Israel's airstrike on Lebanon: A reactionary fallout or launch pad for an all-out war?

In what the experts claim is the most severe border violence since the 2006 war between the two parties, Israel launched a 'rare' airstrike on its northern neighbouring nation Lebanon on Friday.

To make matters worse, Israel also kept bombarding the Gaza Strip alongside Lebanon, putting millions of people in the continuous fear of an impending war. 

This begets the question: what led Israel to conduct its biggest military strike on Lebanon in 17 years since the time they fought against Hezbollah, an Iraq-backed Lebanese militia?

According to the claims from Israeli authorities, this was a sudden reactionary fallout, in response to an unusually heavy rocket barrage from Lebanon on Thursday.

The Israeli military is putting the blame for it on Gaza-based Palestinian militias with branches on the Lebanese territory.

The conflict, however, was triggered when the Israeli police conducted raids on the Al-Aqsa mosque compound during the holy month of Ramadan. 

The raids and what followed

The first raid took place overnight on Wednesday when the Israeli police not only arrested hundreds of Palestinians but also charged a host of seemingly frightened people with batons inside the darkened building.

To add to that, they also shattered doors and windows to enter the mosque and planted rubber bullets and stun grenades once they were inside. 

Then, during the second raid on the same day, Israeli forces once again assaulted and pushed Palestinians out of the compound and also prevented them from praying. 

At least 400 Palestinians were arrested throughout the day, and according to Palestinian officials, they are still being held at a police station in Atarot in occupied East Jerusalem. 

The back-to-back raids on Al-Aqsa bear tremendous significance, as the mosque is sacred to both Muslims and Jews. The silver-domed mosque inside a 35-acre compound is a constant point of contention in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. 

While Israeli authorities control access to the site, the compound is administered by Jordanian and Islamic officials.

On Wednesday evening, when Muslim worshippers were brutally attacked on the mosque compound, Jews were also present there to celebrate Passover. While they were protected by the Israeli forces in every possible way, Muslims had to tolerate the inhumane torture, that too during the holy month of Ramadan. 

In the aftermath of the raids, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even went to the extent of saying that he was working to "maintain the status quo" at the holy site. 

This discriminatory behaviour, combined with the sufferings of the Muslim worshippers, certainly didn't go down well with the Arab and Muslim world as they condemned the events in unison.

Is an all-out war on the horizon?

The rockets that were fired from the Gaza Strip and Lebanon targeting Israel is being considered a direct reaction to the torture of the Muslim worshippers in Al-Aqsa mosque on Wednesday. 

But to many, the following airstrike from Israel could very well be the launching pad of another all-out war in the region. 

It might sound exaggerated, however, the historical background in reference to the present situation would suggest otherwise. 

On Friday, ahead of the dawn prayers, Israeli forces again baton-charged a section of the Palestinian worshippers who chanted slogans praising Hamas, the Palestinian militant group. 

And after the airstrike in southern Lebanon, the Israeli military also claimed that it had targeted installations of Hamas.

The last time when Israel was in a war with Lebanon, in 2006, it went on for 34 days and was initially ignited by Hezbollah's capturing of two Israeli soldiers.  

And in 2021, another series of clashes at the Al-Aqsa compound started Israel's 11-day war against Gaza's Hamas rulers. 

With both Israel and Gaza on the forefront again, and Lebanon also in the mix of things this time around, things could surely go downhill in the coming days. It is also possible that Hezbollah could make their presence felt in the ongoing conflict. 

The southern region of Lebanon, towards where the Israeli military launched its airstrike, is under the influence of Hezbollah. 

It is no secret that the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has vowed time and again to put up a fight if any of its members are killed by Israel anywhere in the region.

It also should not slip out of our mind that without at least the tacit approval of Hezbollah - who has a vice-like hold on areas of southern Lebanon - Palestinian groups would not launch the kind of barrage of rockets they actually did. 

Besides, Hezbollah members were reportedly visible in the region on Thursday as well, which further solidifies the idea of them truly being behind the latest turn of events from the Lebanese side of the border. 

An all-out war between Israel and Lebanon (in defence of Palestine) might be a far-fetched idea, but not entirely improbable. 

There is a catch

Things, however, are not as black and white as they seem.

As is already known to all, there has been a detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia most recently, brokered by China.

This agreement to restore bilateral relations, in all probability, could make way for a declared truce in Yemen and reciprocal visits between the heads of governments in Tehran and Riyadh. 

Until the announcement of this detente in March, Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman was a staunch adherent of Israel's stance against Hezbollah and saw the Shia militant organisation as a strategic threat to the kingdom's interests.

Though the peace agreement doesn't mean the Crown Prince has changed his mind overnight, his direct engagement with Iran - with the UAE likely to be up next - will most definitely signal a new approach, something Israel must already be quite wary of.

And hence, the likeliness of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon, amidst all these uncertainties, could also be shelved for the time being.

After all, who on earth would risk the 'deal of the century' - the probable alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia - for the sake of a war that would only result in further losses and casualties?

The political crisis to the rescue

The burgeoning political unrest that Israel is going through at the moment, after five Knesset snap elections in the span of less than four years, could also play a pivotal role, should the country refrain from going for a war with all guns blazing.

Benjamin Netanyahu is an embattled Prime Minister who faces a huge amount of charges against him – mostly centred on allegations of fraud and bribery.

But of course, he denies all of them, and ever since coming to power last year, he has taken advantage of his coalition government's majority in parliament to try and push through legislation that would weaken the independence of the judiciary.

But as it stands right now, Netanyahu's ability to get the various pieces of legislation through parliament is looking extremely shaky, after weeks of protests. 

Meanwhile, the faith in the Prime Minister has also sunk to a new low among secular Israelis owing to the increasing discomfort with the dominance of religious Jewish voices. 

If that was not enough, on Netanyahu's part, there has even been talk of the risk of a 'civil war' too. And amidst all this, there is always the Palestinians, and right now, the added burden of another conflict cooking up with Lebanon. 

Given the current crisis the country's top leader is stuck in, it seems even more unlikely that he can afford to take the current conflict to the next level by locking horns with anyone, let alone the Hezbollah-backed Lebanese. 

At least for now, it is quite plausible that a war will be pulled back from the brink. That being said, what about ultimate peace in that part of the Middle East? That's something we may never see in our lifetime. 

With the torturing of Palestinians continuing for decades, the chances of the situation spiraling out of control, today or tomorrow, seem inevitable.