Russia-Ukraine War: One year later, still no end in sight

Map: TBS

When the Russian army rolled into Ukraine a year ago, they were anticipating a quick invasion. In fact, according to plans found by The New York Times, Russian military command had expected to march into Kyiv in mere hours. But this expected blitzkrieg was a resounding failure for the Russians. And now, a year later, they are still trapped in a deadlock with Ukrainian forces. Bitter fighting, mass casualties and war crimes have been the narrative of the war thus far.

Initial months

Despite the invasion not fully going according to plan, Russia still advanced rapidly, and within two weeks of the war, the army bore down on Kyiv. The breadth of the attack, however, was focused on eastern Ukraine. Russians were bogged down in heavy fighting in Mariupol — a strategic port city that helped establish a corridor between the illegally annexed Crimea and Donbas regions.

As the Ukrainians defended Kyiv, the Kremlin's strategies shifted. By March 2022, Kherson had fallen while in the north, Kharkiv was experiencing heavy shelling, and the Russians had seized control of Zaporizhzhia, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. 

These initial losses hit Ukraine hard. The area responsible for a significant amount of its energy generation was under Russian control. Moreover, the loss of the two port cities (Kherson and Mariupol) was a major blow to the economy and supply lines. In order to halt the Russian advance, Ukraine had taken drastic measures, such as blowing up key infrastructure like bridges to sever the Russian ground troops' routes. Faced with such a strong defence, Russia pulled out from Kyiv and its surrounding areas. By mid-May, Mariupol had finally fallen.  

Behind the scenes, Ukraine and the West were gearing up for their own offensive, which they launched in September and recaptured 3,400 square miles in a week. Significant victories followed and by November, it had forced the Russian army into a retreat and Ukraine gained back 54% of the territory it had lost, according to The New York Times. 

Much of Kherson, including its capital, was back in Ukrainian hands but a significant part of it along with other territories — Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia — remain illegally annexed by Russia. 

Now, a year after the war first began, the two countries remain in a stalemate. Fighting has been chiefly concentrated in the Donetsk region, mainly in Bakhmut. The capture of Soledar in January remains Russia's most significant victory since losing ground in September. But with reports of a mass mobilisation of troops in Russia, a renewed and bolstered offensive is expected in the coming months.

Ukraine's current firepower 

To date, Ukraine has received a steady flow of financial, humanitarian and military aid from allies. NATO members have made the most contribution, the United States has provided the largest monetary support — a whopping €73.1 billion (euros) — comprising €25.1 billion in financial, €3.7 billion in humanitarian and €44.3 billion in military aid, as of 15 January 2023. 

The United Kingdom has been the second highest NATO member provider with €8.29 billion (€3.02 billion financial, €0.40 billion humanitarian, €4.89 billion military aid) worth of support. The other bulk of support has come from the EU at €35.02 billion (€30.32 billion financial, €1.60 billion humanitarian and €3.10 billion military aid).

Military aid, naturally, has been most impactful for the Ukrainian army. As the war progressed, the nature of aid also changed. While in the earlier months, the West sent armaments with mostly defensive capabilities, what is being provided now is geared for the offence with state-of-the-art lethal precision. The power of the arsenal now in Ukrainian hands shows the shifting nature of the war itself. The aim seems to be an end to the war.

Further arms came from an unlikely source — Russia themselves. Ukraine has taken Russian arms left behind during their retreats. The army, still familiar with the Soviet-style weaponry the Russians were found to be using, has added it to their arsenal.

As of September 2022, Ukraine has been increasingly aggressive in its counter-offensive and has forced the Russians onto the back foot. 

The key to these sudden gains? Its new weapons, tanks, drones, artillery, and ammunition. 

Some of the key players in the battlefield now include Leopard 2 tanks, AHS Krab Self-propelled Howitzer, Challenger 2, M1 Abrams, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Patriot the missile system, Nasams (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System), IRIS-T air defence systems, Himars rocket launcher system, M777 howitzers and Bayraktar TB2 armed drones.

Drone warfare, in particular, has been devastating for both sides. Not only does it help surveil the battlefield and target artillery strikes, but it has also been used as a propaganda tool as well, aimed at lowering enemy morale. Videos of drone attacks have been one of the most accessible combat footage. This can change the perception of the turning tides of war and on this front, Ukraine's drone warfare has been particularly effective.  

The true challenge is training the Ukrainian military enough to use this weaponry. The M1 Abrams, for example, was initially held off by the US due to its complexity. And they have yet to join the battlefield; it could take several months to train troops and ready the vehicles. 

Alongside this, the logistical cost of keeping the new weapons supplied with sufficient ammunition could prove astronomical. According to NATO, the artillery used per day in Ukraine numbers in the thousands. By comparison in Afghanistan, artillery used numbers in the lower hundreds. NATO is considering cheaper alternatives for arms and options to mass-produce ammunition and shells.

Russia still stands strong

Much of the news on Russia's current situation may be exaggerated. One thing is for sure: Putin's war did not progress as initially planned. Weapons, vehicles and battle plans left behind by retreating troops have exposed the holes in their capabilities. But Russia is still resolute. 

As part of Putin's mobilisation drive in September, Russia recalled 300,000 reservists. According to an estimate by UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, Russia has now deployed 97% of its army in Ukraine.

Heavy sanctions by the West, imposed on Russia in the hours after the invasion, were expected to cripple the economy to a grinding halt and though initially there was much damage, it has bounced back significantly and helped sustain the cost of the war.

On 21 February, Putin announced that he would suspend participation in the New START treaty, a key nuclear arms reduction agreement. This dramatic move could potentially mean an increase in nuclear arms production, though it could take years for the process to get underway. 

More importantly, it has alarming connotations and the threat of nuclear war remains looming.

One thing is for certain, the second year of the war will decide much. With both sides planning aggressive counter-offensives, it is very much a do-or-die situation.