A December election likely? Bangladesh's tradition of winter polls
Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus yesterday (16 December) announced that the next elections will be held at the end of 2025 in December or the first half of 2026.
History shows that Bangladesh typically holds its parliamentary or Jatiya Sangsad (JS) elections in winter.
It is then likely that the 13th Jatiya Sangsad will be held in December.
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Bangladesh's recent electoral history begins on 6 December 1990, when the Ershad regime was ousted, marking the end of military rule.
The first election after the restoration of democracy was held in February 1991 under a non-partisan interim government led by Justice Shahabuddin Ahmed.
This was the 5th JS election, which resulted in the BNP coming to power.
The 6th JS election was held in February 1996 under BNP rule, but it was boycotted by the Awami League, Jamaat, Jatiya Party, and other opposition parties.
This parliament lasted only briefly before a constitutional amendment established a caretaker government.
The 7th election was held again in June 1996, bringing the Awami League to power, while the 8th JS election took place in October 2001, with the BNP regaining power.
Similarly, the 9th JS election in December 2008 saw the Awami League return to power for a second term.
The 10th JS election was held in January 2014, the 11th in December 2018, and the 12th in January 2024.
Previous election commissions in Bangladesh have preferred winter, probably because it tends to increase voter turnout compared to the summer and rainy seasons.
But does weather play a role in voter turnout?
Bad weather could affect the outcome by keeping some voters at home, Kasper Hansen, a professor of political science at the University of Copenhagen and author of a 2023 study on weather and turnout in democratic elections, told the New York Times in an earlier interview.
The study found that what he termed "marginal voters," or those who only occasionally turn out to vote, are more likely to opt out if Election Day is marked by consistent, miserable rain for instance.
When a vote is determined by fine margins, weather can indeed play a crucial role.
