2024 Indian elections: Will we see a repeat of 1984 or 2004?

A day before the marathon march to Indian elections begin (it will start on 19 April and conclude on 1 June) Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party won't cross the 150-seat mark. 

"We are getting reports from every state that our election is improving and there is an undercurrent," Gandhi said. And what did Modi say? "Abki baar, 400 paar." Rahul was referencing Modi's claim that the ruling NDA alliance will win more than 400 seats (of which, Modi claims, BJP alone will win 370). 

But is it even practical to expect victory in 400 seats in a house of 543 parliamentary seats? 

Yes, apparently. A precedent was set back in 1984 when Congress claimed 414 seats, 61 seats up from the elections before that. But that actually happened due to public sympathy following the assassination of Indira Gandhi on 31 October that year, around a month before the elections. 

And is Gandhi's claim of limiting the popular BJP below 150 an improbable one? Apparently not, because that too has precedent. In 2004, the NDA under former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee — a highly popular leader — was crushed by Indian National Congress in a surprise defeat, at a time when Congress looked too disoriented to win an election. 

So, what is going to happen in 2024? A repeat of 2004 or 1984? 

A fun fact about the 1984 elections was that the BJP won just two seats that year. And now they have saffronised the entirety of India in a way which seemed impossible even a decade ago. Except for the South, where NDA has yet to win over voters, and West Bengal on the other side, almost the entire India has bowed down to the BJP and its right-wing policies. 

It has been 10 years since Modi came to power and yet his approval rating is sky high. Ipsos India's latest poll showed a 75% approval rating for the Indian PM. In the 2014 general elections, the BJP managed to win 282 seats, which improved to 303 seats in the 2019 elections. 

Just like content makers on the internet strive to remain relevant through various ruses, Modi and his party somehow manage to remain relevant with noisy moves — lately the Ram Temple inauguration for example — besides hosting the prestigious G20 summit, which showcased Indian muscle worldwide. 

Following the G20, came the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit where business leaders descended on the Indian city. "At a time when the world is surrounded by many uncertainties, India has emerged as a new ray of hope," PM Modi proudly said. 

He was right, an Economist report reads, "though global growth is expected to slow from 2.6% last year to 2.4% in 2024, India is booming. Its economy grew by 7.6% in the 12 months to the third quarter of 2023, beating nearly every forecast." 

However, the report goes on to say that reading between the lines of "sparse, poorly kept official data", it is apparent that despite India's growth outpacing that of most emerging economies, the country's "labour market remains weak and private-sector investment has disappointed." In February 2024, unemployment in India rose to 8% from 6.8% in January. 

But given the overall stability Modi brought for the Indians, the same Economist report concludes, "many Indians will go to the polls feeling cautiously optimistic about the economic changes that their prime minister has wrought." 

So, the NDA basically has what it takes to win an election, a nationalistic and religious fanfare accompanied by economic stability and positive growth. Does that guarantee the BJP the 272-mark sufficient for forming a government? Most analysts, although sceptical of Modi's 400 ambitions, would actually vouch for the 272 game — enough seats for NDA to comfortably return to power.  

"There is a high potential that the BJP will come back. Even if BJP doesn't secure intellectually and economically sound south India, the northern and other areas will still be comfortable for them," said Shahab Enam Khan, a professor of International Relations. 

"The BJP's ideological footing in Indian society has grown much stronger than previous years. BJP has been able to bank on its own definition of nationalism. They have an advantage there," he said. 

The Indian Congress is an important actor, he said. But the INDIA alliance is a diverse group with diverse political interests. "As a result, they cannot take a decision about power sharing. However, that doesn't mean the Congress is weak either," he added. 

Touhid Hossain, former foreign secretary and diplomat, sees a comfortable return for BJP on 272-threshold. He however finds the comparisons to 2004 interesting. 

"Everything was going great for BJP then, hence, there was a feel-good factor. Among other advantages they had, this 'feel-good' factor was an added advantage. LK Advani was explicitly talking about this. He had hoped BJP would win and he would become the Prime Minister. But BJP lost that election despite everything indicating otherwise," Touhid said. 

"I am not saying the situation is similar. The BJP would naturally want a two-third majority so that they can amend the constitution. I have seen less indication that supports this ambitious claim. Many on the other hand said they might not even get to 272. But I think they will get 272. But the claim that BJP alone might win over 300 — I don't see that coming," he said. 

No matter how much frenzy they create, they have an incumbency problem — they could not execute much of their pledges, aside from the Ram Temple. Only building the temple won't feed the hungry stomachs, he said. 

On the question of Modi's economic success, this former diplomat said "the economy is doing well for whom? For the Ambanis and Adanis? Yes of course." But there is substantial doubt how much of it is actually reaching common people. There is much poverty. "I don't think common people will come to vote for Modi, dazzled by economic growth," he added. 

Modi, in a bid to win big, however, has targeted the south, an area unfazed by Hindutva politics that has won over the other areas of India. He cautiously staked a claim over Sri Lanka's Katchatheevu Island, which lies 33km off India's coast, which was settled by New Delhi and Colombo some 50 years ago. 

Modi and his government have claimed the island was gifted to Sri Lanka by the former Congress government. Katchatheevu has historically been an emotive subject in Tamil Nadu. 

Reviving this old claim has largely been seen as an attempt to win over the votes in the South, which would inevitably provide the BJP with the '400 paar' number Modi is targeting. 

Diplomat Touhid, however, doesn't think this will play out well in the Indian south. "I don't think it is a big problem. I don't think they have much of a chance in Tamil Nadu or Kerala," Touhid said. 

But what about Indian Muslims as BJP's return looks more plausible? 

"The Muslim population in India has always been divided. The BJP has its own Muslim vote base, and Muslim votes this election may well be swinging. So more than concern; it will be interesting to see how Muslims cast their votes this time," Shahab Enam said. 

Both the analysts are of the opinion that no matter who wins in India, New Delhi's relations with Dhaka will not change. It will change "absolutely nothing", said Touhid. "It will remain exactly where it is today. India is gaining advantages. Why would they spoil it?" Shahab Enam said, "Its policy regarding Bangladesh will remain the same whether it is BJP or Congress." 

However, he sees significant change in New Delhi's relations with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Maldives if Congress comes to power. 

Touhid Hossain, on the other hand, sees a stable South Asia in either scenario. 

However, he said there is curiosity about how India's relations play out with Afghanistan in the future. 

"Kabul's relation has deteriorated fast with Islamabad. India has greatly invested there. They had great relations with the previous government. They are starting anew with the Taliban. The Taliban might consider good relations with India. The Taliban is improving its ties with China very fast. What may happen is, if the Taliban also play the game well, they may maintain good ties with both India and China," Touhid Hossain said.