Putin restores power base with Prigozhin killed in plane crash

The plane crash that presumably killed Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin restored Vladimir Putin's reputation as Russia's unchallengeable leader for many of the country's elite, even as the cause of the disaster may never be fully established.

The mercenary leader's demise removes a man who'd courted impunity after leading the mutiny that threatened the Russian president's grip on power. His elimination is a strong stabilising factor for Putin's regime because it shows that anyone challenging him comes to a bad end, according to four people close to the authorities, who asked not to be identified because the matter was sensitive.

Many in the Russian elite had been shocked that Putin failed to immediately punish Prigozhin after the June rebellion that he'd denounced as treason. The crash that killed all 10 people on board the private jet traveling from Moscow to St Petersburg on Wednesday took place exactly two months after the uprising the president said had brought Russia to the brink of "civil war."

"A lively, energetic, and idea-filled Prigozhin was undoubtedly a walking issue for the regime, embodying Putin's political humiliation," said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of political consultancy R Politik. "For a significant portion of the politicised, conservative public, Prigozhin's death is a well-deserved outcome."

Putin continued with his schedule Thursday, addressing the summit of Brics nations in South Africa by video link and making no mention of Prigozhin.

The Russian president is already making preparations for his bid to secure a fifth term in March 2024 elections. He's doing so now with many in the elite convinced that he has regained his authority and demonstrated his strength after months of confusion about the political fallout from Wagner's rebellion.

To be sure, not everyone in the Russian elite is sanguine about Prigozhin's apparent downfall. His disappearance deepens a sense of fear by showing nobody is safe in Russia now, according to two people with links to the authorities.

As Russian investigators probe the circumstances of the crash, many questions remain. Some among the elite even questioned whether Prigozhin had faked his death and said they wanted to wait for DNA tests to be sure that the Wagner leader was on board the plane.

It's unclear who'll take charge of the thousands of Wagner fighters after both Prigozhin and his No. 2 in the organisation, Dmitry Utkin, were listed among the passengers on the plane.

That also raises questions about the future of Wagner's extensive operations in Africa, as well as the huge sums of money earned by the group. A third figure listed by Russian aviation authorities as on the plane, Valeriy Chekalov, was responsible for Wagner's operational finances.

Many Wagner fighters moved to Belarus under a deal struck by Prigozhin to end the rebellion as his forces came to within 200 kilometres (124 miles) of Moscow. Their presence has stoked tensions with the Baltic states and Poland, which sent troops to the border with Belarus amid mounting security concerns.

Prigozhin's apparent death may weaken or even dismantle the group's presence in Belarus, the country's exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Thursday.

Putin had been seeking to restore his shaken authority at home since the rebellion, amid rising nationalist anger over the Russian leader's stalled invasion of Ukraine, now in its 18th month. Prigozhin had won a wide following with his brazen and profane attacks on the military brass on social media, accusing them of sabotaging the war effort.

Prigozhin's earthy language made him popular with many ordinary Russians, and he was cheered on the streets of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don at the end of his brief mutiny. His willingness to visit and talk with relatives of deceased Wagner fighters contrasted strongly with the remoteness of Putin and other top officials.

Prigozhin was also popular with some in the military, who agreed with his criticisms of the conduct of the war in Ukraine. The plane crash took place a day after it emerged that Sergei Surovikin, a top general praised by Prigozhin, had been removed from his post as deputy commander of operations in Ukraine after being quizzed by security officials over his links with Wagner.

The Wagner leader had demanded the ouster of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, a close Putin ally, and Chief of the Defense Staff Valery Gerasimov. But Putin has stood by the two men, underlining for the elite that loyalty to him is paramount, even amid criticism of the military's performance in Ukraine.

"Putin is signalling what happens to anyone who dares to challenge the regime or disobey," said Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It's a powerful signal, and deliberately done at such scale – the explosion serves a demonstration effect."

Politically, Putin removed all critics of Russia's performance in the war "and has shown everyone that he is in total control of the situation," said Andrei Soldatov, an expert on Russian secret services. "If Prigozhin was indeed killed in that crash, this means that Putin is a very cold-blooded player."

Abroad, too, officials in the US and Europe expressed little shock that Prigozhin may have been the target of an assassination.

"I don't know for a fact what happened, but I'm not surprised," President Joe Biden told reporters.

"The current Russian system, Putin's Russia, is built on death and suffering," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Thursday in an interview with Deutschlandfunk radio. "We must fear that Russia, with or without Wagner, will continue with its cynical game, not only in Ukraine but also in Africa."

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on Bloomberg, and is published by special syndication arrangement.