End of Imran Khan’s political innings?

Both Pakistan and its former populist Prime Minister Imran Khan appear to be at a crossroads.

The country is struggling with massive floods, inflation, energy crisis, among other things, which is threatening to unravel the economy and thrust it into a Sri Lanka-like crisis, until urgent steps are taken. 

Compounding the misery of ordinary Pakistanis is the spectre of ongoing political theatre where at one end Pakistan's military and political establishment appear bent on trying to hold onto the reins of power by barring Imran Khan from contesting in the next polls, while the latter appears to be growing more and more popular with each passing day, since his ouster in April 2022. 

Imran was ousted by a no-confidence motion passed by the National Assembly. Many, including Imran Khan himself, interpreted the no-confidence motion as ultimately driven by pressure from the US due to Imran Khan's administration's friendly relations with Russia. 

Recently, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) disqualified the former prime minister from participating in the National Assembly of Pakistan, but the disqualification is surrounded by layers of ambiguity. 

For instance, it remains unclear whether the ECP's decision applies only until the end of the current National Assembly's tenure, that is, only until 13 August, 2023, or whether it will apply for five five years, as asserted by Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar in a press conference, or whether it will last for the rest of Imran Khan's lifetime, as many fear.

Until his disqualification by the ECP, Imran Khan was the chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which literally translates to "Pakistan Movement for Justice." The PTI was founded by Imran Khan in 1996, who turned to politics, as well as academia and philanthropy, following his retirement as arguably one of the greatest all rounders in international cricket. The PTI became one of the three major political parties in Pakistan, especially over the last decade and a half. 

Before their mass resignation in April 2022, in protest of the ousting of Imran Khan, the PTI held 142 of 342 seats in the National Assembly, which made it the most represented political party in the National Assembly.

In the most recent elections for the National Assembly, the PTI recaptured six seats and added two more seats in Punjab. The ECP's disqualification of Imran Khan comes right on the heels of the PTI's recent victory. Moreover, the ECP's decision disqualifies not only Imran Khan, but also deprives the PTI of the seats it recently won.

The ECP's official reason for disqualifying Imran Khan is his alleged corruption. 

To summarise, the ECP charged that Imran Khan received gifts from foreign dignitaries which he did not declare to the proper government office, some of which he sold without turning over the proceeds to the proper government office. 

The ECP argued that these goods allegedly received and sold by Imran Khan were the rightful property of the state, since he received them in his capacity as prime minister.

In Pakistan, Imran Khan's case is often mentioned with reference to "Toshakhana." Toshakhana is the department of the Cabinet Division of the Pakistani government that, since its establishment in 1974, stores valuable gifts given to rulers, parliamentarians, bureaucrats, and officials by heads of other governments and states and foreign dignitaries. 

The ECP's written ruling against Imran Khan states that Khan "intentionally and deliberately" violated the provisions contained [in] sections 137, 167 and 173 of the Elections Act, 2017, as he "has made false statement (sic) and incorrect declaration before the Commission in the statement of assets and liabilities filed by him for the year 2020-21." 

Therefore, he is disqualified under Article 63(1)(p) of the Constitution read with sections 137 and 173 of the Elections Act, 2017, it added. According to the ECP ruling, this means that "he ceases to be a member of the National Assembly of Pakistan and his seat has become vacant accordingly."

The ruling also stated that Khan "has made false statements and incorrect declaration," therefore he has also committed the "offence of corrupt practices" defined under sections 167 and 173 of the Elections Act, 2017, punishable under Section 174 of the Elections Act, 2017. This means that, as per Article 63 (1) (p) of the Constitution, Khan is, "for the time being, disqualified from being elected or chosen as a member of the Majlis-e-Shoora (parliament) or of a provincial assembly under any law for the time being in force."

However, due to a ruling by Pakistan's Supreme Court in 2018 that states that any individual disqualified under Articles 62 and 63 of the Constitution is also barred from serving as the head of a political party, the ECP's verdict could also mean that Khan could cease to be the chairman of the PTI. 

Commenting on the situation, political analyst Mosharraf Zaidi said, "Imran Khan's disqualification is a joke." Journalist Cyril Almeida commented, "If you can't beat him, disqualify him." 

Lawyer Abdul Moiz Jaferii commented that "this is once more an example of the political sun shining upon Imran Khan's opponents, and the powers that help justice get done in this country doing what they do best — trying out something new. Let's wait for the order and see how it explains the ridiculous, but "maybe it will stick" is the best possible rationale at play here."

Legal proceedings will be initiated against Imran Khan for alleged misdeclaration, and the PTI faces a steep legal battle. Moreover, although Khan has been disqualified from holding seats in the National Assembly and from being the head of a political party, he has not been disqualified from politics as such. 

Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan, wrote that without Imran Khan, "Pakistan's biggest political party will effectively cease to exist. The pretence of democracy will become impossible to sustain. Pakistan would risk becoming an international pariah."

He added, "Nevertheless, the youth of the country, more or less across the board, have never given up on him because of their hatred of the incorrigible corruption they see his political opponents indulging in, and which is ravaging their lives. They are aware Imran Khan may not be an angel. But, compared to his rivals, the youth and most probably a considerable majority of the poorer classes do indeed see him as an angel. The following, accordingly, assumes elections will be held on schedule and Imran Khan will be able to lead his party into them."

Although some have warned that Imran Khan and the PTI face a tough legal battle ahead, both the ECP and Imran Khan himself have suggested that the PTI will employ extra-legal tactics in its fight against the ECP. 

On the one hand, the ECP claimed that the PTI will employ extra-legal tactics because Imran Khan is incontrovertibly guilty and cannot defend himself by purely legal means in court. On the other hand, Imran Khan and his supporters claim that extra-legal tactics are necessary because the ECP's verdict is politically motivated and not a valid legal claim to begin with.

The ECP's deliberation and ruling prompted mass protests by PTI supporters in major cities across the country. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif commented that Imran Khan ought to submit to the ECP's ruling instead of "contesting the law, wielding sticks, firing shots and bringing mobs."

Imran Khan himself has called for an end to the current protests, but only in the name of a much larger, pre-planned protest. In a pre-recorded video that aired on television, Imran Khan said, "I am asking all protesters to end their demonstrations because people are in difficulty." He added, "I had said I will hold a long march by the end of the month. I will hold the biggest protest…My movement for real freedom will continue until supremacy of law is established."

Commenting on his political opposition, Khan said, "Allah wants us to rise against these thieves. We can't get rid of these thieves until we prepare to struggle against them."

As always in Pakistani politics, the final decision on the future of Imran Khan's political career will probably not be decided by the Pakistani people, or the courts and election commission for that matter, but by the military establishment. 

And this is where the current political fiasco is unique, in that although the top brass of the junta are clearly aligned with the current government there are strong murmurs that Imran enjoys palpable popularity among the lower and middle ranks of the military, comparable to his undeniable popularity among the Pakistan's growing urban and rural middle class. 

In which directly the junta eventually leans is something the world is eagerly looking on to find out.