Rohingya repatriation: Is a tripartite solution actually possible?

Recently, a national daily, citing anonymous sources, reported that the Chinese special envoy for Asian Affairs Deng Xijun during his visit to Dhaka told Bangladesh authorities that Myanmar had signalled their willingness to take back the Rohingyas. They would take them back to their own villages in North Maungdaw and nearby places instead of any camps or model villages, which Myanmar had proposed earlier.

The Chinese special envoy visited Myanmar before coming to Bangladesh. He had separate meetings with Foreign Minister Dr AK Abdul Momen and Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen in Dhaka. The foreign minister did not confirm to the daily that the Chinese envoy actually said it. 

When TBS reached out to concerned foreign ministry officials, one of them said he saw no possibility of the repatriation happening anytime soon, and another, seeking anonymity, gave a diplomatic answer saying, "If the report was baseless we would protest."

Rohingyas have always maintained that they are against returning to camps set up in Myanmar. Therefore, the report is a breath of fresh air amid the six-year-long stalemate since the latest Rohingya influx in Bangladesh in 2017.

Or, is it?

China has been mediating the Bangladesh-Myanmar bilateral discussions since the beginning. At the same time, it kept opposing and blocking UN resolutions and statements concerning the Rohingya crisis. 

While experts on the field, including foreign ministry officials with experience in dealing with the Myanmar authorities, agree that China-mediated negotiations have so far failed to produce any tangible outcome, opinions on the future of Rohingya repatriation are divided.

"We have a tripartite mechanism in which the Chinese have always been proactive. Chinese high officials' visit is an important indicator that the Chinese government is very much willing to see that repatriation takes place, in which they're one of the critical actors," Shahab Enam Khan, a professor at the Department of International Relations, Jahangirnagar University told The Business Standard. 

"Now the problem is not with the Chinese initiative or Bangladesh's lack of effort in sending the Rohingyas back. There are two major problems in this whole situation. The first one is whether the Rohingyas are comfortable and confident to go back. That has not been addressed adequately in this tripartite initiative," he said. 

"Furthermore, even if that happens, how will Bangladesh get a guarantee that these people will actually be sent back to their villages, to the local domicile?" Professor Khan said.

He mentioned Western powers are also heavily involved in supporting the Rohingyas in Bangladesh. As a result, Bangladesh cannot isolate itself from the Western-led community when it comes to repatriation or rehabilitation of the refugees it is hosting.

"On the other hand, the Chinese are the only tripartite mechanism that is practically visible. As a result, Bangladesh has no other choice, at least for now, in the absence of other tripartite initiatives or the multilateral initiative for repatriation, but to comply with the Chinese proposals," the professor continued.

He opined we should not be hopeless about the resolution of the refugee crisis because the Rohingyas themselves want to return, provided there is a favourable environment. 

"And that is where both the Chinese initiative and the Western initiative should work together. It should not be seen in isolation. The onus is on the international community to really come up with a tangible solution for the repatriation of the Rohingyas, as the Chinese have already proposed," said Professor Khan.

"As long as they don't, the Chinese option remains the only practically feasible option," the professor concluded.

Not everyone seemed as convinced about repatriation of Rohingya refugees though. Dr Nasir Uddin, a refugee expert and professor at the Department of Anthropology, Chittagong University, pointed out that the discussions and visits between the Bangladesh and Myanmar teams are not working, and he doesn't see the possibility of it working in the future.

"Rohingyas demand that they be returned to their own villages, but the villages have no sign of life left, they have been bulldozed to the ground," he said.

"Bangladesh has taken repatriation as the only solution to the Rohingya problem, and I appreciate it. For this to happen, Chinese support in convincing the Myanmar government is of paramount importance. 

"However, to me, we cannot rely only on Chinese assurances/commitments on this. Also, instead of focusing solely on repatriation, Bangladesh should take forward the option of third-country resettlement," the expert said.

Even if 5,000 Rohingyas are repatriated every year, it will take more than 200 years for one million refugees to return to Myanmar, he pointed out. 

The negotiation must be multilateral in nature, he opined, adding that we won't go far with bilateral negotiations with Myanmar.

"The Rohingya issue is not a local or regional issue, it is an international issue because global geopolitics plays a determinant factor behind whose role would be what in the issue," the professor said. "For example, how much pressure the US will exert on Myanmar depends on how much the latter will lean towards China as a result. China would be quite happy if the US did that."

Ashraful Haque. Sketch: TBS

The professor proposes a solution where the international community duly compensates Bangladesh, and the latter trains Rohingyas with the necessary skills and prepares them to be resettled to third countries.

"Refugee is not a crisis of any particular country, it's a global one. Therefore, other countries should share the burden," Professor Nasir Uddin said.