From friend to foe: What caused the Iran-Pakistan conflict?
While Iran and Pakistan have shared warm relations historically, the current conflict is as much about internal struggles as it is about external tensions
Pakistan's military today carried out targeted strikes in Iran after Tehran launched similar attacks the day before, in an escalation of tensions.
Both countries have said the strikes were carried out against militant hideouts.
The tit-for-tat response from one nuclear-armed country and another researching warheads is the most significant escalation between the two neighbours who have had testy relations in the past.
Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel
The strikes come at a time of rising turmoil in the Middle East over the war between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas, which has been raging for more than 100 days.
While Iran and Pakistan have shared warm relations historically, there have been some tensions over the years.
Foes were friends once
Iran and Pakistan established relations on 14 August 1947, the day of the independence of Pakistan, when Iran became the first country to offer recognition.
Following the Iranian Revolution (1978–1979), which overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty, Pakistan recognised the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Pakistan is one of the few countries where Iranian influence is positively received as per polls conducted by the Pew Research Center.
A very high proportion of Pakistanis view their western neighbour positively, polls have consistently shown.
Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei has also called for the sympathy, assistance, and cooperation of all Muslim nations, including Pakistan.
Warming up to each other and the West during the Cold War
During the Cold War (1945–1991), both countries were part of the Western Bloc against the Eastern Bloc.
They were founding members of the anti-communist alliance CENTO.
Standing by in separation
Iran aided Pakistan in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 and Indo-Pakistani War of 1971.
Both countries shared a common animosity towards Baloch separatists and cooperated in the 1970s Balochistan operation.
Mingling with the Mujahideen and tackling the Taliban
During the Soviet–Afghan War (1979–1989), Iran backed the Pakistan-funded Afghan Mujahideen and Pakistan supported Iran in the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988).
Pakistan's support for the Taliban in the Third Afghan Civil War (1992–1996) became a problem for Iran, which opposed a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan at the time.
In the ensuing Fourth Afghan Civil War (1996–2001), Iran backed the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance. Following the 9/11 attacks, Iran and Pakistan joined the war on terror.
After the US's completed withdrawal of its troops and the Taliban's return to power in the 2020s, Pakistan has stepped up cooperation with Iran to promote peace and stability in Afghanistan, with both sides arguing that it should not be used for geopolitical rivalry.
Money and mediations
Pakistan has often served as a mediator in the Iran–-Saudi Arabia proxy conflict.
Iran has also expressed an interest in joining the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor as part of the larger Belt and Road Initiative.
Both sides have continued to cooperate economically where possible and are forming alliances in a number of areas of mutual interest, such as fighting the drug trade along their border and combating the insurgency in the Balochistan region.
Bad blood on the border
Whispers of discord have lingered between the two countries as the porous border became a conduit for unrest - accusations of harbouring separatist groups stoked the flames.
The events of January 2024 were not born in a vacuum; they are the culmination of years of simmering tensions and a recent escalation in tit-for-tat accusations.
Iran accused Pakistan of harbouring Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni militant group responsible for attacks on Iranian soil.
Pakistan countered with similar claims, pointing to Iranian support for Baloch separatists within its borders.
The conflict on 18 January has ignited a tinderbox, a stark reminder of the fragility of their uneasy coexistence.
Seven non-Iranians were killed in the explosions, which hit in two locations around Iran's border city of Saravan.
Pakistan's response came after Iran launched strikes against Jaish al-Adl, a separatist group based in Pakistan's Balochistan province, bordering Iran.
Islamabad has said the attack killed two children and injured three others.
Three women, and four children were killed in the Pakistani strike on Iran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian phoned his Pakistani counterpart on 17 January in an apparent move to ease tension between the neighbours even as Islamabad insisted it had the right to respond to the "illegal act" by Tehran.
Pakistan downgraded its diplomatic ties by recalling its envoy from Tehran and asking the Iranian ambassador not to return to Islamabad.
Jaish al-Adl is designated as a foreign terrorist organisation by the US and the Sunni militant group operates along predominantly Shiite Iran's porous border with Pakistan.
It has launched multiple attacks on Iranian security forces, most recently a December assault on a police station that killed 11 people.
Pakistan became the second of Iran's neighbours to react to an attack by the country on its territory.
Earlier 16 January, Iraq criticised an Iranian missile hit on an alleged Israeli spy base in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Making bed on the border and the blanket of geopolitics
Geopolitics makes the relationship between Pakistan and Iran more complex.
Despite strained ties with the West, particularly the United States, Iran has a key role in the Middle East.
On the other hand, Pakistan continues to maintain strategic alliances with the US and Saudi Arabia, which has occasionally resulted in differences in their stances on regional and international matters.
The geopolitical situation is made more intriguing by the triangular interactions between Iran, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have always had close connections, whereas Iran sees Saudi Arabia as a foe in the region.
It puts Pakistan in a difficult balancing act as it tries to maintain close ties with Saudi Arabia without upsetting Iran.
Given the common border with Afghanistan and the security issues it poses for both neighbours, Pakistan and Iran's relations with the Taliban-ruled country are greatly influenced by its instability.
Diplomatic dexterity and wise decision-making are paramount for Iran and Pakistan to navigate this delicate triangle in order to prevent tensions from rising and harming regional security.
Fighting financially: Pakistan's Arab allies to invest $50 billion in 5 years, Iran has none
In September of last year, Pakistan said that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) would invest $25 billion each in his cash-strapped country within five years.
Sectors such as mines and minerals, agriculture, defence production and information technology would receive the investment, the Pak government said.
The Saudi and UAE investments are part of a new strategy for economic revival to increase foreign direct investment in Pakistan.
Pakistan is scrambling to deal with a critical balance of payments crisis.
The country of about 241 million people needs billions of dollars in foreign exchange to repay international debts and bridge its trade deficit in the current financial year.
Islamabad is implementing long-delayed economic reforms in line with IMF requirements, leading to a historic increase in energy prices when inflation is already hovering at around 29%.
The tough reforms have triggered almost daily nationwide protests, bloated electricity bills and soaring fuel prices.
Meanwhile, Iran is already struggling economically with all the sanctions imposed on the country.
More than meets the eye
But amidst the din of military manoeuvres and diplomatic barbs, a more nuanced narrative unfolds.
This conflict is as much about internal struggles as it is about external tensions.
Both Iran and Pakistan are grappling with their own demons - Iran, reeling under the weight of sanctions and domestic strife, seeks to consolidate its power and project strength; Pakistan, battling internal insurgencies and economic woes, strives to assert its strategic relevance.
The spectre of great power rivalry further complicates the equation.
Iran's ties to Russia and China counterbalance Pakistan's close alliance with the United States and Saudi Arabia, transforming the regional equation into a complex geopolitical chessboard.
The immediate future remains shrouded in uncertainty.
What lies ahead?
While an all-out war seems an unlikely scenario, the potential for further skirmishes and escalations casts a dark shadow over the region.
The path forward requires delicate diplomacy, trust-building measures, and a willingness to address the root causes of conflict.
