Businesses, bankers, economists optimistic about future as CA announces election timeline
'This announcement will undoubtedly boost business confidence by signalling that the country is progressing towards a democratic process'
Following the announcement of a timeline for the next election by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus – slated for the end of 2025 or early 2026 – business leaders and economists expressed optimism over the decision.
Many have said the timeline, which offers much-needed clarity about the future, will encourage investment and build business confidence.
However, most have also urged the interim government to continue its reform efforts and provide necessary recommendations for the democratically elected government to follow.
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This is not a roadmap, but it is a timeline. And it will bring relief for people. It will decrease uncertainty.
Speaking to The Business Standard, Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the announcement would bring relief. "This is not a roadmap, but a timeline, and it will bring relief to people by reducing uncertainty," he said.
He also said the interim government would remain in place for a year, continuing its reforms. "Some reforms will be completed, which will bring relief to the people. I believe this will also have a positive impact on the market," he added.
'Democratically-elected govt can foster good business environment'
Zaved Akhtar, chairman and managing director of Unilever Bangladesh and president of the Foreign Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), said, "A democratically-elected government can foster a good business and investment environment in Bangladesh by implementing some of the reforms suggested by the interim government."
A democratically-elected political government can foster a good business and investment environment in Bangladesh by implementing some of the reforms recommended by the interim government.
He added that the FICCI is hoping for noticeable improvements in the policies, processes and systems of the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority, National Board of Revenue and Bangladesh Bank.
"These changes, we believe, can yield long-term benefits and have a significant impact on creating a positive investment climate in Bangladesh. It will also help businesses gain confidence in long-term investment and trade policies."
'Will bring much-needed clarity'
The former senior vice president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, Abdullah Hil Rakib, said the CA's announcement on holding national elections by the end of 2025 or early 2026 brings much-needed clarity and is a positive sign for the business community.
This announcement demonstrates our commitment to a democratic process.
"This is particularly important for those operating in international markets, as buyers often inquire about political stability. This announcement demonstrates our commitment to a democratic process, which will help build confidence among international partners," he said.
Rakib also mentioned that businesses faced numerous questions regarding human rights and governance during past regimes.
However, this new development signals a shift toward stability, encouraging global buyers to strengthen their partnerships with Bangladesh.
'Will undoubtedly boost business confidence'
Former Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Shams Mahmud said, "This announcement will undoubtedly boost business confidence by signalling that the country is progressing towards a democratic process."
This is a welcome development which from the business sector is very important as the new government will oversee the process of LDC graduation.
Additionally, he suggested that the interim government should prioritise maintaining law and order to ensure peaceful national elections and uphold stability, which is essential for sustaining economic activities.
"We sincerely hope that the government undertakes steps for a free and fair election process. This is a welcome development which from the business sector is very important as the new government will oversee the process of LDC graduation," he said.
He also said an interim government lacked the authority to implement measures which were best handled by a democratically-elected government.
He also expressed the hope that a new government will implement recommendations from the reform committees and complete the reform processes initiated by the current government, as these freedoms were earned through the sacrifices of many citizens and students.
'Clarity will help accelerate business decisions'
Premier Cement Mills Managing Director Amirul Haque said the CA made a prudent announcement which will energise people who are waiting for both reforms and a transition to the rule of elected government.
The clarity will now help accelerate business decisions
So many business decisions have been halted amid a lack of clear political direction. The clarity will now help accelerate business decisions, he said.
"The Interim government took charge in an emergent situation, but a political government with people's mandate can do a lot more in boosting business confidence," he said.
'Default loan recovery, cash demand may rise'
Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank, said the election announcement would have an impact on the banking sector.
"We can see an improvement in the figures of defaulted loan recovery and residual loan. We, however, do not yet know whether the Election Commission will change any rules regarding the loan situation of a candidate to participate in the election.
"If the previous rules remain or a new one is made, many may have to adjust their loans to run for election. As a result, there is a possibility of some defaulted loans being recovered."
I think the demand for cash may increase during the election
Commenting on the possibility that the amount of money outside the bank may increase due to the polls, the seasoned banker said, "Usually, there are more cash transactions during elections. Cash is used more than bank transactions during election campaigns or other occasions. Overall, I think the demand for cash may increase during the election."
Meanwhile, investors, too, may get a boost through the election announcement.
'Foreign fund managers will be attracted'
DSE Brokers Association President Saiful Islam said business leaders and investors feared the prevailing uncertainty.
The reform and election timeline announced will help investors plan with predictability and act confidently.
Amid the recent political situation, they became conservative, he said.
The reform and election timeline announced will help investors plan with predictability and act confidently.
Foreign fund managers, especially most of the Western ones, need a democratic environment to invest in a stock market as part of their compliance. The country led by an unelected government was not attracting them at all, he said, adding that the situation would change now.
'Must strengthen economy before polls'
Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director of Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM), believes the need of the day is to ensure the economy is strengthened first.
Election is not the only solution; the solution is strengthening the economy.
"The economy is going through various crises right now. There's at least one year left before the national election is held, in line with what the chief adviser has said. Whenever the election takes place, the economic weaknesses must be overcome first."
