Wails of a war weary world
As 2024 begins, the impact of armed conflicts continues to result in geopolitical uncertainties and affect global markets, trade, and diplomatic relations among nations
"Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime"
- Ernest Hemingway
While war remains the same as it has always been – all about destruction – its implications in modern times are felt globally more than ever before.
The year 2023 saw the long on-going conflict between Hamas and Israel escalate into a full-on war from October; at the same time, Russia's invasion of Ukraine also crossed into its second year.
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The two conflicts have been pivotal geopolitical crises in recent times - bearing significant ramifications not only regionally but also globally.
As 2024 begins, the impact of these two major wars will carry onto the New Year since these conflicts have been fraught with complexities, historical contexts, geopolitical interests, and humanitarian concerns - each with its unique dynamics and implications.
Europe's war, everyone's headache
The Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated in 2022, with tensions mounting over Ukraine's sovereignty, Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the ongoing support of separatist movements in eastern Ukraine.
The situation was characterised by military build-ups, border skirmishes, and heightened diplomatic strains.
Intensified geopolitical divisions persist and are very likely to continue between Western powers supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and Russia seeking to maintain influence in the region.
Concerns have been raised about NATO's role, energy security, and European stability.
Meanwhile, the West has imposed sanctions on Russia, impacting both economies.
Not just Russia and Ukraine, economic repercussions due to sanctions, trade disruptions, and increased military expenditures have affected other countries – even the ones who are not in any way part of it.
The conflict took a toll on civilians, infrastructure, and economies, exacerbating social and economic challenges.
Conflicts in Middle-East: Going on forever
The Middle East has been riddled with armed conflicts as long as memory serves.
From the proxy war being played through the Syrian civil war to the Israeli and Saudi Arabia-led atrocities in Palestine and Yemen respectively – the region is the epicentre of some of the longest armed conflicts in modern history.
The Israel-Hamas conflict has been a longstanding issue centred on territorial disputes, security concerns, and historical grievances.
In 2022, this conflict saw heightened violence and military exchanges between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
But it further escalated to a new level on 7 October of 2023.
International community urged both sides to de-escalate and sought peace negotiations.
However, the situation remained tense and complex.
A cyclical pattern of violence and tentative ceasefire agreements have repeated- only to be broken and likely so will be recurring in 2024, with both sides committed to sustained aggression.
Civilians in Gaza faced severe humanitarian challenges due to the destruction of infrastructure by Israeli forces, displacement, and loss of life.
Beyond the humanitarian crisis, the escalated conflict strained regional stability and had broader implications for Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Without a fundamental shift in approach, the conflict might remain in a cycle of sporadic violence and temporary ceasefires. Increased international pressure for negotiations might persist, aiming for a lasting resolution.
In geopolitics and socioeconomic terms, both conflicts carry significant implications for regional stability, global relations, and the well-being of affected populations.
However, actual outcomes in 2024 depend on a multitude of factors, including diplomatic efforts, geopolitical shifts, and the willingness of involved parties to seek lasting solutions.
Syria's Civil War, ongoing since 2011, has led to devastating humanitarian consequences.
Involvement of various regional and international actors has made it complex and prolonged.
Dragging on to its 13th year, the situation might continue to exacerbate, impacting neighboring countries and the broader Middle East region.
The reconstruction efforts and addressing the refugee crisis remain significant challenges.
Meanwhile, the Yemeni conflict involving multiple factions and regional powers has resulted in an also dire humanitarian crisis.
Despite intermittent peace talks, the situation remains fragile, posing risks of continued violence, food insecurity, and the spread of diseases.
The prospects for a lasting resolution in 2024 might depend on diplomatic efforts and international pressure on involved parties.
Afghanistan: Alone and agitated
After the withdrawal of US forces in 2021, Afghanistan saw a rapid Taliban resurgence, raising concerns about human rights, instability, and potential threats to regional security.
Despite the Taliban's claims, its governance, international recognition, and efforts to contain terrorism will significantly shape Afghanistan's trajectory in 2024.
So far, while the Taliban has stuck to its hyper-traditionalist values, it has shun away from direct provocation of any other country.
In a sense, it has done little to disrupt regional or global peace. Whether that holds or not remains to be seen.
Africa's agony is always ignored
Africa has always been ignored, or so it seems.
Ethiopia's internal conflict, notably in the Tigray region, have caused a severe humanitarian crisis and raised concerns about Ethiopia's stability.
The resolution of these conflicts and the government's efforts to address ethnic tensions and promote national unity will be crucial in shaping Ethiopia's future in the coming year.
Impact of these conflicts on the global landscape in 2024 will likely be multifaceted.
Wails of a war weary world
These continued conflicts exacerbate humanitarian crises - causing displacement, food shortages, and health emergencies.
International aid and diplomatic interventions will play a crucial role in mitigating these crises.
Regional tensions and conflicts could result in geopolitical uncertainties, affecting global markets, trade, and diplomatic relations among nations.
Persisting conflicts often serve as breeding grounds for extremism, terrorism, and transnational crime, posing security threats beyond the conflict zones.
Instability in conflict zones can disrupt economic activities, impacting trade routes, resource availability, and regional economies.
The resolution of these conflicts demands concerted diplomatic efforts, multilateral cooperation, and a commitment to peacebuilding and conflict resolution.
A focus on humanitarian aid, sustainable development, and inclusive governance remains pivotal for a more stable and peaceful future globally in 2024 and beyond.
The author is a journalist
