Oil ‘Tourists’ pile into market amid biggest rally in two years
Retail investors are trying to cash in on crude’s surge higher and that’s injecting more volatility into an unpredictable market
Reza Dilmaghani mostly trades equities, but for the past week he's been dipping in and out of the oil market, lured by crude's biggest weekly rally in nearly two years.
"Ever since we reached $67, it's been going up quite steadily and orderly," said Dilmaghani, a Phoenix-based day trader who's been trying to capitalise on the market's short-term direction. "When it's orderly, it's great."
He's not the only so-called oil "tourist" flocking to the market as war risk sends futures surging. With Iran's attack on Israel sending oil prices skyrocketing by more than $6 a barrel in the past week, retail investors are piling into oil-linked products.
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Volumes in the United States Oil Fund — the largest exchange-traded product tracking the price of oil — surged this week to the highest levels since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Similarly, CME Group's Micro WTI futures — which trade on retail investment sites — posted the biggest daily volume since January this week. The company's weekly options, which traders use to hedge short-term risk in prices, saw open interest jump to a record of almost 80,000 contracts this week.
While that's bringing much needed liquidity into a futures market that has sidelined commercial players, it's also threatening to fuel more volatility.
Opportunistic traders that pop quickly in and out of the market during major world events have had a significant impact on oil prices in recent years. In 2020, as demand concerns sent prices spiralling lower, a massive incursion of retail investors into the market contributed to US oil briefly turning negative.
The jump in USO volumes this week "coincided with higher-than-usual crude oil volatility," said John Love, chief executive officer of USCF Investments, which manages USO.
One measure of volatility jumped this week to the highest level in two years.
That creates risk for more traditional traders. Retail investors piling into the market on the back of escalating geopolitical tension are helping to boost prices higher than fundamentals justify. If the conflict in the Middle East doesn't actually impact crude supplies, the market could tank, according to Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TC ICAP.
That doesn't worry Dilmaghani, for one simple reason: "I do not hold anything overnight."
