Could expatriates' votes reshape Bangladesh's next elections?

In Bangladesh's new political reality, the most anticipated issue now is the upcoming national election — a crucial step towards restoring democracy in the country. 

As part of its efforts to ensure the democratic rights of every citizen, the interim government is placing significant emphasis on including expatriate voters living in various countries around the world.

Dr Badiul Alam Majumdar, chief of the Election Reform Commission (ERC), said in early November that they are taking appropriate steps to ensure the voting rights of this group.

In his address to the nation on Victory Day last Monday, Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus said, "False promises had been made repeatedly in the past. This time, our government will ensure voting rights for expatriates for the first time."

Bangladeshi expatriates, including migrant workers who are often called 'remittance warriors', face an identity crisis when it comes to national elections. For the past 53 years, they have been deprived of their voting rights.

Article 27 of the Representation of the People Order (1972) allows Bangladeshi expatriates to vote in their respective constituencies in the national parliamentary elections.

So, will the expatriates' long-standing demands finally be met? How might this inclusion reshape our next national election?

Distant but influential

The population of Bangladeshi expatriates is significant. They make up around 7.5% of the country's population and 10% of its voters.

However, the exact number of Bangladeshi expatriates is unknown. There is a significant disparity in these figures across different sources of the previous government.

The Bangladesh Bank estimates that 12.5 million Bangladeshis work in different countries. In September last year, the then Expatriates' Welfare Minister Imran Ahmad said this number was 15.5 million, whereas the 2022 census by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) reported only five million Bangladeshis living abroad.

Whatever the actual number is, it is a fact that Bangladesh ranked sixth among the top 20 countries of origin for international migrants, according to the World Migration Report 2024.

During the previous Awami League regime, free and fair elections were nonexistent. In that political scenario, expatriates' voting rights remained a distant dream, while domestic citizens were unable to cast their votes in many cases.

Bangladeshi expatriates are integral to the country's economic progress, contributing around $21 billion on average annually in remittances, making it the second-largest source of foreign currency earnings for the country after the garment sector. 

Apart from economic contributions, Bangladeshi expatriates also play a significant role in the nation's political context. Historically, they have actively supported various political movements.

They naturally remain connected politically to their motherland despite leaving the country, as proven by their activism and involvement in national issues. They are often well-informed about the political situation back home and can play a crucial role in electing capable leaders.

This was particularly evident and influential during the July uprising. Expatriate communities worldwide, including students, demonstrated solidarity by taking to the streets. 57 migrant workers in the UAE were even detained for their activism. 

Their call for a remittance boycott had a notable economic impact as well. Remittance inflow declined 3.2% year-on-year to $1.90 billion in July this year. Following the fall of the Hasina government, remittance inflows again surged, highlighting the expatriates' influence on the economy.

A long-awaited change

"I think it's a valuable suggestion that would allow diaspora members to participate in our electoral politics. It should be very significant as Bangladesh has such a large expatriate population," said Zain Ali, a Sweden-based PhD candidate.

The Election Reform Commission has already started updating the voter list and taking necessary steps to ensure a fair election. 

Political analyst Dr Zahed Ur Rahman, a member of the Electoral Reform Commission, assured that the commission is fully committed to addressing this issue. "Putting aside all the contributions of expatriates, the state must ensure a fair environment for every citizen to vote. This is their political and constitutional right," he remarked.

"The struggles and hardships of expatriates will never truly end unless their voting rights are ensured because any political party naturally prioritises only people who hold the power to vote," he added.

A new chapter for democracy

In the past few elections, many people intentionally chose not to vote because they felt their votes did not count in a one-sided election. A free and fair election itself will pave the way for restoring democracy in Bangladesh. And including expatriates will be the next significant step.

"Including expatriates in the electoral process would enhance the legitimacy and inclusivity of Bangladesh's democracy. The interim government must take decisive steps to ensure expatriates can exercise their voting rights, aligning with constitutional obligations and international norms," said Md Kabir Hosen, president of Bangladesh Probashi Odhikar Parishad (Bangladesh Expatriate Rights Council).

To understand the significance of expatriate votes, we can look into the recent US election. A Time magazine article, published on 2 November, highlighted this impact with the title: Overseas votes could decide the election. 

There are 4.4 million US citizens living abroad, some 2.8 million of whom are eligible to vote in elections. However, historically, only a small fraction do — for example, only 3.4% voted in the 2022 mid-term election.

If they can play a decisive role in the elections, Bangladeshi expatriates — who are larger in number and more politically aware should have an even bigger influence on our elections.

How can it be done?

Just declaring expats' voting rights is not enough. It must come with a clear framework and guidelines about how they would vote.

In 2008, Bangladesh introduced the postal ballot system. However, there was a lack of information and awareness initiatives from their respective embassies. Expatriates also showed little interest in voting, as it seemed insignificant in the one-sided elections.

"I think the government should do it in a streamlined fashion that makes it simple for expatriate voters and could look at mail-in ballot systems in countries like the US for inspiration," suggested Zain Ali. 

However, Md Kabir Hosen finds the postal ballot system a 'flawed method'.

"Despite being introduced, virtually nobody could vote due to logistical challenges in distributing and retrieving ballots. It must be replaced with a more practical system, such as in-person voting at designated locations or secure online voting," he said.

Nearly 120 countries around the world now provide some form of voting rights to their expatriates. In Turkey's recent presidential election, nearly 1.9 million expatriates voted through arrangements facilitated by their embassies. On the other hand, Estonia is a notable example of a country using technology to allow its expatriates to vote online.

ERC member Dr Zahed Ur Rahman said, "In terms of online voting, cybersecurity is a big concern. We have included an iVoting [internet voting] expert in our commission to review it. Even if security is ensured, online voting can raise questions about its provision for all internal citizens too."

Another key challenge, he admitted, is including all expatriates in the voters' lists, given millions of them do not have national identity cards (NIDs). The government's priority needs to be issuing NIDs for them.

"And in the case of designated locations or embassy-based models, the challenge can be providing logistics and ensuring on-site security," he added.

However, he concluded by assuring that the commission is moving towards an effective solution through discussions with all stakeholders.