He said the unusually high inflation rate must be reined in.
"Growth, investment, and job creation are currently stagnant – they need to be addressed. Elections always affect the economy. But if the economy is not strengthened before the polls, holding the election will not solve the economic problems," he said.
He said irrespective of when the elections take place, the economy needed to be revitalised, as there was no alternative to that.
"Election is not the only solution; the solution is strengthening the economy," he said.
"As its fundamental responsibility, the interim government is carrying out various reforms. People will suffer more if the reforms lead to no positive results."
'Everyone across the construction industry will be motivated to invest'
With clarity of the future, psychologically also people will feel happy and satisfied.
BSRM MD Aameir Alihussain said, "With a clear election schedule, the nation as a whole knows where we are heading. The uncertainties will go away and generally there will be a very positive environment.
"This will impact the economy positively."
He also said, "As a nation, we want to be back on track for economic growth and development which has taken a pause.
He was optimistic that with this move everyone across the industry will be motivated to invest expecting stable times ahead. With clarity of the future, psychologically also people will feel happy and satisfied, he added.
'Clearer political roadmap will help confident decision-making'
Azam J Chowdhury, MD of MJL Bangladesh, said companies need to continue investing, as investment is now slow. And a clearer political roadmap will help confident decision making within companies, he added.
Thriving sectors need better direction and policy support from the interim government.
Addressing companies he said, "In a growing economy, demand for your products will keep rising. Capacity expansion today to profitably cater to future demands is what keeps you ahead."
He also expects the interim government to accomplish reforms to increase ease of doing business and boost investment.
Thriving sectors need better direction and policy support from the interim government, he added.
'There is little possibility of improvement in before elections'
AMMS Logistics Managing Director and Bangladesh Shipping Agents Association Vice-Chairman Mohammed Shafiqul Alam Jewel said, the verbal roadmap announced by the interim government's chief adviser regarding the elections certainly carries a positive message for businesses.
He said, "Business is now at a standstill due to various negative activities including unlimited corruption in the banking sector, money laundering among others. None of the institutions involved in corruption and currency laundering are now active in the country. Now only those who are doing business according to the rules and regulations are involved in business. As a result, a kind of vacuum has been created.
"During the interim period, the import volume is very low due to the decrease in infrastructure development, dollar crisis, wars in various countries, and various global crises. There is little possibility of much improvement in business in all sectors, including the shipping sector, before the parliamentary elections.
The elected government will actually depend on their [interim govt] policies to determine whether the trade situation will improve or deteriorate.
He also said if the VAT rate is brought down to single digits and the import duty is further reduced, the price of goods will come down. If the government provides more policy support in this regard, the purchasing power of consumers will increase.
'Democratic government taking charge will likely lead to improvements across many sectors'
Former Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) president Rizwan Rahman welcomed the government's announcement.
He, however, said, "The government should announce a specific date or schedule for the elections so businesses can plan accordingly for the election year.
"In Bangladesh, we have generally observed that business activities experience some disruptions during election periods. Considering this, it is important for us to prepare in advance."
A democratic government taking charge will likely lead to improvements across many sectors automatically
Noting that Bangladesh is a democratic country and it is the people's right to choose their leaders, he said, "The interim government has committed to returning the country to its people, and it should fulfil that commitment as soon as possible, which will be in everyone's best interest.
"Currently, there is confusion among many, as several departments are either not functioning properly or not operating at the expected pace. A democratic government taking charge will likely lead to improvements across many sectors automatically.
"CA's announcement on election roadmap created possibility for traders to return to investment"
Sarwar Alamgir, chairman of Halda Group, a garment exporter, said, "The apparel industry has been going through a very delicate situation for the last three years due to the dollar crisis, gas-electricity crisis, electoral instability and the July revolution."
Now, the Bangladesh Bank and related organisations and administrations have to play an important role
"Entrepreneurs still do not think that the business environment has been restored even during the interim government. But, the chief adviser's announcement on the roadmap for the election today has created the possibility for traders to return to investment. Now, the Bangladesh Bank and related organisations and administrations have to play an important role."
'Will take another six months to fully get a grip on the situation'
Amir Hossain Sohel, managing director of PHP Float Glass Industries Ltd, expects that the CA's announcement on elections will improve the negative situation in the country's industry, trade and investment sectors.
Explaining the situation, he said, "The sales of my glass factory last year around this time was 5,000 tonnes. Last month it was 2,200 tonnes and 800 tonnes in the first 15 days till yesterday of this month. The fixed monthly operating cost of our factory is Tk25 crore. A minimum of 3,000 to 3,500 tonnes of glass production is needed to cover this cost. It needs to be done. We want the situation to improve."
Since the government has given the official estimation about the election, we hope the situation will improve
Stating that it will take another six months to fully get a grip on the situation, he said, "Many have investment in the pipeline. Everyone is monitoring the situation. We need people's purchasing power [to increase]. Since the government has given the official estimation about the election, we hope the situation will improve."
He also said the industry needs electricity, gas and port facility support to make significant contribution to the country's economy.
