Omicron daily cases could surpass Delta’s if restrictions not followed: Health experts

With the positivity rates above 10%, as many as 26 districts are now at high risks of Covid-19 infection since the curve went high on Thursday largely due to faster transmission of the Omicron variant.

According to data of the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), three districts had the positivity rates above 50%, one district above 40%, one district above 30%, four districts above 20% and 16 districts above 10%.

The Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) said districts with positive rates of 10% and above are considered at a "high risk", while those with 5%-9% at a "medium risk".

Public health experts observed that although the transmission of Omicron was rising in the capital only for the past couple of weeks, now it is spreading across the country. If the existing health guidelines and restrictions cannot be implemented strictly, the result would be even deadlier than last year when the Delta wave inflicted in the country.

Adviser of Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) Dr M Mushtuq Husain told TBS that the transmission is taking place fast in the divisional towns as an impact of Omicron. It is assumed that the daily graph of case detection would rise significantly next week.

"The case detection rate will shoot up next week reaching as high as 10,000 daily. Overall situation in terms of number of patients would be higher than 16,000 cases daily, as was the case during Delta wave," he said.

Bangladesh has reported 12 deaths and 3,359 Covid cases in the last 24 hours till 8am Thursday.

Of the high-risk zones, Habiganj logged the highest 58.8% positivity rate while Kurigram, Thakurgaon, Chuadanga, Patuakhali recorded zero cases.

The 27 districts are – Habiganj, Gaibandha, Pirojpur, Khagrachhari, Lakshmipur, Sunamganj, Bagerhat, Bandarban, Jashore, Rangamati, Panchagarh, Rangpur, Bhola, Munshiganj, Bogura, Jhenidah, Dhaka, Mymensingh, Cumilla, Natore, Narsingdi, Narail, Kushtia, Sherpur, Lalmonirhat, Feni and Chattogram.

Also, the positivity rate rose to 12.03% as 27,920 samples were tested across the country, according to the data released by the DGHS.

With the latest additions, the death toll reached 28,123 and the case tally climbed to 16,04,664 in the country.

During July and August last year, when the second wave occurred due to Delta transmission, the death rate was over 200 per day which continued for 30 days. At that time, on an average over 16,000 positive cases were being detected everyday. 

Hospitals stopped taking admission of new patients as they were not able to handle that much pressure of patients. Many patients died due to shortage of oxygen supply. 

This time the case detection would be higher than last year as the Omicron variant spreads faster, health experts said.

Dr Mushtuq suggested following the "Chapai Model" to curb Covid transmission outside Dhaka by doing antigen tests free of cost in mobile vans. Besides, the positive patients have to be isolated for which everyone including the local administration and public representatives should cooperate.

Professor Nazrul Islam, noted virologist and a member of the National Technical Advisory Committee on Covid-19 told The Business Standard that the daily positivity rate suggests the virus situation is dangerous. The Delta variant arrived here through the bordering districts and spread all over the country gradually.

This year, Covid situation in India is perilous due to the impact of Omicron, said Prof Nazrul, adding: we have to be more careful in tackling transmission in the bordering districts.

"It would be a blunder if we think that the infection rate is high in Dhaka only. We have to work to prevent the transmission across the country by implementing health guidelines like use of masks," he said.

Meanwhile, the government has been implementing 11-point restrictions from Thursday. Citizens seemed to be relaxed in following the instructions on the first day.

Dr Mustuq thinks it is possible to lower the transmission curve without imposing lockdown if the restrictions and health guidelines are followed properly.

Moderna jabs as boosters instead of Pfizer

The government has decided to administer Moderna Inc's Covid-19 vaccine as booster doses instead of Pfizer's. The decision was taken considering the number of vaccine jabs in hand and to ensure vaccines for all in the country.

DGHS issued a notification on Wednesday  in this regard instructing concerned health authorities in the country associated with the government's inoculation programme to follow the directives.

Pfizer vaccine will be reserved for use as the first and second doses for students in school and college (ages 12-17) and other people who have already received one dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

The government rolled out the coronavirus booster vaccine programme on 28 December last year.
Currently, Bangladesh is giving Moderna, AstraZeneca, Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines for the first and second doses.