Why Dhaka's traffic woes might soon get worse
Consolidating supplementary flyovers and other additional traffic infrastructures might seem like an effective way to curb Dhaka’s traffic congestion. But ‘induced demand’ in economics pertaining to the economic theory of supply and demand, tells otherwise
Congested roads are one of Dhaka's defining traits. For many, it may just be a talking point to highlight the many failures of Dhaka's urban planning, but for its twenty or so million residents, it is nothing less than the ninth circle of hell.
Understandably, whenever there is a prospect of a new freeway being opened, take the Dhaka Elevated Expressway for instance, or a fresh extension of the city being constructed, like Purbachal, the general reaction is not one of concern but rather one of relief.
Many may even question what exactly might there be to be concerned about. After all, more space and more roads are supposed to be a good thing. If you have more cars, then just build more roads, right?
Well, not exactly.
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There is this observed economic phenomenon called Induced Demand; which essentially says, "the more you build, the more they'll buy." In terms of infrastructure, it means the addition of lanes to an existing road, even if done to curb congestion, induces a need for further addition of lanes.
In rapidly growing areas where roads were not designed for the ever-increasing population, there is a significant latent demand for new road capacity. This causes a flood of new drivers to immediately take to the freeway once the new lanes are opened, quickly congesting them again.
The Katy Freeway in Texas is the most widely cited instance of this phenomenon. However, for a more local perspective, consider the Dhaka-Mymensingh Highway; one of the widest and most well-maintained roads in the country.
Even though recently consolidated with supplementary flyovers, it still experiences massive traffic jams stretching for miles ever so often. Just in October of last year, there was a complete gridlock of vehicles on this road that extended as far south as Banani.
Now, if simply the lack of road space or the lack of proper road maintenance were the only issues, then how does this still keep happening? Wasn't this the very thing all those flyovers were built to mitigate?
And this brings me to the central assertion of this article; that projects like the Dhaka Expressway, and the car-dependent infrastructure of the up-and-coming Purbachal New Town, might just end up invigorating the very problem they are being constructed to alleviate.
In other words, what we are doing now is the same as treating the symptoms of a greater illness while ignoring the illness itself.
For cities like Dhaka, one of the largest megacities on the planet, it is not really viable to have a car-dependent infrastructure. Car culture, as it is called, is markedly prevalent in countries like the United States, but only because they have the necessary space to accommodate such a system.
But try the same approach in a settlement as densely packed as Dhaka, and the only thing you are likely to achieve is misery. As it stands now, even though accounting for just 6% of the total population, car owners occupy up to 76% of all road space in the city.
Again, this is not simply due to the lack of adequate roads, or a failure of urban planning. Yes, these two factors both play a role in the catastrophe. But the primary reason is that people are often left with no real alternatives to turn to.
Dhaka does not have a proper mass transit system yet, it does not have a tram system, nor does it have subway system, or even a reliable bus network. So, if you are a resident of Dhaka, the choice you have is to either depend on its dismal public transport system or get rich enough to avoid it. And understandably, most choose the latter.
But unfortunately, Dhaka was neither built to sustain such a level of automobile usage nor is it in any position to implement one now. And given the upward trend of Bangladesh's economy, alongside the growth of the middle class, and the deep centralisation rooted within Dhaka, the effect of that 6-76 ratio will be further aggravated in the coming years.
On a similar note, flyovers have also been observed to exhibit a corollary effect of induced demand, wherein newly built flyovers prompt car owners to take more frequent trips (known as induced trips) which they otherwise would not have taken, which in turn contributes to increased congestion.
Surprisingly, a study presented at the World Conference on Transport Research 2019 found that "policymakers do not consider induced trips when making plans for the construction of transport infrastructure" – that is to say, the road and transport authorities generally ignore the effects of induced traffic demand for the sake of their convenience.
There are of course a lot of nuances when it comes to presenting a solution. But in short, we must increase investment in public transit and therefore disincentivise people from purchasing cars: Public buses with better utilities and better maintenance, improvement in the quality and capacity of the railways, and the introduction of trams/metro-rail/subways.
As opposed to building more and more roads, an efficient rail transport solution to satisfy the travel demand will discourage consumers from ever needing cars to make that trip. Some headway has already been made on that last point with the six planned MRT lines, but they may not be enough.
And most importantly, it would perhaps be better to invest in more walkable and further interconnected city blocks in the newly built extensions of Dhaka, instead of the suburbia-styled residential areas we see in Uttara, Bashundhara, or Purbachal.
Superblocks, the likes of which have already been implemented in places like Barcelona and Vienna, would be far more effective in making Dhaka more livable than any measures we are currently taking (and cheaper too.)
With all being said, the adoption of such radical concepts is unlikely at this time due to the conservative nature of our bureaucracy. We are more likely to readily invest in the 'safer option' even though that may further cement our reliance on private automobiles.
However, if it ever comes to something that may actually make a difference, nothing of the sort will be done because the risk associated with it is not seen as necessary, yet. There may be some progress in the right direction, but not nearly enough; because breaking conventions is a difficult task.
Worse still is the fact that hardly anyone seems to be worried about this conundrum at the time, which is tragic because ignoring the issue will not stop it from coming back to haunt us in the future.
To quote the famed City Planner Jeff Speck, "it is the great intellectual black hole in city planning, the one professional certainty that every thoughtful person seems to acknowledge, yet almost no one is willing to act upon."
So, it would seem the ninth circle of hell will be here for a while because Dhaka's traffic situation in the coming years is unlikely to improve, though there is a good chance it might instead get worse.
Abrar Fahyaz is an undergraduate student of the University of Dhaka.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.
