Cyclone Mocha turns further towards Bangladesh; landfall likely by Sunday evening
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Mocha turned further towards Bangladesh between 12am and 4am on Saturday (13 May), said Meteorologist Mostofa Kamal Polash, a PhD researcher on meteorology and climate at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada.
The cyclone has slightly changed its direction towards the coast of Khulna and Barisal divisions, according to his forecast.
It is likely to intensify further, move in a north-northwesterly direction and cross Cox's Bazar-Myanmar's north coast by 6pm on Sunday (14 May), a Met office bulletin published today says.
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"There is a 99% chance that the cyclone will pass through Saint Martins Island and Cox's Bazar between 7am and 3pm on 14 May (Sunday)," the meteorologist said.
"At the time, its maximum sustained wind speed could be 185-200km per hour."
He also warned, "Char areas of Noakhali and Bhola may face the threat of 10-15 feet-high tides due to the impact of the cyclone."
Today at 11am, the maximum sustained wind speed was 259km per hour with an average speed of 212km, which is projected to gain pace as the day progresses.
Meanwhile, the height of the wave surrounding the centre of the storm was around 49ft, Meteorologist Mostofa Kamal noted.
According to a Met office bulletin, the severe cyclonic storm Mocha has moved north-northeastwards at 15.4N latitude and 89.1E longitude.
In the bulletin released at 6am Saturday, the cyclone was 815km south-southwest from the Chattogram seaport, 745km south-southwest from the Cox's Bazar seaport, 785km south-southwest from the Mongla seaport and 745km south-southwest from the Payra seaport.
It is likely to cross Cox's Bazar-Myanmar's north coast between 6am to 6pm on Sunday (14 May).
Coastal areas of the Chattogram and Borishal divisions might start experiencing the peripheral effects of the very severe cyclone from tonight (13 May), the bulletin added.
Under the effect of cyclone Mocha, Chattogram, Sylhet and Barishal divisions are likely to experience heavy (44-88 mm) to very heavy rainfall (89 mm). Due to very heavy rainfalls, landslides may occur at places over the hilly regions of Cox's Bazar, Bandarban, Rangamati, Khagrachari and Chattogram.
Meanwhile, the maritime ports of Chattogram, Cox's Bazar, and Payra have been advised to hoist great danger signal 8 as Cyclone Mocha intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm over the southeastern Bay of Bengal and its adjacent areas on Friday (12 May). Besides, Mongla seaport has been asked to show a local warning signal 4.
Coastal districts of Cox's Bazar, Chattogram, Feni, Noakhali, Lakshmipur, Chandpur, Barishal, Bhola, Patuakhali, Jhalkathi, Pirojpur, Barguna, and their nearby islands and chars will also be under great danger signal 8.
In a bulletin released at 9pm Friday, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department has advised all fishing boats and trawlers in the northern Bay of Bengal to seek shelter immediately.
Md Monowar Hossain, meteorologist at the Met office, told The Business Standard that the impact of the cyclone may begin on Cox's Bazar and adjacent coastal areas from the evening of 13 May.
The maximum sustained wind speed could be 140km-160km per hour at the 74km area from the centre of the storm, he said.
