AL, BNP, EC all 'smiles' after Khulna, Barishal polls!

Perhaps the most unlikely outcome of the recently concluded Barishal and Khulna city polls was how the Awami League, the BNP and the Election Commission can agree that it was a win for all of them.

Going by the metrics and versions used by the trio, the polls went according to plan.

The AL won both mayoral posts and "proved" it can hold free and fair elections, the EC can say it had lived up to its word of holding model polls and the BNP can point to the low turnout – a record dip since 2008 – as manifestation of its prediction that people had lost faith in the ballots under the current government.

The Awami League is basking in the success of the recent Gazipur, Barishal and Khulna elections, which it believes was free, fair and acceptable.

The party wants to add two more feathers to its cap: The Rajshahi and Sylhet city polls.

All this is to set the stage for what the AL thinks will be its crowning achievement: a free and acceptable 12th national parliamentary elections, slated for next year.

A BNP boycott worries them little. The AL thinks the BNP's absence will only harm the very existence of its foe.

Speaking to The Business Standard, Awami League Presidium Member Begum Matia Chowdhury said, "With the spontaneous participation of voters in this year's city elections and no untoward incident taking place, it is clear that the next national election will also be free of influence and participatory."

She said the BNP will be forced to participate in the next national elections even if it has boycotted local government elections.

"The BNP is now in a political crisis. If it does not come to the election, their existence will be threatened, so they will have to participate."

Asked about the low voter turnout, in a declining state since 2008, she said, "All the elections held under the new Election Commission have been fair. This will continue in the next national elections. Hence, voters will participate in the national elections without any worries."

But this doesn't mean there aren't worries about the turnout.

The AL is working to increase participation in the remaining two city elections.

For this reason, instructions have been given to ensure the presence of voters in the polling stations along with campaigns of party candidates in the Sylhet and Rajshahi city polls.

A central leader of the party told TBS, "We have done research on voter turnout in city elections. We are looking into the matter. However, many party leaders and activists did not go to the polling stations in the recently held three city elections."

He said work is being done to ensure the votes of the party leaders and workers. At the same time campaigns are being continued to motivate the general voters.

BNP sees big gains from Khulna, Barishal polls

After the Barishal and Khulna city elections, BNP is seeing "big gains" in boycotting the mayoral polls swept by the ruling Awami League.

A low voter turnout, the attack on the Islami Andolon mayoral candidate followed by the party's subsequent announcement of boycotting the upcoming Rajshahi and Sylhet city polls, and failure of BNP's expelled leaders to win councillor posts are among the issues that have galvanised the opposition to believe the latest polls' outcomes were in their favour.

The BNP's boycott of the city polls is part of its careful anti-government strategy, with the aim of proving that people lack confidence in elections under the current government and the Election Commission (EC).

The only evidence of this lack of confidence can be a low voter turnout.

The party also took a hardline approach – expelling candidates who decided to participate in the Barishal and Khulna polls and ordering its activists and followers to refrain from voting.

In a damning letter, the party termed the expelled leaders as "Mir Jafars".

The BNP's post-election analysis shows that the party thinks their strategy worked efficiently.

None of its expelled leaders won the grassroots elections in Khulna. In Barishal, expelled candidates secured nine out of 30 seats.

Speaking to The Business Standard, BNP joint Secretary General Syed Moazzem Hossain Alal, said, "Our decision to expel [some party members] was proven even more strongly. They were cheated by this government with promises of fair elections, and people turned away from them. We hope this strategy will work better in Sylhet-Rajshahi."

More importantly, the voter turnout was at a historic low, compared to 2008.

Even then, the BNP leaders still questioned the voter turnout data provided by the EC.

In this regard, BNP Standing Committee member Gayeshwar Chandra Roy said, "This government is illegal and fake, and so is the Election Commission. The data from vote counts in these elections is also false.

"We, however, don't want to focus on any other aspect aside from our main demand which is a caretaker government for the country," he further said.

According to the Election Commission, the turnout in the 2008 Barishal City Corporation elections was 81.99%. In 2013, it was 72.1%, falling to 55% in 2018. Yesterday, the turnout was 51.46%.

For Khulna the turnouts in the past three city elections were 77.8%, 68.7% and 62% respectively. This time it was a low of 47.88%.

Apart from the BNP not taking part, the party believes it has also managed to dissuade others from joining the elections.

Moazzem Hossain Alal told The Business Standard that the attack on Barishal's mayoral candidate Mufti during the polls has proved that people have no right or the bare minimum scope to vote freely under this government.

This particular incident and the Islami Andolan's subsequent boycott of upcoming polls under the ruling government is also seen by the BNP as an achievement in favour of its demand for a caretaker government.

EC all smiles amid criticism

The EC, too, knows that the elections to the five city corporations as an opportunity for the Kazi Habibul Awal-led EC to gain trust of voters and political parties ahead of the parliamentary polls scheduled for some time next year.

"We're very satisfied. People, the voters, the candidates and the representatives of the media are satisfied," Chief Election Commissioner Awal said after voting ended in Khulna and Barishal on Monday.

The CEC also said they had received a positive reception over the election from the media and other sources.

"The elections were peaceful, except for some isolated incidents," he said.

The isolated incident – the attack on Islami Andolon Bangladesh mayoral aspirant Faizul Karim – was a stain on the elections.

Following the attack, the EC downplayed the incident but ensured that those responsible would be punished.

This was achieved as one of the attackers was arrested hours after the attack.

Now, the EC thinks after two more elections to go, it would be ready for the national polls.

Experts still raise questions on voter turnout

As the trio pat themselves on the back, political analysts think its best to look at the voter participation in the three recent city polls.

Although low turnout is expected, given the boycott of the BNP, the main opposition, national polls won't be internationally accepted if the number of people exercising their franchise doesn't increase.

Former cabinet secretary Ali Imam Majumder told The Business Standard that the absence of the BNP would naturally raise questions on how competitive the elections were.

He said given the voter turnout in the three polls – including the 48% in Gazipur – meant on average most voters did not take part in the elections.

If boycotts lead to fewer voters in the national elections, then its credibility will be in doubt, he said.

Former Election Commissioner Brigadier General (Retd.) Dr M Sakhawat Hossain said the five city corporation elections are being one-sided.

"But this year's national election will be very difficult to do unilaterally. Because, there is a visible pressure from various international circles, including the US visa policy, which is at the centre of the national election."

He said the impact of that will be felt in the remaining two city elections and may prompt some policy changes within the party.

He also pointed out policies that had already changed, such as giving permission to Jamaat-e-Islami to hold rallies, not attacking opposition parties' rallies and processions, etc.

The former election commissioner, however, said it would be wrong to predict the face of the national elections using the city polls.

"The common people of the country will now be more aware about the national elections. If the elections are held without the resolution of the political crises and disputes that are currently going on regarding the participation in the national elections, those will not be acceptable in any way," he said.