Fitch cuts Israel's credit rating to 'A' as Middle East tensions rise

Credit ratings agency Fitch downgraded Israel's credit rating to "A" from "A-plus" on Monday, citing worsening geopolitical risks as the war in Gaza drags on, and kept the rating outlook negative, meaning a further downgrade is possible.

Israel's war on Gaza, triggered by the Islamist group Hamas-led cross-border attack on Oct. 7, has cost thousands of lives and unfolded into a humanitarian crisis.

"In our view, the conflict in Gaza could last well into 2025 and there are risks of it broadening to other fronts," the ratings agency said in a statement.

"The downgrade following the war and the geopolitical risks it creates is natural," Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on X.

Fears that the conflict in Gaza could turn into a broader Middle East war have escalated after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and top Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut.

Israel's shekel fell as much as 1.7% against the dollar on Monday and stocks ended over 1% lower in Tel Aviv as investors fret over a possible attack on Israel.

Heightened tensions between Israel and Iran and its allies could imply significant additional military spending, destruction of infrastructure and damage to economic activity and investment, Fitch said.

The ratings agency expects the Israeli government to permanently increase military spending by close to 1.5% of GDP versus pre-war levels as the country strengthens its border defences. 

"Public finances have been hit and we project a budget deficit of 7.8% of GDP in 2024 and debt to remain above to 70% of GDP in the medium term," Fitch said. It forecasts the country's debt will remain on an upward trend beyond 2025 if higher military spending and economic uncertainties continue.