Predicting next three years is tough

The real estate sector, along with its linkage industries, contributes 12–13% of the GDP in Bangladesh, and it is yet to cater to the entire growing demand for accommodations, especially in megacities.

More than six lakh people enter the capital afresh every year, and the city needs 1.2 lakh new apartments to offer them accommodation.

The city gets only 31,500 flats a year on average, with real estate companies delivering 17,000 and the rest being built by individual homebuilders.

An apartment sold today will be delivered 30-36 months later, and any cost escalations in the meantime will be loaded into the builder's cost.

Realtors had never had such difficulty forecasting their costs for the next three years. 

Because of the consistent trend over the last few decades, real estate firms were well-positioned to estimate construction costs, which is no longer the case.

Since the pandemic, construction material prices have surged too much, unforeseeably, and now the forex and other crises have made the situation even tougher.

The dollar austerity that makes sense should be fairly and effectively embraced.

India once suffered declining forex reserves but came back even stronger with an incentive scheme for non-resident Indian (NRI) remittances and a gold deposit programme. We have instruments to attract non-resident Bangladeshi (NRB) dollars. But we need meaningful incentives for NRBs alongside campaigns for their awareness in this regard.

Unnecessary imports for the sake of luxury also should be restricted.

Ceramic products should not be imported at all, as the local manufacturers are capable enough to cater to the entire market in a competitive manner.

Instead of making businesses' lives harder, the government should dig deeper into the good ventures' detailed activities and see if the declarations by the firms are worth believing or not.

The way the macroeconomic crisis is being handled nowadays also makes businesses' lives harder. For instance, a factory is waiting for raw material after all its machines are installed, but the lack of a letter of credit (LC) facility is only delaying its production, and no one gains from it.

We find no answer to the question of who would make things smoother for good businesses.

Discipline across sectors seems to be the most needed thing right now to tackle the wrongdoers and encourage the right people and companies.

Countries are tackling the same macroeconomic challenges, and market-based forex and other rates will help them find market-based solutions at some point.

If the central bank lets the taka float freely against the dollar, there may be some turbulence, but the market will absorb it and correct everything later.

The taka's depreciation will allow people and businesses to forecast economic things.  

Engineer Kutubuddin Ahmed, Chairman, Sheltech Group