Analysts see hope as bourses reopen today

Having recovered most of the previous two week's losses in the last eleven sessions before the Eid-ul-Adha holidays, stock investors had a good vacation and the trading in the bourses of Dhaka and Chattogram are going to resume on Sunday.

The first trading day of the new fiscal year should open with bullish notes, in continuation to the sentiment during the last closing bell before holidays, expected investors and analysts.

Leaving behind the month's interim volatility, DSEX, the broad-based index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, closed 6,344 on 26 June, 0.07% higher from the previous month's last closing bell.

Despite some political uncertainties ahead of the upcoming national election, the macroeconomic factors already showed some signs of taking a positive direction and that matters to stock investors who mostly act on early signs, according to analysts at different brokerage and asset management firms.  

After a year of deterioration, the economy was turning around, Shanta Securities Head of Research and Strategy SM Galibur Rahman, a chartered financial analyst (CFA), recently said in an interview with TSB.   

With the recent central bank announcement of leaving the exchange rate to the market and letting lending rates adjust by 100-200 basis points upwards in a high inflation environment should help stabilize the macroeconomic scenario, he believed like most of his industry peers.

"The worst is over," he said, adding that the fundamental factors that drove the dollar 25% higher against Bangladeshi Taka in a year were not the same now.

Meanwhile, the US dollar itself was calming down against all other major currencies after the big jump at the peak of the Ukraine War's economic aftermath.

Taka should not fall that much like it did over the past one year, opined the analyst.

Corporate earnings that had already taken the main shocks of the adverse economic situation should not repeat the same decline in the coming days unless a new major crisis emerges, he said, adding that a small growth in profits should lead to a turnaround for many of the listed companies.

Also, if the demand-supply in the money market works well, the banking industry's lending-borrowing rates should not surge too much.

However, leveraged companies' financial cost might rise a bit, while cash rich companies might enjoy a higher interest income, he shared his forecasts.

Stock market as a leading indicator of the economy should not overlook so many things together, he believed and expected rational investment decisions at the turning points should pay off.