Fishy math: Official data say fish production up, farmers say down

While the annual report from the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock claims a 1.56 lakh tonne year-on-year increase in fish production in the last fiscal, contrasting narratives emerge from fish farmers across the country.

Official figures show production reached 49.15 lakh tonnes in FY23 compared to 47.59 lakh tonnes in FY22. 

This increase in yield was primarily attributed to the thriving fish enclosures. In FY22, pisciculture was responsible for supplying 57.39% of the fish.

Director General of Fisheries Department Mahbubul Haque told TBS, "The production data we present in our report is rigorously verified through a multi-layered process involving local and international entities, leaving no room for error."

However, ground reports paint a contrasting picture with many small and large fish farmers facing significant challenges in the last two years, leading to low production and even closures of farms.

The impact of the pandemic is cited as a major factor by farmers, which resulted in capital losses and disrupted supply chains, forcing many farmers to reduce or stop production. The ensuing Russia-Ukraine war further exacerbated their struggles by causing a massive 66% increase in feed prices, reaching Tk70 per kg.

This double whammy of economic hardship coupled with rising production costs has significantly eroded profit margins, leaving many farmers unable to sustain their businesses. 

Abu Noman, a farmer from Trishal upazila in Mymensingh, cultivates a variety of fish (Pangas, Rui, Katla and Pabda) in 30 enclosures.

Before the pandemic, Noman thrived as a fish farmer, cultivating a remarkable 1,200 tonnes of fish annually. However, the pandemic's impact and the subsequent rise in production costs severely limited his profits in FY21, forcing him to reduce production to 800 tonnes for the following two years.

"The cost of production has skyrocketed in the past two years, completely eroding my fish farming profits. If it falls below the break-even point, I risk losing crores of taka in investments. This has forced me to significantly reduce production," he told The Business Standard.

Tilapia production, usually exceeding four lakh tonnes per annum, has declined by 30-40% in the past two years.

ABM Shamsul Alam Badal, the general secretary of the Bangladesh Tilapia Foundation and owner of Agro 3 Fish Hatchery and Culture Firm, told TBS that numerous farmers have ceased Tilapia production altogether, while others are operating at a limited scale.

"Many farmers who purchased fish feed on credit faced losses from fish farming and subsequently defaulted on their payments. This has led feed manufacturers to stop extending credit, leaving many farmers unable to purchase feed due to a lack of capital," he said.

"The production deficit created by farmers withdrawing from or scaling back their fish farming activities is seemingly not reflected in the ministry's annual report," Shamsul Alam added.

Discrepancies in shrimp data 

Industry stakeholders also question the government's reported 2.61 lakh tonnes shrimp production in FY23, suggesting it is significantly inflated.

Shrimp constitutes a significant portion of Bangladesh's total fish production. The Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock's annual report for FY23 cites a production figure of 2.61 lakh tonnes; however, stakeholders in the shrimp industry raise concerns about discrepancies between this data and their on-the-ground observations.

The discrepancy could also be seen in official documents. A March document from the Ministry of Fisheries to the Department of Fisheries, titled "Commercial Vannamei Farming in Bangladesh," cited a figure of 72,809 tonnes for Bagda shrimp production, which industry stakeholders find questionable.

According to farmers and shrimp exporters, only Bagda and Golda shrimp are cultivated on a significant scale in Bangladesh, with negligible production of Venami (white leg shrimp). 

They estimate Golda production to be no more than one-third of Bagda's 72,809 tonnes, leading to a total shrimp production closer to 1 lakh tonnes. However, government data reports a much higher figure of 2.5 lakh tonnes.

A shrimp exporter and member of the Bangladesh Frozen Foods Exporters Association (BFFEA), who wished to remain anonymous, told TBS, "Our shrimp production does not exceed 100,000 tonnes. The reported figure of over 2.5 lakh tonnes is inaccurate."

Meanwhile, fish prices remain high in the market. Aside from low production, sector insiders attribute the high prices to several other factors, including irregular rainfall patterns and delayed floods. This led to a decline in fish collection from rivers and haors (large water bodies). Besides, fish production in ponds of drought-prone areas fell below expectations.

Responding to concerns about high fish prices, Fisheries Department DG Mahbubul Haque said that price fluctuations do not necessarily indicate a decline in overall production. 

He acknowledged some challenges faced by farmers but emphasised the lack of evidence suggesting a significant production drop.