Revised growth target difficult to achieve
'We do not know whether there has been any positive growth in half of the year'
Various signs that have been seen in exports, imports, load shedding, dollar crisis, natural calamities in the first six months indicate that it will be very difficult to achieve the revised target. Last year, the growth was 7.25%, which will come down this year due to various crises. By lowering the target, the crisis in the economy is somewhat acknowledged.
How can production be continued if we cannot import amid the dollar crisis? There should be oil, electricity and other intermediate inputs. If not, where will the growth come from?
The first half of the financial year has gone through various crises – the industrial production has been disrupted due to the gas crisis, production in all the sectors has decreased due to the energy crisis and drought has reduced agricultural production. Moreover, non-crop agricultural production has decreased because of load shedding.
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We do not know whether there has been any positive growth in half of the year.
Now, as the process of increasing the price of electricity has started, there will be pressure in the next summer. The price of goods in the world market is slightly decreasing.
It will be difficult to overcome the deficit in the first half of the fiscal year to achieve big growth for the rest of the year.
Because during the crisis some counter inflationary measures will be needed, and there are some such measures announced by the government. Such inflationary control measures hampered growth.
In the end, I will say, if there is an environment of more than 6% growth in an economy, why should forbearance be increased? Are the businessmen here saying that they cannot afford to pay the debt?
Where is the profit going if there is a big growth? Despite the inflation in the last few months, there was an increase in the profits of traders.
Traders are seeking loan forbearance with one year of effectiveness as they cannot pay. Bangladesh Bank also says that traders are unable to pay. The growth data does not match the picture of the country's financial sector at all.
Dr Zahid Hussain is the former lead economist at the World Bank Dhaka office.
TBS Reporter Jahidul Islam sopke to Dr Zahid Hussain
