Hamas blitzkrieg: A thunderbolt that shook every piece on the chessboard

Israeli Journalist Yossi Verter blames Netanyahu's "criminal recklessness" for the latest Hamas attacks and incursion in Israel. His Haaretz column on 8 October says that PM Bibi was responsible for the "damage to the defence establishment [of Israel] and the erosion of deterrence" ever since he launched his agenda for a judicial overhaul to strip the Supreme Court of power. 

Israelis have been protesting for nearly 40 weeks against Bibi's right-wing coalition's 'judicial coup.' As Netanyahu's "government of horrors" has hacked Israel to pieces, Yossi writes, seeing a torn public, Hamas "found it hard to resist the temptation [to attack]." 

Ever since Hamas launched their operation 'Al-Aqsa Flood' on Saturday morning at 6.30 am by firing 5,000 rockets, while dozens of their fighters infiltrated into Israel-controlled areas, more than 250 Israelis have been reportedly killed and unknown numbers taken hostage. 

Israel's counter-offensive, on the other hand, killed over 300 Palestinians in Gaza. Both Hamas and Israel officially declared they are at war.

What will the 'lightning war' bring?

This Hamas blitzkrieg is without precedence, because this is the first time that the war has been taken to Israel-controlled areas after Hamas fighters managed to infiltrate en masse (over 1,000 in some estimates), through different means, including paragliding at the backdrop of thousands of rockets being fired into Israel on Saturday dawn. 

For the first time in years, an Israel-Palestine war escalated on the Israel side, but yes, Gaza is also burning and as things stand, there are clear indications that Netanyahu will capitalise on this moment to turn the Palestinian territory into  a 'deserted island.' 

Given the casualties on the Israeli side, and Hamas' apparent desire to fight a decisive war which eventually also incentivises Netanyahu's political career and ambitions, the endless war in the Palestinian lands will perpetuate morbidly in the coming days. 

How the war might unfold in the long run is unpredictable at the moment. Analysts fear prolonging Israeli land invasion of Gaza, with little disregard for common Palestinian lives, Netanyahu may be inclined to show unprecedented ruthlessness in the next few weeks. 

Unsurprisingly, the Western countries didn't hesitate to voice and show their support for Israel. Meanwhile, Iran and Hezbollah expressed their unequivocal support for Hamas. 

This war, however, has somewhat cornered Saudi Arabia, for it coincided with a time when Mohammed Bin Salman was exploring a way to normalise ties with Israel. 

This is also not playing out well in Israel at the moment as Israeli journalist Yossi writes that Netanyahu "placed his bets on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with a normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia meant to guarantee safe political shores. And these are also receding now." 

Hamas blitzkrieg seems to have startled Turkey too as the Sultan there was trying to mend ties with Israel after years of hostilities. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, in their statement, asked 'both sides' to exercise restraints, falling short of openly endorsing Hamas. The statements, however, warned Israel not to attack common Palestinians and mosques in general, though. 

Will these countries maintain such neutrality if Israel continues harsh attacks like Netanyahu threatened? Time will tell. 

Why now?

The regional geopolitical dilemma aside, this war managed to shock and surprise all parties; it is something no one expected. Even Mossad, the formidable spy agency of Israel, failed to predict that such a plan was brewing in Gaza. 

In the recent past, while Israel was harassing and attacking the Palestinians on a regular basis in Al Aqsa, the third holiest mosque of Islam, and settlers' repression soared higher, there was an uncanny calm within the Hamas outfit. It seemed as though they didn't want to engage in any broader fight with Israel. 

If we trace back even further, it was the Islamic Jihad group, the second largest militant outfit within Gaza, that was fighting with Israel in the last few major conflicts. Hamas sat out the last two major conflicts in 2023 and 2022, which saw Israel lock horns with Islamic Jihad. 

Hamas instead engaged in improving the quality of life for the Palestinians in Gaza. 

Perhaps Hamas' lack of engagement or response through events in the recent past (such as settlers' aggression, Al-Aqsa episodes and violence against the Palestinians in general), was a period of calm before a massive storm. 

Hamas did play this one well by rattling the Israeli spies and militaries, mimicking the 1973 war launched by Egypt and Syria during the same holiday occasion. 

But, now that we are here, what comes next? 

This war serves both parties – Netanyahu, politically, because this war will fully divert attention from protests at home over Netanyahu's judicial overhaul. For Hamas, this war brings the Palestine struggle to the fore again and reestablishes the militant group's role as the key authority of Palestine. 

The war will go on for the foreseeable future. With the new Hamas strategy in action, we will see more blood on Israel's side in comparison to previous wars, but Gaza is expected to get bloodier. 

Ever since the rockets were launched by Hamas, there has been fighting at 22 locations near the Gaza-Israel divide. And Hamas' success in infiltrating Israel is something analysts say could transform the landscape of the entrenched conflict.

Political analyst Marwan Bishara, surprised at the effectiveness of the attack, told Al Jazeera, "You could say that we've just lived through 10 hours that shocked Israel and the Middle East. These are a dramatic 10 hours that are a game changer in this region. They will transform and reverse much of the strategic military and political calculus of both Palestinians and Israelis, as well as most of the countries involved in this, whether through partnership or normalisation or as enemies of Israel." 

Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas' deputy chief, demanded that they have managed to kill and capture enough Israeli soldiers to free all Palestinian detainees. 

However, Netanyahu vowed that "all the places Hamas hides in, operates from, we will turn them into rubble," warning of a long and difficult war, while Hamas deputy head said, "This is not a hit and run operation, we started an all-out battle. All scenarios are now possible and we are ready for a [Israeli] land invasion. 

We have one prime target: our freedom and the freedom of our holy sites."