Interim govt should quickly announce clear schedule for election: International Crisis Group

The International Crisis Group, in a new report, said the interim government should quickly announce a clear schedule for the election.

While many are calling for it to remain in office for a minimum of two or three years, 18 months is a more realistic timeframe given the political pressures it faces, suggests the Crisis Group.

It also recommended that the interim government expand its cabinet to improve day-to-day governance.

"At present, some advisers are working on several portfolios and appear to be overstretched. In other cases, cabinet members who lack administrative experience would benefit from additional help, in the form of experienced aides and support staff," said the think tank in a report titled "A New Era in Bangladesh? The First Hundred Days of Reform."

The Crisis Group released the report today (15 November) with a few recommendations to help combat the challenges ahead for Bangladesh's interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, as it works to implement an ambitious political reform agenda.

The report said the interim government should also review the membership of the reform commissions and consider further appointments to make them more representative.

Some of the other recommendations of the Crisis Group include – the government should resist public pressure to ban the AL; financial institutions should materially aid the Yunus administration; the interim government should direct the police not to arrest those named in public complaints without sufficient evidence and a few others.

Crisis Group's Senior Consultant on Myanmar and Bangladesh Thomas Kean, said, "One hundred days after Muhammad Yunus was sworn in to lead Bangladesh's new interim government, the country stands at a crucial juncture. The interim government has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to improve governance and put checks in place that would prevent another autocratic regime from emerging. But the scale of the task is monumental.

"In particular, the interim government will need to maintain a degree of political consensus with key political players, including student leaders, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Islamist forces, the military, and civil society. Already, cracks are emerging in the fragile alliance that propelled Yunus to power, over key issues such as accountability for human right violations, constitutional change and electoral reform. To maintain the widespread public support it enjoys, the interim government also needs to improve its handling of day-to-day governance."

"If Yunus and his team falter, the country could revert back to having elected governments with few checks on power, or even enter a period of military rule. But if they can succeed in steering reforms, Bangladeshis could stand to benefit for decades to come," he added.

The interim government and the reform commissions it has established should also engage in genuine dialogue with key political players – not just allies such as the students and the army, but also the BNP and Islamist parties, particularly Jamaat given its political weight. Reaching consensus on key questions such as constitutional reform or the voting system will be difficult, and all sides will need to make compromises, said the report. 

Results

To sustain public support for its long-term reform plans, the interim government will need to deliver a steady stream of results, said Crisis Group.

It has already managed to chalk up successes in terms of ensuring accountability and securing financial aid. It has also announced Bangladesh's accession to the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance and created a five-member national commission of inquiry to determine the whereabouts of the victims of enforced disappearance.

In the international arena, the September meeting between Yunus and Joe Biden on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, in which the US president pledged "continued support" for the interim government's "reform agenda", has provided an important political boost, reads the report.

Dhaka has also taken a more assertive position toward India, including submitting formal complaints to New Delhi over the killing of Bangladeshis by Indian forces along the border, which is welcomed by the public.

Yet even with new revelations of the Hasina administration's corruption and mismanagement, which are emerging daily, the current enthusiasm will only sustain the government so far. The Yunus administration should identify more ways to keep up momentum over the coming year, while deeper reform plans take shape and the path to new elections is laid out, recommends Crisis Group.