Uranium, military bases and foreign intervention: Is Niger the new battleground for geopolitical warfare
The country is a significant producer of uranium – seventh in the world in terms of uranium production, making it a major supplier of this critical radioactive metal, according to the World Nuclear Association (WNA).
On the surface, the predicament facing Niger, a poor, land-locked country in West Africa, may not have warranted such international scrutiny.
It is after all "just" a political crisis, commonplace for countries destroyed by the politics of western colonisation and resource scarcity.
Its president has been ousted in a coup – the fifth since the country's independence.
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But perhaps Niger's sudden place in headlines has less to do it with its internal politics as opposed to its place in geopolitics.
There are a couple of things that may have contributed to bringing Niger to the limelight, aside from the crisis itself.
The country is a significant producer of uranium – seventh in the world in terms of uranium production, making it a major supplier of this critical radioactive metal, according to the World Nuclear Association (WNA).
According to the World Bank, uranium is Niger's second most valuable export in terms of revenue.
This is followed by gold, of which two new deposits were discovered in 2014.
Both the minerals have high demand. Given that African nations have often been used by Western countries as a source of gathering mineral – forcefully or otherwise – the importance of the minerals cannot be understated.
Niger's reserves of uranium is one which is being closely watched, especially as it is the primary supply base for the European Union (EU).
The price of uranium has experienced a slight increase following last week's military coup.
Niger contributes about 5% to 7% of the global uranium supply, and it holds a significant role for the European Union.
According to the Euratom Supply Agency, companies within the European Union purchased 2905 tons of uranium from Niger in 2021.
This accounted for a little over 24% of the EU's total uranium imports, positioning Niger slightly ahead of Kazakhstan as the EU's primary source of uranium.
The highly radioactive metal, uranium, is the primary fuel for nuclear energy and is also used in cancer treatment, naval propulsion, and the development of nuclear weapons.
Reuters reported that Niger produced approximately 2,020 tonnes of uranium in 2022. This was a decrease from the 2,991 tonnes recorded in 2020, and constituted roughly 5% of the global mining yield as reported by the World Nuclear Association.
Kazakhstan, Canada, and Namibia are the world's leading producers of uranium.
Niger has a major mining facility in the northern region that is operated by Orano, a French state-owned company. The ownership by the French is another contentious issue.
This dependence by the EU and rich reserves might have become points of exploitation.
This is where Russia comes in.
The Russian Connection
Just two weeks ago, President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger was ousted from power by soldiers, leading to General Abdourahmane Tchiani assuming control.
The general cited escalating security concerns as the primary reason for this takeover.
Niger has been engaged in combating armed factions such as ISIS and Al Qaeda, with support from French and US forces.
Currently, there is substantial international pressure on the coup leaders to reinstate civilian governance.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has initiated sanctions and even raised the prospect of potential military intervention.
It's worth noting that Niger's military has garnered backing from neighbouring countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, both of which have also experienced military takeovers.
Russia has recently been getting more involved in Africa, especially through a group called Wagner, a mercenary group with close ties to Vladimir Putin.
Although Wagner also sparked a coup in Russia following what it called were military failures in the fight against Ukraine, it has become increasingly focused even on Niger.
The blueprint for Wagner's intervention isn't a pretty one.
Its last foray into Africa was in Mali back in 2022. Investigators from the UN human rights office concluded that there were strong indications that more than 500 people were killed – the majority in extrajudicial killings – by Malian troops and foreign military personnel believed to be from Wagner, a mercenary outfit run by Yevgeny Prigozhin.
It's very likely that Wagner, which has used resources from minerals in other African countries to support its activities, would want to do the same in Niger.
At the same time, it would benefit from cutting off the EU from needed uranium supplies, given its opposition to NATO and the ongoing war in Ukraine, a nation supported by many other European countries.
At the same time, there are reports that support for Russia is growing in Niger, where a strong anti-Western sentiment prevails given its history.
Even last week, many people protested in the capital city Niamey, following a protest waving Russian flags and even an attack on the French embassy.
The USA – which has two military bases in Niger – has mentioned that there is no evidence showing that the Wagner group played a role in removing President Bazoum from power. However, they also noted that the situation is still changing and uncertain.
The current sentiments in Niger stem from a bloody past, orchestrated by the French.
Scramble for Africa
In the 1885 Berlin conference, colonial powers outlined the division of Africa into spheres of influence.
France gained control of the upper valley of the Niger River.
In 1899–1900 France coordinated three expeditions—the Gentil Mission from French Congo, the Foureau-Lamy Mission from Algeria and the Voulet–Chanoine Mission from Timbuktu—with the aim of linking France's African possessions.
The Voulet-Chanoine Mission was marred by atrocities, and became notorious for pillaging, looting, raping and killing local civilians on its passage throughout southern Niger.
Captain Voulet and his men murdered all the inhabitants of the village of Birni-N'Konni in what is regarded as one of the worst massacres in French colonial history.
This was of course only one chapter. The western colonial country continued to pillage Niger, until its independence in 1960.
But even with independence, the French influence remained, alongside growing animosity.
The militant worry
Mohamed Bazoum was elected president of Niger in 2021, marking the first peaceful transfer of power in the country since it gained independence in 1960.
However, his government faced problems from extremist groups connected to the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda.
These groups are nomadic and move around in the Sahara Desert and the semi-arid Sahel region just to the south.
Because of pressure from these extremist groups, the armies in Mali and Burkina Faso, which are neighbouring countries and used to be under French rule, also took control of their governments recently.
Now, there are concerns that the new leaders in Niger might decide to move away from their Western allies and get closer to Russia.
If Niger were to follow suit, it would be the third country in the region to turn to Moscow after a military coup, following Burkina Faso and Mali.
But as experts put it, what is to happen remains to be seen. For now, given the complexity of the crisis and the numerous international actors involved, Niger's political manoeuvre will not escape scrutiny any time soon.
