 billion. On top of that, foreign exchange reserves came down to below $20 billion from over $42 billion in a single year. The contractionary economic policies taken by the government coupled with withdrawal of subsidies in the energy and power sector led to price hikes of many essentials, making the lives of the limited-income people harder.
The situation with the forex reserve has already gone out of control, marked by Sheikh Hasina's failed attempt to secure a $5 billion loan from China just last month.
Bangladesh is also grappling with high default loans, the amount being close to Tk182,292 crore, apart from an unclear amount of loans having been written off. Reports say the amount is several hundred thousand crore taka.
And then, it is difficult to assess the real situation as experts find it hard to rely on data provided by government agencies. In a programme hosted in 2022 by CPD, noted economists and researchers said the ongoing data anarchy appears to have turned into data terrorism, causing serious obstacles to policy formulation.
The AL government also has to take responsibility for the unprecedented money laundering that happened during their rule. According to Washington-based Global Financial Integrity, around Tk74,000 crore was laundered from Bangladesh each year.
Not only did the Hasina government fail to take strong measures to tackle the issues, but also, whenever the media exposed big money laundering instances perpetrated by business groups known for their closeness with the then government, the Hasina government failed to even initiate an investigation.
Moreover, when default loans brought banks to their knees, instead of stopping the willful defaulters, Bangladesh Bank under the AL government continued printing money to feed the banks owned by people close to it.
The impact has not been great on the economy of the country, to say the least.
"In the last 15-16 years, the economy came to this point because of a complete lack of good governance and institutional reform," said Dr Fahmida Khatun.
Of course, one could possibly ask, how is Bangladesh then improving on social development indicators?
Shahidul Alam, renowned photographer and journalist gave a fitting answer to this in an interview with Al Jazeera hosted by Mehedi Hasan right after his (the former's) release from the prison in 2018.
"Bangladesh is doing better despite the government, not because of it," Shahidul said.
