Japan's Indo-Pacific plan: What's in it for Bangladesh?

During his recent trip to India, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida presented the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) plan in detail. In his speech at the Indian Council of World Affairs on 20 March, he espoused infrastructure development in the Bay of Bengal and Northeast India, with a focus on "multilayer connectivity."

In addition to India, Japan also unveiled plans for Bangladesh. The development of Matarbari Port is one of the key components of the FOIP plan for Bangladesh. In fact, Matarbari Port – a deep seaport in Cox's Bazar district – is currently underway with the assistance of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). This project aims to ease the pressure on Chattogram port and meet the future demands of Bangladesh, including the creation of a new economic partnership agreement between Japan and Bangladesh.

"Viewing Bangladesh and other areas to the south as a single economic zone, we will promote the Bay of Bengal-Northeast India industrial value chain concept in cooperation with India and Bangladesh to foster the growth of the entire region," PM Kishida stated in his speech.

This move comes at a time when the US and its allies indicated that Bangladesh should become part of their Indo-Pacific strategy. Additionally, UK's Indo-Pacific Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan visited Bangladesh last month, indicating growing interest in Dhaka's involvement in the region.

Bangladesh has traditionally followed a non-aligned foreign policy. Does the country appear to be moving closer to embracing the Indo-Pacific Strategy championed by the United States and its regional partners, aimed at countering China?

Additional inquiries have been raised regarding the matter. Is there a possibility that it could result in a geopolitical realignment? And could it potentially exacerbate tensions in the broader region?

This initiative presents promising economic prospects for both Bangladesh and Tokyo. Japan's economy has experienced prolonged stagnation in recent decades. As part of this undertaking, Japan has committed to providing overall $75 billion in private investment by the year 2030 in this area, which includes funding for the Matarbari Port project. It is plausible that this plan's primary objective is to invigorate Japan's economy, rather than to counterbalance China's mounting geopolitical influence.

In a Foreign Policy article titled "Bangladesh Tilts Toward the US in the Indo-Pacific", Michale Kugelman hinted that Bangladesh intends to embrace the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. He also noted that Dhaka "is testing the limits of its non-alignment in the region."

However, according to Shahab Enam Khan, professor of International Relations at Jahangirnagar University, we need to review Japan's contribution to the Indo-Pacific economic landscape from a political-economic perspective rather than a myopic geopolitical approach. The Japanese vision of a free and fair Indo-Pacific coincides with Bangladesh's economic and foreign policy attitudes toward the global powers and the region as a whole. Many may see Japan's pledge as a countering approach to China. Still, this is more towards creating a sustainable Global South, which will benefit all the countries in the region.

"Japan has been a vital and crucial development partner of Bangladesh. Bangladeshis see Japan as a cordial and welcoming nation. Japan has substantially invested in Bangladesh's infrastructure, which helps the country and benefits our neighbouring countries too. Moreover, Bangladesh-Japan ties should be seen as pro-public ones that remain cordial regardless of changing political priorities in both countries. As a result of years of a mutually beneficial relationship, Bangladesh-Japan ties should be expected to grow further in the coming years."

Professor Shahab maintains that Japanese investment in the Cox's Bazar region will have a positive contribution not only to Bangladesh, but also in stabilising the economy of the conflict-ridden Rakhine, which has become a potential source of regional insecurity. This is precisely where initiatives such as Matarbari present economic opportunities for South and Southeast Asian nations and solutions to perennial human catastrophes in countries such as Myanmar. 

"We have to see the Matarbari initiative from a long-term perspective. Bangladesh-Japan should further strengthen collaboration in the transport manufacturing sector, sugar industry, development and public health technologies, and sustainable energy," he added.

It is to be noted that Tokyo has been collaborating with Dhaka to advance the construction of the Matarbari deep-water port and facilitate improved connectivity in the Bay of Bengal area through the Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt (BIG-B) scheme. 

Furthermore, Japan has established a Joint study group to explore the feasibility of an Economic Partnership Agreement with Bangladesh, with the objective of intensifying economic cooperation between the two nations.

In the form of BIG-B, Japan's plan for the Indo-Pacific was in the making decades back. Japan's recent articulation about its "free and open" Indo-Pacific concept was essentially mentioned by Shinzo Abe in 2007. 

Humayun Kabir, former ambassador of Bangladesh to the US, pointed out, "Our indo-pacific strategy encourages us to maintain diplomatic relationships with China while cooperating with the US, Japan, and other countries on different aspects of the economy. Bangladesh has already been working with several nations."

Japan has been Bangladesh's top bilateral donor for many years, and it has invested in Bangladesh's flagship projects. Bangladesh is interested in getting more Japanese investment and is open to the idea of the free and open Indo-Pacific, focusing mainly on the economic side, not the military side. 

Japan has recently shown interest in working with India and Bangladesh to build a regional economic unit comprising the area, which Bangladesh is happy to be a part of. However, Bangladesh will always keep its focus on the economic relationship and avoid taking sides or going beyond that.

Kabir suggested that Bangladesh should welcome any new ideas or investments from its partners without being viewed as a geopolitical shift. Diplomacy should be more nuanced and sophisticated in explaining Bangladesh's engagement with its partners to avoid any misunderstandings or over-interpretations. 

Bangladesh has core interests with different countries, and the intensification of engagement with one party or another should not be considered as a shift in its geopolitical position. Bangladesh will work with every partner based on its needs and priorities.

In the meantime, Bangladesh's foreign ministry has been finalising a draft for the Indo-Pacific Outlook. The draft has been made keeping in mind the importance of the Indo-Pacific region and what other countries think about it.

Citing several unnamed sources, Dhaka Tribune reported that the outlook prepared by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has considered the interests of Bangladesh in the Indo-Pacific from an economic point of view. At the same time, only those safety features which are necessary to achieve economic objectives have been taken into consideration; military or defence issues are completely avoided here. 

Should Bangladesh's outlook be primarily based on economic interests rather than geopolitical ones, it would align with the views of Shahab Enam and Humayun Kabir. This would mean that Bangladesh would prioritise economic cooperation and development over military alliances or strategic competition.