How far will Israel take this war?

On Tuesday, 1 October, Iran executed an unprecedented attack against Israel, unleashing a barrage of missiles at the nation, in the latest escalation following weeks of heightened violence and tensions in the region.

According to Iranian state media, the attack, which was in conjunction with a large-scale cyber assault, marked the first use of Iran's new Fatah hypersonic ballistic missiles.

Iran launched almost 200 ballistic missiles towards Israel. The Israeli military reported that it intercepted "a large number" of the ballistic missiles launched by Iran, adding that there were "isolated" impacts in central and southern Israel. Iran, meanwhile, claimed that 90% of the projectiles launched successfully struck their intended targets.

Why did Iran attack?

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that the missile barrage was a response to what it termed the "violation of Iran's sovereignty and the martyrdom" of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who died in an explosion in Tehran in July, an incident that Iranian officials attributed to Israel, although Israeli officials did not claim responsibility.

The statement indicated that the attack was a reaction to the Israeli air strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut last Friday, which resulted in the deaths of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Brig-Gen Abbas Nilforoushan, the operations commander of the IRGC's overseas arm, the Quds Force. This attack signals the seriousness of their intent to respond to such actions against their allies. 

Although there were no cases of death reported in Israel, a Palestinian man in the West Bank was killed as a result of falling "rockets and shrapnel". According to an Israeli security official's statement to BBC, they have shot most of the missiles down. 

A senior Iranian official told Reuters the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had personally given the order for Tuesday's missile attack.

The escalation also followed Israeli troops' invasion of southern Lebanon to eliminate what the military claimed to be "Hezbollah terror targets" in border villages endangering northern Israel's population.

How will Israel react?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Iran had "made a big mistake" and "will pay for it". 

"There is no question that Israel will respond. You're going to get into the type of retaliatory action, back and forth, that spawns a greater war," Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.

Rahman went on to say that Israel "has been trying to invite this war" through its actions over the past several months. "Israel is capable of massive destruction, as we're seeing in Lebanon. It's capable of huge intelligence feats and waging really destruction warfare. Iran, I think, has tried to avoid that, but it's on the path to some type of war with Israel."

Many experts seem to believe that it is becoming increasingly evident that Israel is attempting to emulate the success of the Six-Day War, which dramatically shifted the balance of power in the Middle East in favour of Israel. That defeat in the hands of Israel led to the decline of radical Arab nationalism, resulting in humiliation for multiple Arab nations, particularly Egypt, Syria, and Jordan.

This time around, Netanyahu intends to do the same to the Axis of Resistance to tone down their power. Axis of Resistance, consisting of a few Iran-backed political and armed militia groups, namely Lebanese group Hezbollah, Palestinian group Hamas, and the Yemenite group Houthis.

Although marked as terrorist groups by the US, these work against Israel and US interventions in the Middle East.

"Israel is hoping to do to the Axis of Resistance what it did in 1967 to Arab nationalism so it can be the second greatest victory since 1967 and Mr Netanyahu can take credit for it," American political scientist Norman Gary Finkelstein said in an interview with Indian Youtube channel 'India and Global Left'.

US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have pledged their support for Israel, should it choose to retaliate against Iran. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the UK stood with Israel and recognised its "right to self-defence".

Is the Middle East on the brink of a larger regional war?

CNN reports that even until a few weeks ago, some senior US officials privately believed that through its diplomatic and deterrence efforts, Washington had helped to successfully thwart a large-scale Iranian attack against Israel. But the Nasrallah assassination might have been the final straw.

Israel shows no signs of backing down. The Israeli military continues its operations in the Gaza Strip, with a recent strike in Gaza killing at least eight. Simultaneously, Israeli forces have expanded their military activities inside Lebanese territory. The successful assassination of some of the top leaders of Iran's Axis of Resistance gave them a boost in confidence.

Experts fear Netanyahu might choose to aim for the nuclear facilities of Iran in retaliation.  Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett certainly believes that is the way to go, as he took to social media site X and urged Israel to retaliate by destroying Iran's nuclear program. A move that will no doubt bring the Middle East one step closer to full-scale war.

Netanyahu has another reason to go hard: The next elections. He wants to prove he is still the man for the job. Netanyahu's popularity, which was in freefall after the Hamas attacks on 7 October, has been boosted by his country's military successes against Hezbollah, a new opinion poll suggests.

The Biden administration is likely to suggest Israel not get involved in a full scale war as the election in the US is right around the corner. But as seen earlier, Netanyahu went against Biden's suggestion and chose to do as he wanted. He might go against Biden's will this time as well.

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has gone on record to say Tuesday's operation was "only a portion of our power." Yet experts think despite Iran's fiery rhetoric, they do not want a full-fledged war, rather their attack was just a response to the assassination of the leaders of its allies. 

"Tehran is likely hoping there will be some restraint. Iran is trying to throw down some red lines, knowing full well that it is in a defensive position, that Hezbollah is compromised, and that it doesn't have the traditional conventional capabilities to fight Israel," Salam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House told CNN.

It seems the only surefire way out of a full-scale regional war is a change in American policy. 

"This will not stop without the United States putting its foot down and saying, we will not send more weapons to Israel. We will not fund and aid Israeli crimes,'" Raed Jarrar, advocacy director at the US-based think tank DAWN, told Al Jazeera.