‘Core inflation in Asia might not last as long as in other countries’
Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC Holdings Plc has said that core inflation in Asia may not he as long lasting as in other parts of the world, allowing policy makers to focus on slowing growth as headline price pressures cool.
"Across the region, monetary officials may thus 'look through' the current spike in headline CPI readings, and begin to worry more about the looming slowdown in global growth," Neumann said.
"The correlation between food and energy prices on the one hand, and core prices on the other, is often lower than it is in the West where 'core stickiness' may pose a particularly acute problem."
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There are drawbacks, such as the bigger impact of headline inflation on core CPIs in India, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
"A lingering worry is that core CPIs will prove stubbornly 'sticky', staying elevated or even continuing to climb further, forcing ongoing monetary tightening even as economies start to cool," according to Neumann.
Still, for much of Asia this threat is unlikely to play out. Labor markets aren't feeling the same strain of workers shortages that other developed economies are, which will also ease pressure on core inflation.
"So...good reason to expect 'manageable stickiness' for the most part," Neumann said.
