A scramble for the Indo-Pacific

A few decades ago, it would have been an astounding notion to put so much stress on the Indo-Pacific. So, what changed?

From the 16th to 18th century, it was Latin America and India. In the 20th century, it was the Middle East. Today, the Indo-Pacific seems to have become the battleground of global powers, fighting to maintain control over the region. 

A few decades ago, it would have been an astounding notion to put so much stress on the Indo-Pacific. So, what changed?

On the surface level, not much. The US has had a long-standing interest in the region, at least in the Middle East, Japan, Taiwan and the Korean peninsula, since the end of the second world war to contain the spread of communism (thanks to the Soviet Union and Mao Ze Dong's communist China) in the region. It fought against the Soviet Union in the Vietnam War and the Korean War and protected Taiwan from a potential Chinese invasion. 

The US had also established a host of military bases in Japan, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, the Marshall Islands, Singapore, Australia, Hawaii, and the British Indian Ocean Territory, which in theory, would give the US an upper hand in any military conflict in the region and also thereby, prevent any escalation to that point.

That being said, the US, until recently, did not have a specific Indo-Pacific Strategy for the region. That changed on 11 February 2022, when Joe Biden, the current US president, presented the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS).

At first glance, the IPS seems to be the compilation of a series of euphemisms like "Advance a free and open Indo-Pacific", "Build connections within and beyond the region", "Drive Indo-Pacific prosperity" etc. But the underlying goal of the IPS is to contain the Chinese expansion in the Indo-Pacific. 

The Chinese Grand Strategy

In 2010, China became the second-largest economy in the world, surpassing its bitter rival Japan. It also became a crucial trade hub as most Western developed nations had been outsourcing the labour-intensive part of their production process to China. With China's exponential economic growth, the Chinese Communist Party, despite previously maintaining a non-interventionist, 'diplomacy first' policy, slowly began to pursue a loftier geopolitical ambition: becoming the regional hegemon in the Indo-Pacific. 

In doing so, China adopted both an economic and security approach to pursue that goal. On the economic front, it first launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 and as of March 2022, 148 countries have joined the initiative. 

Later, China also pioneered the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership  (RCEP) in 2022. As the West claims, China has also disbursed predatory loans under the BRI and then restructured these loans to take control over ports like Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Gwadar in Pakistan, etc. Many pundits claim the purpose of China's apparent benevolent development schemes in many of the developing and least-developed countries was simply to foster willful and/or forceful alliances in the region. 

On the security front, China has aggressively expanded its military capabilities since 2008. In 2016, reports began appearing of China's military bases in the South China Sea. China later opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa in 2017. It has also modernised its military by adopting artificial intelligence into its weaponry. 

China is only part of the concern

The US recognises the Indo-Pacific is home to 58% of the world's youth, half of the world's population, 60% of the world's GDP, and two-thirds of economic growth worldwide. It also contains 25% of the world's land and 65% of its oceans. Keeping open maritime trade routes, North Korea's nuclear threat, China's disputes in the South China Sea and its claims to Taiwan, maritime terrorism, and climate change are just a few of the other pressing issues that have occupied the US's attention in recent decades. So, it is no surprise that in the IPS, the US stated: "strengthening and firmly anchoring the United States in the Indo-Pacific will advance American interests."

In the 1990s, especially following the failure of the Uruguay rounds of discussion at the GATT, most developing and least-developed economies realised that relying solely on agriculture for economic growth would not serve them well in the long run. Consequently, countries like India, Bangladesh, Vietnam etc. began to liberalise their economy and followed the path laid by the ASEAN-10 and China before them. 

Over the next three decades, the Indo-Pacific would become a crucial trading hub for the developed economies. To best exemplify the significance of the region, nine out of the 10 busiest ports in the world are now located in the Indo-Pacific region, more specifically in China, Singapore and South Korea. The region also boasts the most crucial geopolitical chokeholds like the Strait of Hormuz, the South-China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and so on. 

ASEAN is a key player in the region

An essential pillar of China's regional diplomacy is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The 10-member bloc has grown to become the third-largest economy in Asia and the fifth-largest in the globe. It is located around the important canal that connects East Asia with the Middle East and Africa. With a population of 700 million people and policies that are open to the world, the region has enormous growth potential.

Moreover, given the importance of ASEAN, it can also play as a diplomatic bridge between the US and China, especially given the rising tensions in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war. 

The Indo-Pacific Strategy

The US aims to counter China both on the economic front and the security front. The strategy on the economic front is providing countries in the Indo-Pacific with an alternative to China. On the security front, the US is building strategic security ties with countries like India, Australia, Japan and others most at risk of Chinese encroachment. 

On the economic front, the US recently announced the IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework). As per the US announcement, the IPEF consists of 13 founding members, representing nearly 40% of the global GDP.

The US, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, New Zealand, and Brunei are the group's inaugural 13 members, according to a statement released by the Biden administration on Monday. Taiwan, Myanmar. 

The ASEAN nations that support China, Cambodia, and Laos were not included.

Except for India and the United States, 11 of the 13 IPEF members are a part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the largest trade association in the world and a source of 30% of the global GDP. China is a member of the RCEP.  So, it is quite clear that the IPEF is an attempt to provide an alternative to the RCEP and the BRI. 

On the security front, the US has revived the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) to counteract China's string of pearls (a series of ports controlled by China, encircling India) in the Indian Ocean. China claims that the Quad is nothing but the Asian NATO. The US has also formed the AUKUS, a security alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the US. 

The US is also assisting Japan and South Korea to rebuild their military in the face of a looming Chinese threat. It continues to protect Taiwan from being invaded by China, especially since the island in the East China Sea is a crucial supplier of microchips in the US.

China had hoped to aggressively position itself as a superpower in the Indo-Pacific without much US interference. 

And it was partially successful given the US reluctance to engage in the region. But that seems to have changed, especially with the Biden Administration's Indo-Pacific Strategy. That is, the battle to control the Indo-Pacific has just begun.