Trump's pro-corporate populism cannot last

The outpouring of joy on social media after the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson suggests that America's populist moment is evolving into something larger and more significant than just a backlash against the political establishment. If so, it is also becoming something Americans have seen before. In the late nineteenth century, the People's Party, also known as the Populists, targeted big business as well as establishment politicians, blaming large enterprises for both destroying Americans' livelihoods and corrupting the government.

This change could be bad news for Donald Trump. The US president-elect is not the first Republican politician to purport to serve both commerce and the forgotten man, but after campaigning alongside billionaires and inviting them into his administration, he has stretched this claim to the breaking point.

The American Populists were mainly farmers in the South and Midwest whose fortunes plummeted as the country industrialised and as the cultural centre of gravity shifted to the cities. Both major parties neglected agrarian interests as they relitigated the Civil War and sought support from the rising commercial class (in the case of the Republicans) and the expanding ethnic populations in the cities (in the case of the Democrats). Farmers, pummeled by the "Great Deflation" caused by the government's insistence on paying off the war debt, thus took it upon themselves to mobilise, achieving political dominance in several states and greater influence in Congress.

The populists hated government elites in Washington, but they also hated the new businesses, particularly the railroads. The latter, they believed, discriminated against them in the market and corrupted the government through bribes and other forms of political influence. Still, while they considered the entire system to be rotten, they had no clear idea how to reform it. Many Populist leaders hoped a Napoleon-like president would come to power and sweep away big business and big government alike. Since these two forces were linked by tentacles of corruption, only a leader with no roots in conventional politics could achieve this goal.

It is a familiar story. Trump won the presidency in 2016 by attacking the political establishments of both parties, as well as the "deep state" (federal bureaucracy). But, owing to necessity as much as expediency, he rarely attacked the billionaire class to which he belonged. While he blamed the political class for ignoring illegal immigration, globalising trade, and meddling in foreign conflicts – what he sees as the roots of America's problems – he did not oppose big business. Instead, he confined himself to attacking business leaders who criticised him and his programs, along with the social media platforms that he believed were censoring him and his followers.

Unlike in his earlier campaigns, Trump benefited from a kowtowing business establishment in 2024, and he has reciprocated by bringing billionaires into his inner circle. Elon Musk, now Trump's most prominent cheerleader and surrogate, contributed more than $250 million to his campaign. Meanwhile, others – including Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, billionaire investor Nelson Peltz, and Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman – have made their peace with Trump or are trying to. The libertarian wing of Silicon Valley has joined in with great enthusiasm. It will profit mightily when Trump delivers on his promise to deregulate crypto.

But while billionaires' dollars and backing helped Trump win, so did the votes of his most loyal supporters, the vast majority of whom are not wealthy. Many are non-college-educated, lower-skilled workers and religious social conservatives who have grown increasingly hostile toward business. Trump tapped into this hostility by attacking Big Tech and railing against corporate America's attempts to appease the left with diversity programs and climate goals.

The question now is whether anti-corporate populism will grow in the United States as it did 140 years ago. The online celebration of Thompson's murder was not noticeably partisan. Across the board, Americans today have a low opinion of corporate elites, with only 16% telling Gallup that they have a "great deal" or "quite a lot of" confidence in big business. That is less than for nearly all other institutions respondents assessed, including labour unions, the military, organised religion, public schools, higher education, the presidency, and small businesses. Indeed, unions are benefiting from an increasingly anti-business climate, as are government trustbusters.

Europeans must be scratching their heads. America's Big Tech companies may be widely loathed at home, but they are envied on a continent that struggles to create its own innovative wealth creators. The truth, however, is that these companies' huge market capitalisations owe as much to their monopoly status as to innovation. They have long downplayed the significant social harms they do, and they constantly lobby policymakers to block regulation. It is little wonder that their stranglehold on American culture is now deeply resented by left and right alike.

While the 2024 election dashed the hope that America's populist turmoil would end with the Biden administration, it remains to be seen what shape the movement will take. The nineteenth-century Populists petered out as deflation eased and farmers' living standards finally improved toward the end of the century, and as party leaders realised that their best option was to fuse with the Democrats. But the populist impulse did not disappear. In the twentieth century, widespread hostility toward business found a home again in the Democratic Party, and the Republicans became the party hostile toward government.

The incoming Trump administration has vowed to round up illegal aliens and raise tariffs, but it will probably fail to reinvigorate the economy for the masses, who will watch the rich get richer on crypto and AI. If Trump doesn't turn on the business class and lay the blame at its feet, someone else will. Maybe then business elites will finally appear in the political crosshairs, not just in those of lone gunmen.

Eric Posner, a professor at the University of Chicago Law School, is the author of How Antitrust Failed Workers.

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on Project Syndicate, and is published by special syndication arrangement.